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US 10-year yield poised to end 2023 at almost exactly where it started

US 10-year yield poised to end 2023 at almost exactly where it started

After a year of massive swings and numerous head fakes, the US 10-year yield is poised to end 2023 almost exactly where it began.

It’s an almost farcical conclusion to 12 months of trading that saw rates on the benchmark — a global anchor for markets and US mortgage rates — tumble to as low as 3.25 per cent in the wake of March’s banking crisis, only to surpass 5 per cent for the first time in 16 years just a few months later. 

The moves reflect a broader volatility after markets entered the year pricing for a recession, only for a resilient economy underlined by a tight jobs sector to keep the Fed raising interest rates through to their July meeting. That wrongfooted a bunch of Wall Street strategists, yet many are again convinced that 2024 will bring about that long-anticipated slowdown and Fed cuts — even if there are some swings along the way. 

“For the long end of the US Treasury curve, you earned the coupon but — stress adjusted — it felt like you lost money on bonds in 2023,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “2024 will be another volatile year.”

The 10-year yield traded at around 3.86 per cent as of 11:26 a.m. in New York on the final trading day of the year, a touch under its 2022 close of 3.875 per cent. 

That year-end yield is the culmination of a stunning rebound for Treasuries that, as recently as October, saw the 10-year rate as high as 5.019 per cent and the bond market on course for a historic third consecutive year of losses. 

But a subsequent market rally on weakening data has spared money managers, with the late-year boon for bonds only intensifying in mid-December when the Federal Reserve surprised investors by signaling more potential for interest-rate cuts in 2024.

The market is now pricing in more than 150 basis points of cuts for 2024, with traders increasingly betting that the first easing will arrive by March. 

And despite the minuscule move in the 10-year yield year-on-year, the great bond comeback leaves the Bloomberg Treasury index up about 4 per cent for the year.

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GIFT Nifty records $57-billion turnover in first month

GIFT Nifty records $57-billion turnover in first month

Data from the NSE IX show that July figures were higher than preceding months. June had witnessed 1.22 million contracts traded with a turnover of close to $32 billion.

Operations at GIFT Nifty have completed a month, which witnessed 1.47 million contracts traded, with turnover of more than $57 billion. The exchange on July 25 recorded its highest single-day turnover of $12.4 billion, with 314,921 contracts having been traded. Data from the NSE IX show that July figures were higher than preceding months. June had witnessed 1.22 million contracts traded with a turnover of close to $32 billion.

“July was a month of market uptrend. The indices witnessed strong rallies and foreign portfolio investment flows were also positive, which added to the market flavor. “Further, the GIFT City model also attracted investors, leading to higher flows,” said Kranthi Bathini, head of equity strategy at Wealth Mills Securities.

The months of May and April had seen 978,892 and 870,391 contracts traded, recording turnover of $18.41 billion and $18.02 billion, respectively. Earlier known as the SGX Nifty, the exchange was rebranded as GIFT Nifty starting July 3. All derivative contracts, to the tune of $7.5 billion, were shifted from Singapore to the NSE International Exchange at GIFT City. Dollar-denominated contracts of Nifty futures were also shifted to the NSE IX, and would cease trading on the Singapore Exchange, or the SGX.

“After transactions were shifted from Singapore, overall tax benefits, such as tax on transactions and STTs, go to the Indian government, which are encouraging higher participation. “This is the biggest advantage,” said Chandan Taparia, head (technical & derivatives research), Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The NSE had, in an earlier statement, said the numbers were a reflection of growing participation from global investors.The contracts are accessible for 21 hours, spanning across market hours in Europe, the US, and Asia-Pacific.Trading at the GIFT Nifty begins at 6:30 am and remains open till 3:40 pm. The second session starts at 4:35 pm and goes on till 2:45 am, targeting investors from the US and Europe.

The GIFT Nifty essentially provides access to GIFT Nifty50, GIFT Nifty Bank, GIFT Nifty Financial Services, and GIFT Nifty IT derivatives at the international exchange. The stock exchanges that operate out of the GIFT City are permitted to trade in securities of any foreign currency, but not the rupee. The NSE IX allows trading members registered in India or overseas to set up shops at the IFSC via a subsidiary or branch. They can trade in GIFT Nifty products on behalf of clients by getting a membership of the NSE IX.

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Aeroflex Industries gets Sebi’s clearance to float IPO

Aeroflex Industries gets Sebi’s clearance to float IPO

The initial public offering (IPO) consists of a fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs 160 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 1.75 crore equity shares by promoter entities — Sat Industries and Itálica Global FZC, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP).

Stainless steel flexible hose manufacturer Aeroflex Industries Ltd has received capital markets regulator Sebi‘s go ahead to raise funds through an initial share-sale. The initial public offering (IPO) consists of a fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs 160 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 1.75 crore equity shares by promoter entities — Sat Industries and Itálica Global FZC, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP).

The OFS comprises sale of 1.23 crore shares by Sat Industries Ltd and up to 52 lakh shares by Itálica Global FZC. At present, Sat Industries owns 92.18 per cent stake in the company, while Itálica Global FZC holds 6.52 per cent stake. “We have been informed by Aeroflex Industries Ltd, our subsidiary, that it has got clearance from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for its IPO, subject to the submission of requisite documents as per the final observation letter dated July 31,” Sat Industries said in a regulatory filing on Wednesday.

Going by the draft papers, proceeds from the fresh issue will be utilised to the extent of Rs 35 crore for the payment of debt, Rs 84 crore for funding its working capital requirements, and a certain amount will be used for general corporate purposes and acquisitions. According to merchant banking sources, the size of the IPO is estimated at Rs 350 crore.

The Mumbai-based Aeroflex is a manufacturer and supplier of metallic flexible flow solution products, catering to global markets. It exports its products to more than 80 countries including Europe, the US & others and generates 80 per cent of its revenue from exports.

For fiscal 2022, Aeroflex generated consolidated revenue from operations at Rs 240.8 crore and profit after tax (PAT) was at Rs 27.5 crore. Panto math Capital Advisors is the sole book-running lead manager to the issue. The company’s equity shares are proposed to be listed on the BSE and NSE.

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NTPC shares climb 3 per cent; hit 52-week high level after Q1 earnings.

NTPC shares climb 3 per cent; hit 52-week high level after Q1 earnings.

The stock jumped 3 per cent to hit its 52-week high of Rs 216.45 on the BSE.

Shares of NTPC on Monday climbed 3 per cent to reach its 52-week high level after the company posted over 23 per cent rise in consolidated net profit in the April-June quarter of 2023-24. The stock jumped 3 per cent to hit its 52-week high of Rs 216.45 on the BSE.

At the NSE, shares of the company climbed 3 per cent to reach its 52-week high of Rs 216.50. State-owned power giant NTPC on Saturday posted over 23 per cent rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 4,907.13 crore in June quarter of the current fiscal.

In the year-ago period, net profit was Rs 3,977.77 crore, NTPC said in a BSE filing. Total revenue from operations dipped slightly to Rs 43,390.02 crore from Rs 43,560.72 crore in the same period a year ago.

On a standalone basis, total income of NTPC in Q1 FY24 was Rs 39,681 crore as against Rs 40,726 crore earlier. Profit After Tax (PAT) on standalone basis was Rs 4,066 crore as against Rs 3,717 crore in Q1 FY23, registering an increase of 9.39 per cent, it stated.

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TVS Supply Chain Solutions gets Sebi nod to float IPO

TVS Supply Chain Solutions gets Sebi nod to float IPO

The IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 750 crore and an Offer for Sale (OFS) of over 2 crore equity shares by promoters and existing shareholders, according to the draft red herring prospectus.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions, part of TVS Mobility Group, has received capital markets regulator Sebi’s go-ahead to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 750 crore and an Offer for Sale (OFS) of over 2 crore equity shares by promoters and existing shareholders, according to the draft red herring prospectus.

Those offering shares in the OFS include Omega TC Holdings Pte. Ltd, Tata Capital Financial Services Ltd, Mahogany Singapore Company Pte. Ltd, TVS Motor Company Ltd, Kotak Special Situations Fund, Andrew Jones, Ramalingam Shankar, Ethirajan Balaji, Dinesh Narayan, and Sargunaraj Ravichandran .The company, which filed fresh preliminary IPO papers in April, obtained its observation letter on July 18, an update with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) showed on Tuesday. In Sebi’s parlance, its observations mean approval to launch the public issue.

Going by the draft papers, proceeds from the fresh issue will be utilized for payment of debt availed by the company and its subsidiaries — TVS LI UK and TVS SCS Singapore — and for general corporate purposes. TVS Supply Chain Solutions (TVS SCS), an integrated supply chain solutions provider, is present in over 25 countries.

TVS SCS is promoted by the erstwhile TVS Group and is now part of the TVS Mobility Group, which has four business verticals — supply chain solutions; manufacturing; auto dealership, and aftermarket sales and service. JM Financial, Axis Capital, J P Morgan India, BNP Paribas, Edelweiss Financial Services, and Equirus Capital are the book-running lead managers to the IPO.

In addition, the capital markets regulator has given its go-ahead to Pyramid Technoplast to mobilize funds through an initial share-sale. The company filed draft IPO papers in March.

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