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Rupee opens higher and may appreciate further on weakness in the US dollar, risk aversion in global markets

Rupee opens higher and may appreciate further on weakness in the US dollar, risk aversion in global markets

Rupee gained by 11 paise to 81.61 per dollar on Wednesday, up from its previous close amid ease in the value of the greenback against a basket of six peers. Global crude oil benchmarks rebounded putting pressure on the currency. The dollar index was trading 0.1 per cent lower at 101.6. Sharp gains in the local unit were prevented by a rebound in crude oil prices amid optimism on-demand recovery in China. Brent crude futures were trading 0.4% higher at $86.5 per barrel at the last count. WTI futures, too, were trading 0.3% higher at $80.4 per barrel at the last count.

“The RBI protected the sharp appreciation in the rupee by intervening in the spot market around 80.90-81.00 levels, which pushed the speculators to unwind their short positions in the USD. Further, buying of USD by oil companies amid a rise in crude oil prices coupled with FII’s remaining net sellers have mounted pressure on the rupee,” said Amit Pabari of CR Forex. Market participants remain cautious ahead of the important Union Budget that is scheduled next week. Any announcement of a widening of the fiscal deficit could keep the rupee weighed down.

“A tussle between the buyers and sellers is likely to continue as inflows pertaining to Adani FPO and RBI bond issue shall keep the rupee on a stronger note and RBI’s intervention on the other side could limit the gains near 80.80 levels. Well, the broad range would remain between 80.80 to 82.10,” Pabari added.

The US$INR pair is expected to face rejection near the 81.80-82.00 zone and is likely to slide towards 81.30 following an improvement in global risk appetite and weakness in the dollar. The further expectation of weaker US advance GDP numbers, which is due on Thursday could restrict the recovery in the dollar. “The pair is still hovering below the 20-day EMA, which could act as key resistance. As long as it remains below 81.80 the pair is likely to move towards the immediate support at 81.30,” said analysts at ICICIdirect.

According to Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, in the next couple of sessions, advance GDP and core PCE index numbers from the US will be keenly eyed and better-than-expected economic data could extend gains for the dollar. “We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 81.10 and 81.60,” he said.

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Wheat prices hit a fresh record high following a delay in a stock release by the government

Wheat prices hit a fresh record high following a delay in a stock release by the government

Indian wheat prices hit a fresh record high on Monday, following a delay in releasing extra stocks by the government to boost supplies and calm the domestic market reeling from shortages triggered by last year’s lower crop, dealers and farmers said. India, the world’s second-biggest producer of wheat, banned exports in May 2022 after a sudden rise in temperatures clipped output, even as exports picked up to meet the global shortfall triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Record-high wheat prices despite the export ban indicate a far bigger drop in last year’s output, traders say. According to government estimates, wheat output fell to 106.84 million tonnes in 2022 from 109.59 million tonnes a year earlier. “Farmers have sold their crop, traders’ are running out of stocks, but demand is robust,” said Gopaldas Agarwal, a trader based in the central Indian city of Indore. “Demand-supply mismatch is pushing up prices, and prices will remain firm until supplies start from the new season crop.”

Farmers plant wheat in October and November, with harvests from March.

Wheat prices in the Indore market – a benchmark – jumped to a record 29,375 rupees ($361.09) a tonne, up nearly 7 per cent so far this month after rising 37 per cent in 2022. In New Delhi, wheat prices rose almost 2 per cent on Monday to a record 31,508 rupees. Local wheat prices could rise by another 5 per cent to 6 per cent unless the government releases stocks in the next 15 days, said a dealer with a global trading firm. He did not wish to be named in line with his company’s policy.

“Even bulk consumers like wheat flour millers are struggling with lower supplies and higher prices,” said Rajesh Paharia Jain, a New Delhi-based trader. “Clearly, for the government, there is no time for procrastination.” Authorities have repeatedly said the government would offer 2 to 3 million tonnes of wheat from its reserves to help flour millers and biscuit makers to cool record-high prices.

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Gautam Adani plans on IPOs for at least five companies between 2026 and 2028

Gautam Adani plans on IPOs for at least five companies between 2026 and 2028

Asia’s richest man, Gautam Adani, plans to sell shares to the public in at least five companies between 2026 and 2028, helping the port-to-power conglomerate improve debt ratios and broaden its investor base. “At least five units will be ready to go to the market in the next three to five years,” Jugeshinder Singh, Adani Group’s chief financial officer said in an interview. He said Adani New Industries Ltd., Adani Airport Holdings Ltd., Adani Road Transport Ltd., AdaniConnex Pvt Ltd. and the group’s metals and mining units would become independent units.

Singh ​said businesses such as the airport operator are consumer platforms servicing nearly 300 million customers and need to operate on their own and manage their capital requirements for further growth. He said the businesses would need to show they can clear the basic tests of independent execution, operations and capital management before a formal demerger can be implemented. “Scale is already there for the five units,” Singh said. The “airport business is already independent, while Adani New Industries is going strong on the green energy side. Adani Road is demonstrating new build-operate-transfer models to the nation, while the data centre business will grow further. Metals and mining would cover our aluminium, copper and mining services.”

Billionaire Adani has faced criticism over the group’s rapid expansion from a traditional port operator to a sprawling conglomerate with assets including media, cement and green energy that some say has increased debt and financial complexity. Research firm CreditSights red-flagged the Adani Group’s “elevated” leverage last year. The group pushed back against the report, calling leverage ratios “healthy.”

Blistering Rally

Most of the tycoon’s companies have seen a blistering stock rally in the past few years, vaulting Adani up the wealth rankings past Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates to a net worth of almost $121 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Flagship Adani Enterprises Ltd. has surged more than 1,300 per cent since early 2020, Adani Total Gas Ltd. by more than 2,100 per cent, Adani Green Energy Ltd. has jumped more than 900 per cent while Adani Transmission Ltd. by 725 per cent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Adani Enterprises is slated to sell new shares at a discount and allow payments in three instalments when it rolls out a $2.5 billion follow-on offer later this month — an unusual move for one of the country’s major stocks that are designed to attract domestic mom-and-pop investors​. A diversified shareholder base would help make the thinly traded stock more liquid and provide funds to pay down debt. The follow-on offering “is a good first step,” said Chakri Lokapriya, Mumbai-based managing director at TCG Asset Management. “And the proceeds of IPOs of five or six companies can be used to further cut debt.”

Adani Group has consistently aligned itself to support Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s agenda. It has pledged more than $70 billion to help India pivot from being a fossil fuel importer to a generator of renewable energy. “These demergers will result in massive cash flow and make the conglomerate a more valuable platform globally showcasing India’s prowess of infrastructure,” Singh said.

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Gold jumps Rs 433; silver zooms Rs 990 amid strong global trends

Gold jumps Rs 433; silver zooms Rs 990 amid strong global trends

Gold prices jumped by Rs 433 to Rs 57,025 per 10 grams on Friday amid a rally in the metal in the global markets, according to HDFC Securities.

In the previous trade, the precious metal had ended at Rs 56,592 per 10 grams. Silver also zoomed Rs 990 to Rs 69,208 per kg.

“Spot gold prices in the Delhi markets traded at Rs 57,025 per 10 grams, up Rs 433 per 10 grams,” said an analyst at HDFC Securities.

In the overseas markets, gold and silver were trading in green at USD 1,932 per ounce and USD 24.02 per ounce, respectively.

Comex gold prices traded up in Asian hours on Friday supported by safe-haven demand as weak US economic readings and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve members fuelled recession worries, the analyst said.

“Market participants are anticipating a 25 bps rate hike in the February meet, lower than the previous meetings, this is weighing on the US yields as well as supporting bullion,” said Navneet Damani, Senior VP – Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

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Rupee opens lower, and may appreciate on a weaker dollar, and declining crude prices; USDINR to trade in this range

Rupee opens lower, and may appreciate on a weaker dollar, and declining crude prices; USDINR to trade in this range

The Indian rupee opened 15 paise lower at 81.39 per dollar on Thursday against the previous close of 81.24 per dollar. The local unit is expected to appreciate amid a weaker dollar, the decline in crude oil prices, and as long as the USDINR pair stays under the 82 mark. Further, the anticipation of a weaker set of housing and manufacturing data from the US could restrict the recovery of the dollar, according to analysts. “Series of weak economic data from the US has fuelled expectations that Fed will reduce the magnitude of a rate hike and may even pause it, going forward. US$INR 81.20 is key support. A move below would weaken it towards 81.0, followed by 80.80,” said ICICIdirect.

USDINR (Spot) to trade sideways
“Rupee rose sharply after falling the other day on broad weakness in the dollar against its major crosses and as some foreign banks sold the greenback, likely on account of overseas investment into domestic markets. The dollar was weighed down in the latter half of the session after data from the US showed retail sales fell 1.1% in December followed by a 1% drop in November. Today, the focus will be on the Philly Fed Manufacturing index and housing numbers from the US. Better-than-expected economic data could support the dollar at lower levels. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 81.20 and 81.80,” said Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Dollar likely to remain under pressure amid weaker US economic data
“Following weaker US data, the US Dollar index tested its fresh 7-month low, Euro jumped above 1.0880, and the Pound above 1.2430 levels. Whereas, Indian Rupee too appreciated to 81.16 in the late evening of NDF market. However, hawkish comments from a few Fed members helped the US Dollar index to recover the losses from 101.50 to 102.50 levels and led to a fall in Euro, Pound and Rupee. USD is likely to remain under pressure due to weaker US economic data and a long streak of FDI flows. There would be volatile sessions ahead, with resistance near 81.75 to 82.00. Whereas, support is located near the 81.20-30 zone. By any chance, if the pair breaches the support then it could move towards 80.80-80.50 levels,” said Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors.

Short traders may book profit at these levels
“The USDINR 27 January futures contract was unable to sustain above 81.85 and slipped again. On the daily technical chart, we observed that the pair is trading below its resistance level of 81.85 and MACD is also showing negative divergence. Looking at the technical set-up, RSI is fetching below 50 levels and the pair is facing resistance around the 81.85-82.05 zone. The pair is showing weakness on the chart and if it trades below 81.85 levels it could test 81.10-80.95 levels; resistance is placed at 81.85-82.05 levels. Short traders are suggested to book profits as soon as the pair reaches 81.10 levels,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP of Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

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    The Indian rupee opened 15 paise lower at 81.39 per […]

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