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Month: September 2022

Nifty 50 rejig: Adani Enterprises replaces Shree Cement; IRCTC, Adani Total Gas, HAL enter Nifty Next 50

Nifty 50 rejig: Adani Enterprises replaces Shree Cement; IRCTC, Adani Total Gas, HAL enter Nifty Next 50

Gautam Adani-led Adani Enterprises will become part of Nifty 50 from Friday, 30 September, in NSE’s upcoming semi-annual index rejig. Adani Enterprises will replace Shree Cement from the 50-stock index. This is the second Adani stock to be included in the Nifty 50 index after Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. Apart from Nifty 50, changes have been announced in Nifty Next 50, and Nifty IT. Adani group has seven established listed entities, including Adani Green Energy, Adani Power, Adani Total Gas, Adani Transmission, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Wilmar, and Adani Enterprises.

According to earlier estimates by Edelweiss Alternative and Quantitative Research, Adani Enterprises’ inclusion into the Nifty 50 index would have led to inflows of $285 million into the stock. However, according to the research firm’s latest review report dated 28 September, this inclusion will lead to inflows of $336 million. So far this year, Adani Enterprises’ share price has more than doubled, zooming 107.4 percent to now trade at Rs 3,561 per share. Shree Cements’ stock price, meanwhile, is down 23 percent during the same period.

In the last 6 months, Adani Enterprises’ share price is up 86.5 percent, on the other hand, Shree Cements stock is down 10 percent and is trading at a price of Rs 20,963.5 per share. “We at Edelweiss Alternative & Quantitative Research have analyzed the flow impact led by rebalancing and recapping of stocks in key indices (Nifty 50, Nifty Bank, and CPSE Index) and inclusion/exclusion in Nifty Next 50 and Nifty IT,” the report said.

IRCTC, Adani Total Gas, and others enter the Nifty Next 50

Nifty Next 50 index will see the entry of marquee names such as Bharat Electronics, Shree Cements, Adani Total Gas, Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), IRCTC, Mphasis, and Motherson Sumi Wiring India. Moving out of the junior Nifty index will be Adani Enterprises, Dominos operator Jubilant FoodWorks, MindTree, Lupin, Punjab National Bank (PNB), SAIL, and Zydus Lifesciences.

Persistent Systems replaces Mindtree in Nifty IT

For the Nifty IT index, Edelweiss noted that Persistent Systems’ stock will enter the index replacing Mindtree. Inflows towards Persistent Systems (PSYS) will be around $16 million, and outflows from Mindtree would be around $23 million. However, no changes to the Nifty Bank index and Nifty CPSE have been made.

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India defers govt bond index inclusion to next year; $30 bln opportunity pushed back due to operational issues

India defers govt bond index inclusion to next year; $30 bln opportunity pushed back due to operational issues

India has deferred the planned inclusion of the government bonds in the JP Morgan emerging market global index to next year, as was being speculated on the street. The bond inclusion in the global index may have been pushed back to early 2023, as the Government of India still needs to address various operational issues, Reuters reported citing unidentified sources. Earlier, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had predicted the bond index inclusion would happen only in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of the next year. The Indian government began considering listing its securities for inclusion in global bond indices in 2013. However, restrictions on foreign investments in Indian debt meant that the country had to roll out a number of steps before its securities could be eligible.

Goldman Sachs said India bonds could be included in the index with a 10 percent weightage, the maximum for a country in the index, resulting in potential inflows of $30 billion from the move. Meanwhile, Barclays also said India could possibly be added to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate bond index.

If successful, India would be the last major emerging market to be added to the JP Morgan index, according to Reuters. Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley estimated that India’s inclusion could result in additional flows of as much as $30 billion within 10 months into the Indian government bond market. Last year, Morgan Stanley predicted that it could generate $170 billion to $250 billion of inflows over the next decade. “Most of JPMorgan’s index investors are in favor of including India in the index, but think issues such as investor verification and settlement rules need to be ironed out first,” Reuters reported citing three unidentified sources.

Bonds listed on global indices are settled through international platforms, including Euroclear, outside a country’s borders. It may be noted that Russia’s exclusion from the JPMorgan gauges came after it invaded Ukraine. In the Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified, or GBI-EM index, Russia had a weight of about 8 percent before it was removed, and now there are seven countries with a weight of 10 percent each and 13 countries sharing the remaining 30 percent, according to the Morgan Stanley note.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg noted that India was ‘on track to be placed on index watch for inclusion in JPMorgan’s bond index.

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WAPCOS files IPO papers with Sebi; government to divest stake

WAPCOS files IPO papers with Sebi; government to divest stake

Public sector firm WAPCOS Ltd has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to float an Initial Public Offering. The public issue will be a complete Offer For Sale (OFS) of up to 32,500,000 equity shares by the promoter, the Government of India, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP).

WAPCOS provides consultancy, and engineering, procurement, and construction services in the field of water, power, and infrastructure sectors. It comes under the Ministry of Jal Shakti. The company also provides its services abroad, particularly in South Asia and across Africa in the fields of dam and reservoir engineering, irrigation, and flood control.

It has ongoing projects in 30 countries and has been associated with over 455 overseas projects, both completed and ongoing, as per DRHP. The company’s revenue from operations increased 11.35 percent to Rs 2,798 crore in the financial year 2022 while profit after tax rose 14.47 percent to Rs 69.16 crore during the same period.

Some of the listed peers in the segment are Ircon International, Rites, Engineers India, NBCC, and Va Tech Wabag. As on March 2022, the company’s order book stood at Rs 2,533.93 crore and Rs 18,497.33 crore for construction contracts. So far in the current fiscal, the Centre has collected Rs 20,557 crore by way of divestment proceeds through the Life Insurance Corporation of India IPO and Rs 3,000 crore from minority stake sale in ONGC.

The government has pegged the divestment targets at Rs 65,000 crore for the current financial year. IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd and SMC Capitals Ltd are the book-running lead managers for the issue. The equity shares are proposed to be listed on BSE and NSE

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RBI intervening in the forex market to cushion Rupee fall; spends $82.8 bn from forex reserves in 9 months

RBI intervening in the forex market to cushion Rupee fall; spends $82.8 bn from forex reserves in 9 months

The Fed raised the interest rates by another 75bps yesterday, as expected. This is the third back-to-back 75bps rate hike this year by the US central bank. With the latest hike, the Fed fund rate (FFR) now stands in the range of 3.0%-3.25% and is the highest since January 2008. The FOMC revised the median FFR at the end of 2022 up by 100bps to 4.4% from 3.4% in June, indicating a cumulative rate hike between 125bps over the next 2 FOMC meetings this year. For 2023, the median FFR is revised up 4.6% vs. 3.8% in June, suggesting no rate cuts in 2023 and maintaining the terminal rate of 4.6% till 2024.

These projections are much more aggressive than what investors had been pricing earlier. The dot plot projections are suggesting that the Fed will ‘keep at it’ till it can see inflation coming down under its target range. The Fed also made it clear that it is ready to sacrifice growth and is increasing the view that the demand and labor market need to cool off to get the runway inflation under control. The Fed chairman, Jerome Powell repeatedly used the words ‘restrictive interest rates for a longer period’ to emphasize that the central bank’s main goal is to tame inflation that is running hot at 4-decade high levels.

What does it mean for the Indian economy?

A more aggressive tone by the Fed doesn’t spell good news for emerging market currencies including INR. Post yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the DXY index zoomed to 111.78, the highest in 20 years. The INR once again crossed the psychological value of 80 against the dollar, touching a new all-time low of 80.68. The RBI has been continuously intervening in the forex market to cushion the fall in rupee value. This intervention is depleting India’s foreign currency reserves at an accelerated pace. The RBI has already spent $82.8 billion from its forex reserves in 2022 so far, with the reserves currently standing at $550.8 billion as of 9th September 2022 against $642.4 billion last year. The reserves are now equivalent to covering about nine months of import compared to 16 months a year ago.

With the reserves depleting in the past, the RBI will now be more prudent in the extent of its intervention to support the rupee. Going forward, the RBI might let the rupee weaken due to a widening trade balance, elevated global commodity prices, and stretched valuations of INR compared to other Asian currencies. In addition, higher interest rates in major economies globally will put pressure on the RBI to go for a higher rate hike and stay at higher rates for a longer period, which might slow down the domestic economic growth. As Powell said in his press meeting – “There is no painless way to tame inflation”. It might just be the start of the pain.

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Qualcomm-backed drone maker IdeaForge Technology weighs $125 million India IPO

Qualcomm-backed drone maker IdeaForge Technology weighs $125 million India IPO

IdeaForge Technology Pvt., India’s largest drone maker backed by Qualcomm Inc., is considering an initial public offering in Mumbai that could raise about $125 million, according to people familiar with the matter. The company is working with financial advisers on the potential listing, which could happen in the first quarter of 2023, the people said. The Mumbai-based firm is seeking a valuation of about $700 million in the share sale, which could mostly consist of new shares, the people said.

IdeaForge is looking to file a preliminary draft prospectus with the regulator by December, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. Considerations are at an early stage and details of the offering including size and timeline could still change, the people said. A representative for IdeaForge declined to comment.

Founded in 2007, IdeaForge makes drones for India’s armed forces, police, and homeland security as well as industrial applications, according to the company’s website. It is licensed by the Ministry of Defence to manufacture unmanned aerial vehicles. In addition to Qualcomm Ventures, it also counts Infosys Ltd. and Florintree Capital Partners, which was co-founded by former Blackstone Inc. fund manager Mathew Cyriac, among its backers.

India’s IPO activity has slowed significantly amid a global slump on concerns over rising interest rates and a potential recession. Companies have raised about $5.5 billion through first-time share sales in India this year, down by almost half from the $10.2 billion raised during the same period in 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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