Month: January 2021

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India’s gold demand down 35 pc to 446.4 tonnes in 2020; rebound in 2021 likely

India’s gold demand dropped by over a third in 2020 settling at 446.4 tonne on the back of pandemic-induced lockdowns and lifetime high prices, but a rebound this year is most likely, as normalcy returns and steady course of reforms strengthen the industry, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

India’s gold demand fell by 35.34 pc to 446.4 tonne in 2020. In 2019, the total gold demand was 690.4 tonne, according to the WGC’s 2020 Gold Demand Trends report.

Gold demand in value terms in 2020, witnessed a decline of 14 per cent and stood at Rs 1,88,280 crore, compared to Rs 2,17,770 crore in 2019, according to the WGC data.

Meanwhile, the total jewellery demand in volume terms in 2020 was down by 42 per cent at 315.9 tonne, compared to 544.6 tonne in 2019, while in terms of value it dipped by 22.42 per cent to Rs 1,33,260 crore, from Rs 1,71,790 crore largely on account of COVID-related restrictions.

The country’s net gold imports dipped by 47 per cent during 2020 to 344.2 tonne compared to 646.8 tonne in 2019, it added. However, as lockdown eased and normalisation efforts were phased in, imports during the last quarter rose 19 per cent year-on-year, pointing to the positive impact of pent-up demand, according to WGC Managing Director, India, Somasundaram PR.

The fourth quarter (October-December) of 2020, saw improved consumer sentiments as gold demand was down by only 4 per cent at 186.2 tonne, compared to overall demand in the same quarter of 2019 at 194.3 tonne.

“In the fourth quarter of 2020, the festive period and the ensuing wedding season revived hopes and drew in jewellery demand worth 137.3 tonnes, the strongest quarter in the year. Investment demand also showed significant resilience, growing 8 per cent to 48.9 tonnes,” Somasundaram PR told PTI.

He pointed out that this can be expected to continue into 2021 as further normalcy returns and steady course of reforms strengthen the industry.

“With the implementation of mandatory hallmarking in June 2021, establishment of the international bullion exchange in GIFT city and Retail Code of conduct under the aegis of the industry steering committee, industry growth will be qualitatively superior underpinned by global ambitions and strong awareness of trust and transparency,” he said.

From the consumers perspective, there is acceptance of the current high price level as the new normal, he stated.

In addition, current high stock indices and low interest rates will add significant weightage to gold amidst inevitable return of celebrations and festivities, he said.

“We could see a strong spurt in gold demand for the next few years, a repeat of what happened after a sharp drop in 2009. In such a scenario, the current high tax on gold increases the lure of smuggling, so duty cut to reasonable levels is absolutely necessary, along with tax concessions for recycling gold, innovations and digital interventions,” he said.

The year 2021 will likely set a trend of long-term growth in Indian gold demand and the benefits of such growth can be explicitly captured if coordinated policy measures are sustained, making gold a mainstream asset class, he noted.

Once the demand picks up during the second half of this year, gold imports are expected to normalise, he added.

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RIL shares fall 10% in two days, is it just the beginning of 30% downside target?

Reliance Industries Ltd’s (RIL) share price fell 2% on Wednesday morning once again to trade at a low of Rs 1,892 apiece. This is for the second consecutive trading session that Mukesh Ambani’s RIL is among the worst-performing stocks on Sensex. Going by analysts at multinational investment bank Macquarie, this may just be the beginning of the downfall for the oil-to-telecom conglomerate. In a recent report, Aditya Suresh and Abhinil Dahiwale of Macquarie cut their FY22-23 EPS estimates by 3% for RIL with a 12-month target price of Rs 1,350 per share.

The report said that RIL’s headline EPS growth in the October-December quarter was an impressive 9% on-year basis. This, according to Suresh and Dahiwale, was supported by 1% effective tax rate and $106 million investment gain booked in the retail division. “Adjusting for this and adding back an impairment in E&P, on our estimates underlying EPS was down 30% on-year,” they added. In the current fiscal year, it expects core EPS of RIL to fall 10% to nearly Rs 60. During the October-December quarter results, RIL consolidated the refining, chemicals, and fuel marketing businesses into a new ‘Oil-to-Chemicals’ (O2C) division. However, the firm refrained from reporting gross refining margins and the volume of petrochemical production.

Although Jio is now 411 million subscribers strong, Macquarie believes the number will inch up to 500 million by 2023 while raising flags over the slow subscriber addition in recent quarters. ARPU of Jio is now a Rs 151, but still below Bharti Airtel. “We believe Bharti Airtel’s ARPU will remain at a 10%-15% premium to JIO due to better quality customers. To the extent JIO decides to hold off on raising tariffs to grow market share, this would be a downside risk to earnings, with every Rs10 APRU making a ~2.5% impact on group EPS,” they added.

On the retail side, the report said that RIL’s core retail revenue will increase to $50 billion by the financial year 2030. EBIT margins are expected to jump from 4.5% in Financial Year 2021 to 5.5-6% in financial year 2022-23. “A key downside risk to this assumption is the discounting and fulfillment options RIL offers for JioMart,” the report said. In the latest quarterly results, RIL did not provide any category-wise revenue and margin.

For the refining segment, Macquarie expects an improvement from to $6.5/bbl in FY21E and $8-9/bbl in FY22-23. Meanwhile, for chemicals business, the report highlighted that earnings likely peaked in the fiscal year 2019 for the segemnt. “From a peak $5 billion chemicals EBITDA in FY19, we estimate $3.5 billion in FY22-23e driven by lower spreads across the board, the report added. The analysts see a slower recovery in Reliance’s refining and chemical margins, slower pace of ARPU hikes, lower retail margins as JioMart scales up, high competition in retail, higher working capital for retail, higher capex for JIO and retail, and higher minority interests among key reasons for their bearish views on RIL’s stock price.

“RIL consolidated ROE remains <8% even in FY25 on our estimates; we consider this sub-par in view of the current lofty 30x FY22 PE,” the report said. In a ‘bull case’ scenario the brokerage expects the stock to reach a price of Rs 2,050 per share. In its ‘bear case’ scenario the stock is expected to slip to Rs 910 apiece.

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Facebook, Netflix, Google, other FAANG stocks surge under first few days of Joe Biden’s Presidency

The newly sworn-in Joe Biden Administration seems to be good for the five biggest technology stocks on Wall Street. Shares of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google — collectively known as the FAANG stocks, recorded healthy gains during the previous week of trade. Although the 46th US President has so far not done anything particularly for the tech companies but the stock market rally has supported the most notable trade on Wall Street and helped investors make profits.

Facebook shares jumped 9.22% during the week gone by to end at $274 apiece. The share has been under focus for the policy decision of WhatsApp in India where it is looking to take away “meaningful choices” from users according to the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology. Facebook is also facing the ‘antitrust’ litigation in the United States but the same could take years before conclusion and hence investors see no immediate trouble for the share.

Similar to Facebook, shares of Apple gained 9.38% during the previous week. In the current week, the iPhone maker will be reporting its earnings and eyes will be glued on how much the flagship iPhone 12 has generated for the company in terms of revenue. The phone could be a huge money minter for Apple considering its 5G capabilities. Jeff Bezo’s Amazon was also clocking gains, up 6% during the bygone week. The stock closed Friday at $3,292 per share.

Netflix mounted a massive 13% jump during the week. During the week, Reuters reported that Netflix believes it is very close to being FCF positive. This would mean the company would no longer need to look at external borrowing avenues. The Reuters report also added that the company will also explore returning cash to investors through buybacks.

Lastly, the internet behemoth Google’s share price soared 9.55% during the period under review. Google has been the news for its tussle with Australian authorities that want the firm to pay royalties to news organisations for their content. Google in Australia, has threatened to block its search engine in Australia. However, the internet giant has agreed to pay news organisation in France to help them get more traffic through its services.

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Stove Kraft IPO: Issue opens for anchor investors, grey market premium jumps 26%; check price band

The Rs 412.62 crore Stove Kraft initial public offer (IPO) is set to open for subscription on Monday, January 25, in the price band of Rs 384-385 apiece. This will be the fourth public issue of the calendar year 2021, after the just-concluded Indian Railway Finance Corp IPO, and the ongoing Indigo Paints and Home First Finance Company India IPOs. Stove Kraft IPO comprises fresh issue of shares worth Rs 95 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 82.50 lakh equity shares. The anchor investors portion will open for subscription today, January 22, 2021. Stove Kraft shares were commanding a grey market premium of Rs 101 today. The shares were seen trading at Rs 486, implying an upside of 26 per cent over the IPO price in the grey market.

Abhay Doshi, Founder, UnlistedArena.com — dealing in Pre-IPO & Unlisted Shares — told Financial Express Online that as the brand name ‘Pigeon’ which contributes to 80 per cent sales is under dispute which seems to be a concern. The kitchen appliances manufacturer company, Stove Kraft, operates in a highly competitive market and has turned profitable just two years back. Stove Kraft has posted exceptional figures in the first half of FY21. “Owing to the euphoria in the primary market and small issue size for retail participants this might perform well on the listing. Even though Stove Kraft has posted good numbers in the first half of FY21, it would be more canny to watch the further performance before taking long term decisions,” Doshi added.

The OFS consists of 6.90 lakh equity shares by promoter Rajendra Gandhi, 59,300 equity shares by promoter Sunita Rajendra Gandhi, 14.92 lakh shares by Sequoia Capital India Growth Investment Holdings I, and 60.07 lakh shares by SCI Growth Investments II. Investors can bid for a minimum of 38 equity shares and in multiples of 38 shares thereafter for a minimum amount of Rs 14,630. The book running lead managers to the offer are Edelweiss Financial Services and JM Financial. While KFin Technologies Private Ltd will be the registrar to the issue.

Stove Kraft proposes to utilise the net proceeds from the fresh issue towards repayment or pre-payment of certain borrowings availed by the firm and for other general corporate purposes. Stove Kraft IPO is priced at 34.5x PE on a trailing basis. Keshav Lahoti, Associate Equity Analyst, Angel Broking Ltd, said that the company is a kitchen solutions and an emerging home solutions brand. The company is engaged in the manufacture and retail of a wide and diverse suite of kitchen solutions under our Pigeon and Gilma brands, and propose to commence manufacturing of kitchen solutions under the BLACK + DECKER brand, covering the entire range of value, semi-premium and premium kitchen solutions, respectively.

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