Mid, smallcaps outrun large-cap peers in recent market pullback. Will it last?

Midcap and smallcap indices have outrun their large-cap peers in the recent market pullback, shows data even as markets grappled with the recent geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. 

From a level of 21,744 hit on April 7, 2025 on tariff fears, the Nifty 50 index has gained around 9 per cent to 24,260 levels by April 28. The Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty Smallcap 100 indices, however, gained over 10 per cent each during this period, ACE Equity data shows. 

The overall market pullback, according to analysts, has been on account of delay in implementation of higher tariffs by US president Donald Trump. The markets, for now, have also taken geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan following the killing of civilians in Pahalgam recently in their stride.

The mid-and smallcap segments started to outperform once there was some clarity on the tariffs, said Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market expert. Typically in any market pullback, he said, the mid-and small-cap segments always do better as they are the favourite segments of the retail investors.

“I don’t see the overall markets continuing to move up much in the short-to-medium term due to the geopolitical situation between India and Pakistan. Tough Trump tariff fears have now gone into the background, the markets have not yet fully discounted the worst of the geopolitical concerns. As things stand, investors should sell the rallies, but should not empty out their portfolios. It is better to stay in cash for now,” Baliga advises.

Movers and shakers 

Among individual stocks that comprise the mid-and smallcap segments on the NSE, Dixon Technologies, Waaree Energies, Data Patterns (India), Godfrey Phillips India, Devyani International, AU Small Finance Bank and KFin Technologies are some of the counters that have gained over 20 per cent during the above-mentioned period, ACE Equity data shows. 

HDFC AMC, IDFC First Bank, Indiamart Intermesh, MRF, Coforge, L&T Finance, CDSL, Oil India, PVR Inox are some of the other prominent stocks that rallied between 15 per cent to 20 per cent, shows data.

Indian stock markets, according to G Chokkalimgam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, would continue to recover in the short-term and suggest investors focus on domestic demand-driven stocks to minimize risk. 

“Highly conservative investors might keep 50 per cent allocation to large cap (top 100) stocks as DIIs would continue to focus on the large cap segment in any possible event of market stress. Those who have an appetite for risk can consider 60 per cent to 70 per cent allocation to quality small-and mid-cap stocks with focus largely on domestic demand for possible wealth creation,” he said.

Tech view 

On the technical front, the Nifty, said Sameet Chavan, head of research (technical and derivative) at Angel One, has confirmed a strong bullish breakout on the charts as it surpassed the February-March swing highs.  

If geopolitical tensions escalate or the 23,900 – 23,800 support for the Nifty is breached, he expects a deeper correction towards the 23,500–23,300 levels.

“On the upside, while the broader trend remains bullish, Nifty has an immediate resistance at 24,250–24,350 levels. A move above this zone would confirm a continuation of the primary uptrend. Traders should stay cautious and monitor these key levels, as the next leg of the move may not be as smooth as the recent rally. A selective approach toward midcap stocks is advisable,” Chavan said.

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Markets too optimistic in its earnings estimates, suggests Kotak report

The markets are being too optimistic in their earnings estimates of India Inc., suggested Sanjeev Prasad, managing director and co-head of Kotak Institutional Equities in a recent note co-authored with Suvodeep Rakshit, Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa. 

“Consensus earnings estimates for fiscal 2025-26 (FY26) and FY27 have seen downgrades in a few sectors and companies. We assume there will be more, as global and domestic growth slowdowns hit revenues. For now, we model 12 per cent growth in the net profits of the Nifty-50 Index for FY26,” Prasad wrote.

The market, Prasad believes, has become complacent and hence has staged a bounce back from tariff-related lows even as the issue has not been resolved and has just been pushed back by 90 days.

EPS estimates from Kotak Institutional Equities

“The fact that the market is trading above “Liberation Day” levels would suggest that all issues have been fixed. In reality, global and domestic gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be likely lower; the reciprocal tariff and trade issues will take a long time to resolve; earnings have been cut further; and multiples continue to be rich across sectors and companies, including the large-caps,” the note said.

Key assumptions 

The markets, Prasad believes, may be too bullish on revenues of export-oriented sectors such as automobiles, IT services, potentially pharmaceuticals and specialty chemicals in light of high levels of uncertainty on global gross domestic product (GDP) growth and tariffs in the US. 

High tariffs in the case of automobiles, KIE believes, will adversely affect the revenues of automobile companies such as Bharat Forge, Tata Motors, among others. 

Nifty earnings estimates 

Very few Indian companies, the note said, have operations in the US and will be at a severe disadvantage versus automobile companies with manufacturing facilities in the US in case the US was to continue with the current tariffs on automobiles and components. 

A delayed decision-making of the clients of IT services companies may affect the revenues of the companies in this space. Valuations of IT stocks, Prasad cautioned, are well ahead of pre-pandemic levels, when growth rates were meaningfully higher.  

“They certainly do not factor in a deep slowdown or recession in the US. A deep slowdown or a recession in the US will affect both revenues and profitability negatively,” the note said. 

That apart, the markets, he said, may also be overly optimistic on profitability of companies in the consumption sector by assuming that the companies will be able to retain the benefits of lower raw material prices.

“The Street is banking on companies being able to retain a meaningful portion of the assumed decline in raw material prices. Even assuming prices of agricultural products were to decline along the expected lines of the Street and prices of crude oil and related inputs were to stay at current low levels, it remains to be seen if the companies can retain the benefits of lower raw material prices,” the note said.

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RIL adds ₹ 1 trillion to investor wealth as stock rallies 6% post Q4 show

Reliance Industries (RIL) share price today 

Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) have moved higher by nearly 6 per cent, hitting six-month high of  ₹ 1,374.90 on the BSE in Monday’s intra-day trade amid heavy volumes after the company reported a better-than-expected March 2025 quarter (Q4FY25) results. The stock is trading at its highest level since October 22, 2024 (adjusted to bonus issue). On October 28, 2024, RIL turned ex-bonus in the ratio of 1:1 i.e. one bonus share for every share held in the company as on record date. At 01:58 PM; RIL shares were trading 5.5 per cent higher at ₹ 1,371.60, as compared to 1.3 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex. The average trading volumes on the counter jumped 1.5 times, with 25.24 million equity shares changing hands on the NSE and BSE.

RIL adds ₹ 1 trillion to investor wealth

 A sharp rally in stock price has seen RIL adding ₹ 1 trillion to investor wealth. RIL’s market capitalisation (market cap) touched ₹ 18.60 trillion in intra-day trade today, adding ₹ 1.01 trillion market cap in investor wealth. The company’s market cap stood at ₹ 17.59 trillion on Friday, April 25, 2025, the BSE data shows. 

Better-than-expected Q4 results

 The Mukesh Ambani-led oil-retail-telecom conglomerate – RIL – reported a 2.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in its consolidated net profit at ₹ 19,407 crore for the quarter ended March 2025 (Q4FY25); backed by a 10.5 per cent YoY growth in revenue at ₹ 2,61,388 crore.   The performance was driven by its consumer-facing business (retail and telecom), but its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division remained under pressure. The company also said it had become the first Indian corporate entity to post a net-worth exceeding ₹10 trillion. RIL numbers were much higher compared to Bloomberg analysts’ poll expectations. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the company’s net profit was up 4.7 per cent, and income up 8.9 per cent. 

Brokerage view – BNP Paribas India

 RIL’s Q4FY25 operating profit was in line with the brokerage firm’s estimates. Its consumer business (Jio and retail) reported strong results while its largest division (O2C) continued to face headwinds due to lower refining margins and increased capacities. FY25 has been a year of consolidation for RIL with low single-digit growth in operating profit and earnings but analysts at brokerage house expect a recovery in FY26. “We see the continued ramp up of its consumer ventures (telecom, retail, media) and commissioning of its new energy projects as the growth drivers for RIL while the O2C outlook remains uncertain. Changes to our estimates are not material. Our SoTP based target price rises by 1 per cent to ₹ 1,685,” BNP Paribas India said in the result update.

Brokerage view – ICICI Securities

 The key positive is that 5G adoption is progressing well with 191 million (vs. 170 million in Q3) subscribers (~39 per cent of the overall base) already migrated and 45 per cent of the overall data being consumed on 5G. The company continues to see 5G as medium to long term enabler of higher data usage and APRU (Average Revenue per User) driver along with its effort on home broadband wherein it added 1.5 million subscribers in the quarter through acceleration of JioAirFiber. Total fixed subscriber base stood at ~18.5 million including ~5.6 million from JioAirFiber. Going ahead, any development on IPO timing as well as valuations to be a key monitorable along with industry move on further tariff hike in FY26. 

Brokerage view – JM Financial Institutional Securities

 The brokerage firm reiterates BUY (target price of ₹ 1,580) as expected net debt to decline gradually, and also because RIL has industry leading capabilities across businesses to drive robust 15-20 per cent EPS CAGR over the next 3-5 years, particularly driven by both consumer businesses. Clarity on the potential timeline and valuation of Jio’s listing could be a possible near- to medium-term trigger. 

About Reliance Industries

 RIL is engaged in activities spanning across hydrocarbon exploration and production, Oil to Chemicals (O2C), Retail and Digital Services. The O2C business portfolio spans transportation fuels, polymers and elastomers, intermediates, and polyesters. The O2C business includes world-class assets comprising refineries and petrochemical units that are deeply and uniquely integrated across sites along with logistics and supply chain infrastructure. The RIL O2C business includes a 51 per cent equity interest in a fuel-retailing JV with bp – Reliance BP Mobility Limited (RBML) – operating under the brand name Jio-bp, and a 74.9 per cent equity interest in Reliance Sibur Elastomers Private Limited (RSEPL). Reliance Retail, India’s largest retailer, operates an integrated network of stores and digital commerce platforms, catering to diverse consumer needs across electronics, fashion, grocery and connectivity consumption baskets. Reliance Jio is redefining India’s digital landscape by building robust infrastructure for affordable connectivity and services.

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Toyota chairman proposes record buyout of its supplier at $42 bn valuation

Toyota Motor Corp. Chairman Akio Toyoda has proposed a buyout of Toyota Industries Corp., people familiar with the matter said, seeking to consolidate his grip on Japan’s biggest business empire as a wave of merger and acquisition activity roils the country. 

The proposal values Toyota Industries, which makes looms for textile manufacturing as well as parts for Toyota’s cars, at ¥6 trillion ($42 billion), one of the people said, a roughly 40 per cent premium over its market capitalization at the close Friday. 

Toyota Industries, the company founded by Toyoda’s great-grandfather Sakichi that ultimately birthed the world’s No. 1 carmaker, formed a special committee after receiving the proposal and hired advisers to review its viability, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

Although Akio is chairman of Toyota Motor, his direct ownership of the company stands at less than 1 per cent, while Toyota Industries has a 9.1 per cent stake in the carmaker. The buyout would bolster Akio’s holding and influence over the broader Toyota group, which includes suppliers and stakes in other businesses, including rival carmakers.

A deal would rank among the biggest buyouts on record globally. Discussions are still ongoing and the deal may not proceed in its current form, or at all. 

In a statement, Toyota Motor said it was considering various possibilities, including a partial investment in Toyota Industries, but nothing has been decided. Toyota Industries said in an emailed statement that it’s considering all possibilities, including capital policies, to enhance the corporate value of the group, but no decisions have been made.

The Toyota Industries buyout proposal comes months after the collapse of a similar bid to take Japanese retailer Seven & i Holdings Co. private. 

Led by its founding Ito family, that plan’s failure due to lack of funding has raised the chances of a takeover by Canadian rival Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. The liberalization of capital flows in the country, along with a push for greater governance and accountability to shareholders, has challenged longstanding ties between management and stakeholders that emphasized stability. 

“While we have seen the unwinding of cross-shareholdings within the Toyota group over the past two years, we have been focusing on Toyota Industries as the ‘final boss’ of corporate governance reforms,” Masahiro Akita, a Tokyo-based equity analyst at Bernstein, said in a note reacting to Bloomberg’s report. “Increasing regulatory and market focus on corporate governance should trigger a realignment of the parent-subsidiary listing structure, including Toyota and Toyota Industries.”

If the Toyota Industries bid proceeds, financing will comprise of personal investment by Akio Toyoda, along with loans from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Japan’s other megabanks, said one of the people. 

Akio, 68, stepped aside as Toyota Motor’s chief executive officer in 2023 after leading the family business for 14 years, handing the job over to then-Lexus chief Koji Sato. Even so, the grandson of the carmaker’s founder wields outsize influence over the company.

Waning Support

In recent years, however, Toyota Motor shareholders’ support for Toyoda has dwindled. More than a quarter of votes cast opposed his reappointment, partly over the company’s handling of vehicle-safety certifications. His share of affirmative votes dropped to 72 per cent, from 85 per cent and 96 per cent in the prior two years.

For all that resistance, Toyoda’s insistence that Toyota stay the course with a “multi-pathway” strategy that leaves room for gas-electric hybrid powertrains is paying off. The company has extended its lead as the world’s top-selling carmaker as the broader industry’s transition to fully electric vehicles slows. At ¥42.5 trillion, Toyota is the world’s second-most valuable auto company, after Tesla Inc. 

It’s not clear whether a successful buyout of Toyota Industries would change Toyoda’s participation on the carmaker’s board. While now smaller and lower-profile than the auto giant, Toyota Industries has a hallowed position in the Toyoda family lore.

Its history goes back 135 years, when Sakichi improved upon loom designs to manufacture textiles, which at the time were an important export for Japan. His son, Kiichiro, founded Toyota Motor in 1937. 

The two companies are still deeply intertwined. Toyota Motor and its affiliates own about 38 per cent of the shares in Toyota Industries, while Toyota Fudosan Co., the real estate company that counts Akio as its chairman, owns 5 per cent.

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Tesla refunds early India bookings for Model 3 signaling entry is near

Tesla Inc.’s India office is refunding early bookers of its Model 3, according to emails seen by Bloomberg News, sparking speculation the American electric vehicle maker is nearing a roll out in the world’s third-largest automobile market.  

“We would like to return your reservation fee for the time being,” read the emails to customers who had made these bookings back in 2016. “When we finalize our offerings in India, we will reach out in the market again. We hope to see you back with us once we are ready to launch and deliver in your country.”  

The Elon Musk-led car maker is refunding the years-old bookings since the older generation of the Model 3 is being discontinued. 

The emails, sent from Tesla domains, are the latest sign that the car maker is planning to start sales in the South Asian nation after a years of pushing back on its high import duties. 

Days ago, Musk said in a post on X that he’ll visit India later this year, at a time when India is negotiating a trade deal with the US, which may involve lowering tariffs on automobiles. 

A more favorable tariff structure may reshape Tesla’s long-term plans. Its worldwide vehicle deliveries fell last year for the first time in more than a decade, as BYD Co. continues to pose a daunting challenge.  

An email to Tesla’s APAC office wasn’t immediately answered outside of business hours in India. 

For India, Teslas on the streets would please its increasingly affluent upper-middle class population, but risks hurting domestic car makers that employ thousands of people in manufacturing plants.

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