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Month: March 2022

Nifty heading to 18100 after base formation, Bank Nifty aiming for 38000; Metals, IT stocks to outperform

Nifty heading to 18100 after base formation, Bank Nifty aiming for 38000; Metals, IT stocks to outperform

Domestic benchmark indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 have recovered strongly in the last few trading sessions. Nifty 50 bounced back from the key support of 16800 and now could be heading towards 18100, said technical analysts at ICICI Direct. “Benchmarks reclaimed half the ground lost over the past six months as the cluster of support in the vicinity of 52 week’s EMA generated buying demand after markets moved to an oversold trajectory,” analysts said in a report. The banking index is also expected to surge higher in the coming weeks and test 38000 levels as volatility cools down on Dalal Street.

Nifty heading up as volatility cools down
Chartists at ICICI Direct said that their buy on dip strategy has worked so far for investors as the index climbed the wall of worries after digesting a host of concerns owing to the geopolitical issues, Fed rate hike, rise in VIX and crude oil prices. Now, they believe, the Nifty has formed a strong base above 52 week’s EMA that has set the stage to retest the upper band of the falling channel at the 18100 mark. The 18100 target is the confluence of 80% retracement of the entire corrective phase since October 2021 (18604-15671). Key support is placed at 16800.

Additionally, the cooling-off of the India VIX gauge is also seen as a positive for equities. India VIX is just above 20 levels on Thursday down from 28 levels a month ago. “Historically, a cool off in VIX after a spike above 30 levels signifies an intermediate bottom is in place for equities that leads to decent rally in the near term,” the report said.

Buy Bank Nifty on dips, target 38000
“Dips should be used as a buying opportunity. We expect the index to resolve above last two week’s highs (36800) and gradually head towards 38000 in the coming month,” said analysts at ICICI Direct. They added that the recent breather of the last two weeks should not be seen as negative, instead, it should be capitalised on as a buying opportunity in quality banking stocks. “We expect the index to resolve above last two week’s highs (36800) and gradually head towards 38000 in the coming month as it is the 80% retracement of the February-March decline (39424-32155).”

Sectors to watch out
On the charts, the metal Index has witnessed a breakout above the last five month’s range. “It has seen an improvement in both relative and movement terms and is currently at the out-performer quadrant. We expect metal stocks to continue their outperformance,” ICICI Direct said. Further IT stocks are also in the out-perform quadrant. Analysts noted that banking and realty stocks are now seen to be resuming up-move after the recent profit booking, thus providing a bargain buy opportunity along with auto stocks.

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Tata Coffee rallies nearly 13 pc; Tata Consumer jumps over 5 pc

Tata Coffee rallies nearly 13 pc; Tata Consumer jumps over 5 pc

Shares of Tata Coffee rallied nearly 13 per cent on Wednesday after Tata Consumer Products announced the merger of all businesses of the company with itself as part of a reorganisation plan. Tata Coffee shares jumped 12.91 per cent to Rs 221.60 on the BSE.

The stock of Tata Consumer Products also rallied 5.28 per cent to Rs 782.50. Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TCPL) on Tuesday announced the merger of all businesses of Tata Coffee Ltd with itself as part of a reorganisation plan in line with its strategic priority of unlocking synergies and efficiencies.While the plantation business of Tata Coffee Ltd (TCL) will be demerged into TCPL’s wholly-owned arm TCPL Beverages & Foods Ltd (TBFL), the remaining business of TCL, consisting of its extraction and branded coffee business, will be merged with TCPL, the company said in a statement.

The demerger to happen as the first step and the merger to happen as the immediate second step, both being proposed through a composite scheme of arrangement.Under the scheme, shareholders of TCL (other than TCPL) will receive an aggregate of 3 equity shares of TCPL for every 10 equity shares held by them in TCL.This will be carried out through the issuance of 1 equity share of TCPL for every 22 equity shares of TCL in consideration for the demerger.

For the merger, 14 equity shares of TCPL will be issued for every 55 equity shares of TCL, it added.”This will enable the consolidation and 100 per cent ownership of the branded, extractions & plantations business of TCL into TCPL and its wholly-owned subsidiary,” it said.

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PVR-INOX merger: Shares soar upto 20%, hit record 52-week highs; brokerage sees upside on PVR, INOX stock

PVR-INOX merger: Shares soar upto 20%, hit record 52-week highs; brokerage sees upside on PVR, INOX stock

Shares of PVR and INOX Leisure opened at a record 52-week high on Monday, after the two cinema operators announced their merger. The combined entity is expected to become the largest film exhibition company in India, with over 1500 screens. Shares of PVR jumped 10% at Rs 2010.35 per share on the Bombay Stock Exchange, while shares of INOX Leisure soared nearly 20% to Rs 563.60 per share on the benchmark stock index. Brokerage firm JM Financial sees an upside of 47% on Inox stock and an upside of 28% on PVR’s stock from Friday’s close.

Share swap agreement favours INOX

INOX will merge with PVR in a share swap ratio of 3 shares of PVR for every 10 shares of INOX, the companies announced in separate stock exchange filings on Sunday. The combined entity will be rebranded PVR INOX Ltd and will have a network of 1546 theatres.

In the deal, however, the swap ratio favours Inox shareholders slightly, using current market caps as the benchmark, JM Financial said Monday. “A 15x target multiple on the combined EBITDA would yield a Mar’23 TP (target price) of INR 2,300 per share for the post-merger PVR stock and INR 690 for Inox. In such a scenario, we see 47% upside on Inox and 28% upside on PVR vs Friday’s close,” the brokerage added.

Game changing event

Investec said the announcement of a merged entity translates into a game changing event in the film exhibition industry. “We believe there will be revenue and cost synergies across several line items and will result in the merged entity to be more profitable and more valuable as compared to sum of its parts,” it said in a note. The combined company will constitute total nearly half of total multiplex screens and about 28% of total domestic theatrical revenue, it added.

JM Financial also said the merged entity would offer complementarity in geographies, provides some scope for ‘premiumisation’ especially w.r.t Inox’s metrics, and will likely offer cost synergies.

OTT platforms: A challenge

Brokerage Motilal Oswal said Monday it maintains a Neutral rating on PVR stock at target price of Rs 1600 apiece, adding that it sees digital platforms pose a risk to cinema operators. “The rich valuation it commanded historically was led by strong growth. The screen addition opportunity does provide an ability to continue its strong growth. However, OTT platforms pose a risk of shrinking the exclusive period, softening occupancies, and lower screen economics,” Motilal Oswal said.

Cinemas, like other service sectors, were among the worst affected following the COVID-19 pandemic. OTT (over the top) or the digital space has since emerged as a strong contender to cinema operators. In the merger announcement, the companies acknowledge the challenge posed by OTT. “The film exhibition sector has been one of the worst impacted sectors on account of the pandemic and creating scale to achieve efficiencies is critical for the long term survival of the business and fight the onslaught of digital OTT platforms,” Ajay Bijli, Chairman and Managing Director of PVR said.

Motilal Oswal said domestic theatricals contribute the highest source of film revenue, but the share of Digital/OTT is rising. Share of domestic theatres to film’s revenue has fallen marginally to 60% in 2019 to 62% in 2017, while the share of OTT platforms to the revenue of a film has risen to 10% in 2019 from 5% in 2017, the brokerage added.

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Jefferies sees this Indian stock as an attractive China+1 play, expects up to 44% upside

Jefferies sees this Indian stock as an attractive China+1 play, expects up to 44% upside

Anupam Rasayan shares are expected to surge as the company is seen as an attractive China+1 play by global brokerage and research firm Jefferies. “Anupam Rasayan is well-positioned to benefit from ‘China + 1’ with its diversified chemistry expertise, wide customer base and presence across multiple verticals,” said Jefferies as it initiated the coverage of the chemical manufacturer. Analysts added that the 16% year-to-date correction in Anupam Rasayan share price makes the stock’s valuations favourable now. Shares were trading at Rs 883 per share on Friday afternoon.

Target price discussions

In the base case scenario, Jefferies analysts predict Revenue CAGR 33% over FY21-24E helped by new contracts and a target price of Rs 1,040 per share. This implies around 17% upside from current levels. However, under more favourable conditions, the stock is expected to rally to Rs 1,270 per share target, around 44% higher than the current market price. For such a situation to occur, analysts expect revenue CAGR of 35% over FY21-24E and EBITDA margins to remain flat at 27% over FY22-24E. 

A bearish scenario, where revenue grows 29% over FY21-24E, could see the stock plummet to Rs 690 per share.

China+1 play

“China’s climate goals have impacted the smooth functioning of its chemical industry,” Jefferies said in the note. China plans to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To attain this the country has decided to decrease energy intensity by 13.5% by as early as 2025. Jefferies added that the CSM revenue CAGR of Indian players (35% over FY18-21) has outstripped their Chinese counterparts (16%), suggesting a gain in market share.

With the EU’s share in the sector declining over the past decade, it was China and India that were the key beneficiaries, With China now fizzling out, India is set to capitalise on it.

Anupam Rasayan an attractive play

The company offers competency across various products. “No single chemistry contributes more than 12% of ARIL’s revenues,” Jefferies said. The company provides CSM services to agro chem, personal care, pharma, pigments, and dyes verticals, which diversifies its revenue streams, the brokerage firm said. The diversification also reduces Anupam Rasayan’s vulnerability to any slowdown in the global agrochemical cycle.

Anupam Rasayan derives 35% of its revenues from its top 3 customers and 82% from the top 10. Management has suggested that the revenue contribution from the top ten customers will decline over the next three fiscal years. Further, analysts added that Anupam Rasayan has announced firm contract wins of Rs 8.2 billion and LOI of Rs 18 billion over FY22 YTD. Contracts are spread over 3-5 years and include around Rs 1 billion of revenues that have been converted from short-term to long-term.

Since listing a year ago the stock has gained nearly 80% so far. Among major risks around the stock is the small size of its core R&D team, which creates key-man risk.

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India imported 651.24 tonne gold in 2020-21 fiscal

India imported 651.24 tonne gold in 2020-21 fiscal

India imported 651.24 tonnes of gold in financial year 2020-21 as compared to 719.94 tonnes in the year-ago period, the government said on Wednesday.

In a written reply to the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Anupriya Patel said the imports stood at 982.71 tonnes in FY 2018-19.

Replying to another question, she informed that the import of toys, games, sports equipment from China is showing a declining trend.

“The imports of these products from China have reduced from USD 451.71 million in 2018-19 to USD 206.11 million in 2021 (from April 2021 to Jan 2022),” she added.

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