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Month: October 2022

Nifty likely to head towards 18600 by December, Bank Nifty looks to hit 42900; buy SBI, Reliance for gains

Nifty likely to head towards 18600 by December, Bank Nifty looks to hit 42900; buy SBI, Reliance for gains

Equity benchmarks concluded the truncated week on a positive note amid volatile global cues. The Nifty settled the monthly expiry week at 17787, up 1.2%. The broader market performed in tandem with the benchmark as the Nifty midcap gained 1%. Sectorally, Auto, PSU, and metal remained at the forefront while FMCG took a breather. The Nifty started the monthly expiry week on a positive note and subsequently witnessed range-bound activity. As a result, weekly price action formed a small bull candle carrying a higher high-low, indicating a continuance of positive bias. We reiterate our positive stance and expect Nifty to gradually head towards 18100 in the coming week amid the progression of the earnings season.

Structurally our constructive bias remains intact which makes us confident that the index will resolve above the 18100 mark and eventually head towards 18600 by December 2022. Thereby, a temporary breather from hereon should be used as buying opportunity as we do not expect key support of 17300 to be breached. Our positive stance is based on the following observations:
– Breakout from the past three week’s consolidation (17500-16900) augurs well for heading toward the implicated target of 18100
– Historically, over the past two decades, Q4 returns for Nifty have been positive (average 11% and minimum 5%) on 15 out of 21 occasions (70%). History favors buying dips from hereon
– Indian equities continued to outperform their global peers, showing inherent strength
– The Dollar index has registered a breakdown from four weekly ranges while US Dollar/INR pair retreated from an upper band of a long-term rising trend line placed at 83.30. Going ahead, further cool-off in the Dollar index would provide stability in the rupee against the US dollar and support Indian equities in the coming weeks.
– The Russell 2000 index has resolved out of four weeks of base formation, indicating rejuvenation of upward momentum. We believe, the Nifty midcap index has undergone strong base formation and expect to catch up with activity in the coming weeks

Sectorally, we expect BFSI, IT, Capital Goods, Consumption, and PSU to outperform. Our preferred large caps are State bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Maruti, Reliance Industries, Infosys, Titan, Coal India, and Sun Pharma while preferred midcaps are CUB, Bank of Baroda, Concor, Granules, Coforge, ABFRL, HAL, SCI, VIP, Cummins India Structurally, formation of higher high-low on the weekly chart signifies revival in upward momentum that makes us confident to retain support base at 17300 as it is a confluence of:
a) 50% retracement of past two weeks’ rally 16950-17839
b) 50 days EMA is placed at 17355

Broader market indices have formed a higher base above 100 days EMA. We expect, the Nifty midcap and small-cap indices to resolve higher and witness catch-up activity against Nifty amid the advancement of earning season

Bank Nifty Outlook

The Bank Nifty traded in a range and closed marginally higher during the previous week to gain for the fourth consecutive week. The index closed at 40990 levels up by 0.5%. PSU banking stocks on expected lines continue to outperform with the PSU bank index closing the week higher by more than 5%. The weekly price action formed a small bear candle as it started the week on a positive note. However, profit booking at higher levels saw the index give up its gain to close the week marginally higher. Going forward, we reiterate our positive stance as we expect the index to surpass the all-time high (41840) and extend the current up move towards 42900 levels in the coming month being the 123.6% external retracement of the recent breather (41840-37386).

Dips on account of global volatility should not be constructed as negative instead should be used as a buying opportunity. Nifty PSU banking stocks continue to outperform and the PSU bank index has recently posted a resolute breakout above CY21 highs and the past five years’ downtrend line indicating a strong structural uptrend. While large caps have seen strong traction, we expect smaller PSU banks to catch up and witness strong upward momentum. Structurally, in the Bank Nifty rallies are getting faster and stronger while corrections are shallow, underpinning inherent strength. It has recently generated a faster retracement on the higher degree as an eight-month decline (41829-32990) was completely retraced in just two and half months highlighting a robust price structure.

Amongst momentum oscillators, weekly stochastics remain in an uptrend and has recently generated a buy signal thus supporting the positive bias in the index. The Bank Nifty has support at the 39800 mark being the confluence of the (a) 38.2% retracement of the last four weeks up move (37387-41530) placed at 39850 (b) the 20 days EMA currently placed at 40030 levels.

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No country better than India in using tech to protect clients’ securities: SEBI chief

No country better than India in using tech to protect clients’ securities: SEBI chief

There is no country in the world in terms of “margin protection” better than India where technology is extensively used to protect clients’ securities, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch said on Friday.

The SEBI chief said that foreign investors often tell her that she was fortunate to have in the country a culture of data and technology, which is making the role of the capital market regulator effective.

“There is huge technology change in the entire market. It has never been done anywhere in the world ever…and we did it in India. So, today in terms of margin protection – the protection of client’s securities – there is nobody better in the world than India,” Buch said in her lecture on ‘Data and Technology in the Capital Market’.

The Indian Institute of Management-Bangalore organized the event to mark its 49th Foundation Day celebrations on Friday.

Explaining how data is used for surveillance to check malpractices during trading, the SEBI chairperson said the study of algorithm and alerts make it easy to study the trading pattern of people and understand that this is ‘insider trading.

SEBI has also embedded a QR code which, Buch said, was quite radical. When it is scanned, one can see a video clip showing the ‘Delta’ positions of the particular individual whose trading pattern is reflected.

“You look at that film, and you say, ‘this is insider trading. This cannot be anything else. So, we use data in our surveillance,” the SEBI chief explained.

The regulatory body is also using technology to check ‘front running’ in the mutual fund market.

She, however, said SEBI too had some setbacks because the regulation has not kept pace with technology but it is trying to fix the problem in the next few months.

The SEBI chief said the board is now using ‘Suptech’ or Supervisory Technology as well to inspect and make sure that everybody’s following the rules.

Citing an example from the mutual fund industry, she said SEBI started collecting data from all the 44 mutual fund houses operating in the country.

As the data started coming in, SEBI told the industry that they are going to develop 80 algorithms and explained to them the logic and the interpretation of SEBI laws in the light of the algorithm emanating from the data.

According to Buch, many of her colleagues were quite upset as they were against revealing the algorithm and questioned the objective behind it. Buch, however, said she gave an explanation that satisfied them.

“The objective of the regulator is not to catch people doing bad things but to prevent them from doing bad things. So, we declared that we are now going to make this 80 algos,” she explained.

Today, SEBI conducts inspections every quarter, which otherwise could be done on a daily basis, because the board wanted to give the industry time to find their own mistakes and fix them instead of showing up every day, Buch said.

“Now, this is only the beginning because this is the easy stuff. So, what’s the tough stuff? The tough stuff is where you have to try and find violations of the spirit of the law, and not the letter of the law,” the SEBI chief said.

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Utkarsh Small Finance Bank gets SEBI nod for IPO; offers the entirely fresh issue of Rs 500

Utkarsh Small Finance Bank gets SEBI nod for IPO; offers the entirely fresh issue of Rs 500

Varanasi-based Utkarsh Small Finance Bank has received the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) nod for a Rs 500 crore IPO (Initial Public Offering.) The IPO comprises equity shares of a face value of Rs 10 each and is a completely fresh issue of shares. The entire proceeds will go to the company, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). The small finance bank may consider the issue of securities aggregating up to Rs 100 crore in a pre-IPO placement round. If such a placement is undertaken, the fresh issue size will be reduced. ICICI Securities and Kotak Mahindra Capital Company are the book-running lead managers of the IPO, while KFin Technologies is the registrar of the offer.

Earlier this year, in consultation with its lead managers, the lender slashed its IPO size by nearly 63%. Earlier, Utkarsh SFB planned to raise Rs 1,350 crore from IPO which included a fresh issue of Rs 750 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to Rs 600 crore. However, according to the revised draft, the IPO is now an entire fresh issue of Rs 500 crore. Of the total size, 75% of the IPO will be allocated to qualified institutional buyers, while 15% will be reserved for non-institutional investors and the remaining 10% of the size will be allocated to retail individual investors.

The lender which filed a fresh DRHP with the markets regulator in August, obtained its observation letter on 21 October, an update with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) showed. In Sebi’s parlance, obtaining its observation letter implies SEBI’s approval to launch the IPO.

The lender is promoted by Utkarsh CoreInvest Ltd, which commenced its operations as an NBFC in FY10. The company focuses on providing microfinance to the unserved and underserved segments, particularly in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, according to the CRISIL report stated in the DRHP. Between FY19-22, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank recorded the second fastest AUM growth. As on 31 March 2022, the small finance bank operations serviced 22 states through 686 banking outlets majorly located in rural and semi-urban areas primarily in the states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand.

Utkarsh Small Finance Bank’s gross loan portfolio grew from Rs 6,660.95 crore as of 31 March 2020 to Rs 10,630.72 crore as of 31 March 2022 and total deposits almost doubled from Rs 5,235.21 crore in the same period. The net profit of the small finance bank rose 443.35% to Rs 89.49 crore in the quarter that ended June 2022 as against Rs 16.47 crore during the previous quarter that ended June 2021. Total income rose 39.66% to Rs 655.33 crore in the quarter that ended June 2022 as against Rs 469.23 crore during the previous quarter that ended June 2021.

Utkarsh Small Finance Bank has received the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) nod for a Rs 500 crore IPO (Initial Public Offering.) The IPO comprises equity shares of a face value of Rs 10 each and is a completely fresh issue of shares. The entire proceeds will go to the company, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). The small finance bank may consider the issue of securities aggregating up to Rs 100 crore in a pre-IPO placement round. If such a placement is undertaken, the fresh issue size will be reduced. ICICI Securities and Kotak Mahindra Capital Company are the book-running lead managers of the IPO, while KFin Technologies is the registrar of the offer.

Earlier this year, in consultation with its lead managers, the lender slashed its IPO size by nearly 63%. Earlier, Utkarsh SFB planned to raise Rs 1,350 crore from IPO which included a fresh issue of Rs 750 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to Rs 600 crore. However, according to the revised draft, the IPO is now an entire fresh issue of Rs 500 crore. Of the total size, 75% of the IPO will be allocated to qualified institutional buyers, while 15% will be reserved for non-institutional investors and the remaining 10% of the size will be allocated to retail individual investors.

The Varanasi-based lender which filed a fresh DRHP with the markets regulator in August, obtained its observation letter on 21 October, an update with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) showed. In Sebi’s parlance, obtaining its observation letter implies SEBI’s approval to launch the IPO. The lender is promoted by Utkarsh CoreInvest Ltd, which commenced its operations as an NBFC in FY10. The company focuses on providing microfinance to the unserved and underserved segments, particularly in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, according to the CRISIL report stated in the DRHP. Between FY19-22,

Utkarsh Small Finance Bank recorded the second fastest AUM growth. As on 31 March 2022, the small finance bank operations serviced 22 states through 686 banking outlets majorly located in rural and semi-urban areas primarily in the states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand. Utkarsh Small Finance Bank’s gross loan portfolio grew from Rs 6,660.95 crore as of 31 March 2020 to Rs 10,630.72 crore as of 31 March 2022 and total deposits almost doubled from Rs 5,235.21 crore in the same period.

The net profit of the small finance bank rose 443.35% to Rs 89.49 crore in the quarter that ended June 2022 as against Rs 16.47 crore during the previous quarter that ended June 2021. Total income rose 39.66% to Rs 655.33 crore in the quarter that ended June 2022 as against Rs 469.23 crore during the previous quarter that ended June 2021.

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Defense-related stocks get an indigenization boost

Defense-related stocks get an indigenization boost

Shares of companies related to the defense sector are sailing northwards, with the government’s efforts to indigenize more defense equipment and boost their exports energizing investor sentiment. The ‘Fourth Positive Indigenisation List’ of 101 defense items was announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday, which also means that domestic players related to the multi-billion dollars worth defense segment, will have increased business opportunities.

An analysis of the stocks of companies that have businesses related to the defense space showed that most of them have gained since Wednesday. Mazagon Dock, Bharat Dynamics, Cochin Shipyard, Mishra Dhatu Nigam, Bharat Electronics, Bharat Forge, Astra Microwave Products, and Paras Defence and Space Technologies, are among the companies that have gained as much as 5 percent in two trading days, Wednesday and Thursday.

Analysts opined that broadly defense-related stocks have been outperforming and are expected to continue to deliver good returns for investors. From the end of trade on October 18 till the close on October 20, shares of Mazagon Dock rallied 5.39 percent and BEML jumped 4.43 percent on the BSE. Similarly, Bharat Dynamics climbed 3.32 percent, Cochin Shipyard gained 2.82 percent, Mishra Dhatu Nigam Ltd advanced 2.18 percent and Bharat Electronics went higher by 1.93 percent during the period.

The stock of Bharat Forge gained 1.44 percent, Astra Microwave Products spurted 0.84 percent, and Paras Defence and Space Technologies (0.26 percent) in the last two days. Meanwhile, a few stocks remained muted. Shares of Data Patterns (India) fell 3.86 percent and Hindustan Aeronautics dipped 1.18 percent during the period under review. On Friday morning, however, most of the stocks were trading on a mixed note, while Bharat Dynamics climbed 2.76 percent and Paras Defence gained 0.35 percent higher.

The benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 266.77 points or 0.45 percent higher at 59,469.67 in the morning trade on Friday. Defense stocks have been performing very well over the past three months. These lists improved the visibility of revenues for most defense-related companies. The government has also given a lot of orders to these companies to boost indigenization, Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, said.

The theme of defense can continue to perform well given the high revenue visibility over multiple years. However, some consolidation/ correction can be expected to post the sharp rise seen lately, he noted. Conglomerates Reliance, Tata, Adani, and L&T also have a presence in the defense segment.

“In the last year, defense sector-related stocks have outperformed and will continue to deliver good returns… companies like BEL, Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Dynamics, Mazagon Dock, and Cochin Shipyard are likely to get more orders from the defense ministry. Thereby, their earnings will also improve,” Gaurang Shah, Senior Vice President at Geojit Financial Services, said.

Ashwin Patil, the Senior Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said the dependence on developed nations is reducing day by day and is providing easy availability and margin support for the Indian defense sector. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has taken numerous steps to achieve ‘Aatmanirbharta’ in defense and Positive Indigenisation Lists is one of the landmark initiatives towards achieving that vision.

The ‘Fourth Positive Indigenisation List’ of 101 items was announced by the Prime Minister on October 19.”All the items included in the lists will be procured from indigenous sources as per provisions given in Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020. This list provides continuous impetus towards self-reliance in defense,” MoD said in a release on Wednesday. MoD had earlier promulgated ‘First, Second and Third Positive Indigenisation Lists’, comprising 310 items on August 21, 2020, May 31, 2021, and April 07, 2022, respectively.

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Tracxn Technologies IPO shares premium listing on BSE, NSE; stock jumps 5% from IPO price on debut

Tracxn Technologies IPO shares premium listing on BSE, NSE; stock jumps 5% from IPO price on debut

Tracxn Technologies IPO shares witnessed positive listing on the both BSE and NSE as the stock listed at a premium amid a weak market. Tracxn share price was up 5% on debut despite muted IPO response. The stock opened at Rs 83 on the BSE, against the issue price of Rs 80, and at Rs 84.50 on NSE. The company’s market capitalization on BSE stood at Rs 832.57 crore at the time of listing. Tracxn Technologies IPO had received bids for 4.27 crore shares against 2.12 crore shares on offer. The category for retail individual investors (RIIs) was subscribed 4.87 times and the portion for Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) received 1.66 times subscription.

“The company’s muted listing can be attributed to unexciting investor subscription levels, high valuation, and the OFS nature of the issue. The company is a leading global market intelligence provider for private company data and ranks among the top five players globally in terms of the number of companies profiled offering data of private market companies across sectors and geographies. Nevertheless, due to the rising interest rates globally & recessionary conditions in major markets like North America & Europe the Private Equity Markets, Venture Capital markets, Investment Banks, and Family offices are witnessing a significant cutback in terms of activities and traction; additionally, M&A activities have been subdued,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

“Thus we believe that the company will find it difficult to substantially grow its client base and top line in the coming years. Additionally, the company faces significant players from private players such as Crunchbase, CBInsights, PrivCo & Pitchbook, and free online and offline sources of information on companies & businesses. Post-listing, investors must wait for a few quarters before deciding whether to invest or not for the long term. Those who applied for listing gains can maintain a stop loss of Rs 79,” he added.

The Rs 309 crore received through the IPO will go to selling shareholders (promoters and investors) as the issue was entirely an offer for sale (OFS). Flipkart founders Sachin Bansal and Binny Bansal exited the company, while the shareholding of promoters Abhishek Goyal and Neha Singh dropped below 35 percent after the IPO.

The Bengaluru-headquartered company, launched in 2015 by Neha Singh and Abhishek Goyal, operates on a Software as a Service (SaaS) model and is among the leading market intelligence providers for private company data. They had their stints as venture capitalists at Sequoia and Accel Partners, respectively. The firm offers customers private company data for deal sourcing, identifying M&A targets, deal diligence, analysis, and tracking emerging themes across industries and markets, through its subscription-based platform.

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