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Jefferies sees this Indian stock as an attractive China+1 play, expects up to 44% upside

Jefferies sees this Indian stock as an attractive China+1 play, expects up to 44% upside

Anupam Rasayan shares are expected to surge as the company is seen as an attractive China+1 play by global brokerage and research firm Jefferies. “Anupam Rasayan is well-positioned to benefit from ‘China + 1’ with its diversified chemistry expertise, wide customer base and presence across multiple verticals,” said Jefferies as it initiated the coverage of the chemical manufacturer. Analysts added that the 16% year-to-date correction in Anupam Rasayan share price makes the stock’s valuations favourable now. Shares were trading at Rs 883 per share on Friday afternoon.

Target price discussions

In the base case scenario, Jefferies analysts predict Revenue CAGR 33% over FY21-24E helped by new contracts and a target price of Rs 1,040 per share. This implies around 17% upside from current levels. However, under more favourable conditions, the stock is expected to rally to Rs 1,270 per share target, around 44% higher than the current market price. For such a situation to occur, analysts expect revenue CAGR of 35% over FY21-24E and EBITDA margins to remain flat at 27% over FY22-24E. 

A bearish scenario, where revenue grows 29% over FY21-24E, could see the stock plummet to Rs 690 per share.

China+1 play

“China’s climate goals have impacted the smooth functioning of its chemical industry,” Jefferies said in the note. China plans to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To attain this the country has decided to decrease energy intensity by 13.5% by as early as 2025. Jefferies added that the CSM revenue CAGR of Indian players (35% over FY18-21) has outstripped their Chinese counterparts (16%), suggesting a gain in market share.

With the EU’s share in the sector declining over the past decade, it was China and India that were the key beneficiaries, With China now fizzling out, India is set to capitalise on it.

Anupam Rasayan an attractive play

The company offers competency across various products. “No single chemistry contributes more than 12% of ARIL’s revenues,” Jefferies said. The company provides CSM services to agro chem, personal care, pharma, pigments, and dyes verticals, which diversifies its revenue streams, the brokerage firm said. The diversification also reduces Anupam Rasayan’s vulnerability to any slowdown in the global agrochemical cycle.

Anupam Rasayan derives 35% of its revenues from its top 3 customers and 82% from the top 10. Management has suggested that the revenue contribution from the top ten customers will decline over the next three fiscal years. Further, analysts added that Anupam Rasayan has announced firm contract wins of Rs 8.2 billion and LOI of Rs 18 billion over FY22 YTD. Contracts are spread over 3-5 years and include around Rs 1 billion of revenues that have been converted from short-term to long-term.

Since listing a year ago the stock has gained nearly 80% so far. Among major risks around the stock is the small size of its core R&D team, which creates key-man risk.

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India imported 651.24 tonne gold in 2020-21 fiscal

India imported 651.24 tonne gold in 2020-21 fiscal

India imported 651.24 tonnes of gold in financial year 2020-21 as compared to 719.94 tonnes in the year-ago period, the government said on Wednesday.

In a written reply to the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Anupriya Patel said the imports stood at 982.71 tonnes in FY 2018-19.

Replying to another question, she informed that the import of toys, games, sports equipment from China is showing a declining trend.

“The imports of these products from China have reduced from USD 451.71 million in 2018-19 to USD 206.11 million in 2021 (from April 2021 to Jan 2022),” she added.

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LIC IPO: Government files updated draft papers with SEBI for Life Insurance Corporation’s 65,000 crore IPO

LIC IPO: Government files updated draft papers with SEBI for Life Insurance Corporation’s 65,000 crore IPO

The government has filed updated draft papers with market regulator Sebi for an initial public offer of LIC, incorporating December quarter financials of the insurance behemoth, an official said on Monday.

In the run-up to the mega IPO, on February 13, the government had filed the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the regulator giving details of financial results till September. The DRHP got Sebi approval early this month.

“Updated DRHP of LIC with December financials has been filed,” an official said, adding it was required to be done as per Sebi observations.

As per the updated financials, the Life Insurance Corporation reported a net profit of Rs 235 crore in the October-December quarter. The net profit in April-December, 2021, increased to Rs 1,671.57 crore from Rs 7.08 crore a year ago.

The government is expecting to garner over Rs 60,000 crore by selling about 31.6 crore or 5 per cent stake in the life insurance firm to meet the curtailed disinvestment target of Rs 78,000 crore in the current fiscal.

The IPO was originally planned to be launched in March, but the Russia-Ukraine crisis has derailed the plans as stock markets are highly volatile.

The government has time till May 12 to launch the IPO without filing fresh papers with the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

LIC’s embedded value, which is a measure of the consolidated shareholders’ value in an insurance company, was pegged at about Rs 5.4 lakh crore as of September 30, 2021, by international actuarial firm Milliman Advisors.

Although the DRHP does not disclose the market valuation of LIC, as per industry standards it would be about 3 times the embedded value.

At a 5 per cent stake dilution, the LIC IPO would be the biggest ever in the history of the Indian stock market and once listed its market valuation would be comparable to top companies like RIL and TCS.

So far, the amount mobilised from the IPO of Paytm in 2021 was the largest ever at Rs 18,300 crore, followed by Coal India (2010) at nearly Rs 15,500 crore and Reliance Power (2008) at Rs 11,700 crore. During the current financial year so far, Rs 12,423.67 crore has been garnered through offer for sale, employee OFS, strategic disinvestment and buyback. The target for the full fiscal is Rs 78,000 crore.

For the next fiscal, the disinvestment target has been set at Rs 65,000 crore.

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Sebi amends rules governing alternative investment funds

Sebi amends rules governing alternative investment funds

Capital markets regulator Sebi has amended the rules pertaining to investment aspects of certain category of alternative investment funds (AIFs). Under the rules, Category III AIFs can invest not more than 10 per cent of the investable funds in an investee company, directly or through investment in units of other AIFs, Sebi said in a notification on Wednesday.

Various types of funds such as hedge funds, PIPE Funds, etc. are registered as Category III AIFs. Further, the large value funds for accredited investors of Category III AIFs can invest up to 20 per cent of the investable funds in an investee company, directly or through investment in units of other AIFs.

This is provided that for investment in listed equity of an investee company, Category III AIFs may calculate the investment limit of 10 per cent of either the investable funds or the net asset value of the scheme, while large value funds for accredited investors of Category III AIFs may calculate the investment limit of 20 per cent of either the investable funds or the net asset value of the scheme.

The new norms called Sebi’s AIF Regulations, 2022 became effective from Wednesday. In November 2021, the regulator allowed category III AIFs, including large value funds for accredited investors of Category III AIFs, to calculate the concentration norm based on net asset value (NAV) of the fund for investment in listed equity of an investee company.

AIFs, in market parlance, refers to a privately pooled investment vehicle which collects funds from investors whether Indian or foreign for investing these funds in India. Broadly, the AIF rules govern venture capital funds, private equity funds, SME funds, hedge funds among others.

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Rupee likely to appreciate on weak dollar, optimistic sentiments; USDINR pair to trade in this range

Rupee likely to appreciate on weak dollar, optimistic sentiments; USDINR pair to trade in this range

The Indian Rupee is expected to appreciate on Tuesday amid weakness in the dollar, optimistic sentiments in the domestic markets. However, expectations of higher PPI data from the US is expected to provide some support to the dollar. “US$INR (March) is likely to move towards 76.30 for the day,” said ICICI Direct. Rupee inched slightly lower on Monday against the US Dollar. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 76.63 against the greenback. During the day, it swung between 76.52 and 76.69 before finally settling at 76.55, down 11 paise from previous close.

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.
“USDINR 29 March futures contract traded steady on Monday. On daily technical chart, we observed that a pair is trading above its trend line resistance but facing resistance at higher levels. Looking at the technical set-up, a pair could face steep resistance around 76.8500 levels. We have suggested sell on jump should be preferred Strategy in the pair around 76.85-77.10. We suggest to stay away in today’s session ahead of the FOMC meeting.”

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
“Rupee traded in a narrow range for the third successive session but losses for the currency were limited as uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine recedes. Also, global crude oil prices retraced from higher levels and that too supported the rupee. In the next couple of sessions, volatility could drop ahead of the important FOMC policy statement that is scheduled to release tomorrow midnight. Hawkish commentary from the Fed Chairman is likely to extend gains for the dollar. Today, focus will be on the employment number that will be released from the UK and weak number could keep the currency weighed down against the US dollar. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade with a positive bias and quote in the range of 76.40 and 77.20.”

Heena Naik, Research Analyst – Currency, Angel One Ltd.
“In Monday’s session, the Indian Rupee made a weak opening at 76.62 levels from its previous closing levels of 76.59 levels. Throughout the day it traded in a tight range between 76.52 to 76.69 levels. In the upcoming session, the performance of USDINR is going to be lull again. Crude prices have cooled off quite a bit from the highs, but still, remain uncomfortably high as trade negotiations between the EU, US and Iran go on-off giving a ray of hope to the markets considering the Russian oil ban. The RBI will probably intervene intermittently to keep speculation and volatility in check, but it is unlikely to be too averse to the rupee’s decline in the face of an overall selloff in EM currencies.”

Tapish Pandey, Research Analyst, SMC Global Securities Ltd.
“The Indian rupee likely to trade mixed note as Oil extended losses following another volatile session after a cease-fire in Ukraine was discussed, while there were also concerns about crude demand in China due to a resurgence of Covid-19 there. Dollar rupee is facing resistance of its record high near 77.33 future levels sustain above which may head higher towards 78 marks while on flip side support is placed near 76.35 followed by 76.00 levels. Considering current trading setup and global sentiments buying to dips near support levels will be better strategy while keeping stop loss below 76.00 near month levels.”

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Author EqwiresPosted on March 15, 2022March 15, 2022Categories Accurate stock tips provider in India, Best advisory service provider for beginners, Best Bank Nifty future calls, Best Bank Nifty options tips provider, Best Bank Nifty trading tips provider, Best equity advisory services in India, Best Ethical investment advisor in india, best financial advisor websites in India, Best Index future services, Best index options services, Best intraday advisor in India, Best intraday call provider, Best Intraday jackpot calls, Best Intraday research company, Best intraday tips for tomorrow, Best intraday tips provider in India, Best Intraday tips site, Best Intraday tips website in India, Best investment Advisor in India, Best jackpot tips provider, Best Nifty future calls, Best Nifty options tips provider, Best Nifty trading tips provider, Best option trading Telegram channel, Best options tips provider in India, Best options trading tips provider in India, Best paid stock recommendation sites India, Best performing PMS in India, Best PMS in India, Best Portfolio Management services in India, Best SEBI registered advisory company, Best SEBI registered Investment advisor, BEST SEBI REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR, Best SEBI registered research analyst, Best SEBI registered stock tips provider, Best SEBI registered Telegram Channel, Best Share market advisor in India, Best share market advisory company in India, Best share market consultants in India, Best Share market tips, Best share market tips provider in India, Best Share tips provider in India, Best Stock advisor, Best stock advisor websites in India, Best stock advisory service in India, Best stock market advisory services in India, Best stock market telegram channel, Best stock market tips provider service, Best stock recommendation service in India, Best stock tips provider in India, Best stock tips provider in Telegram, Best Telegram channel for stock market tips in India, Business, Commodity Market, Currency, Equity Market, Equity research analyst, Eqwires - 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