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Oil stocks to benefit from re-opening trade on Wall Street says Chris Wood; Shell, Exxon, BP in focus

Jefferies’ global market strategist Chris Wood has picked oil stocks as his most favoured trade for the near term as cyclical stocks continue rallying on Wall Street. “In the short term, if GREED & fear had to favour one area of the cyclical trade the most it would be oil stocks,” the Global Head (equity strategy) said in his weekly newsletter. So far this year, the S&P Energy index has zoomed 41%, outperforming the S&P 500 which has managed to jump 14%. Oil prices have been inching higher as the demand outlook for crude oil improves with vaccines being rolled out across the globe.

Oil stocks well placed for near term

Chris Wood said that oil is the commodity most geared to the re-opening trade as the vaccine rollout proceeds. Brent Crude oil prices breached the $70 mark on Wednesday morning as OPEC and its allies decided to roll back curbs as demand outlook improved with encouraging macro data from economies such as the United States. “A further rise in the oil price to say, $80 per barrel or higher is also likely to intensify the inflation scare which has already commenced,” Chris Wood added.

Stick to cyclical commodity trade

Commodities have been buzzing across global markets, recovering from their 2020 lows as the world inches closed to the old normal. Steel prices have gone up, helping a significant rally in steel stocks. “The view here remains firmly that investors should stick with the pro-cyclical commodity trade, particularly energy,” Chris Wood said.

Although China has signalled at controlling the surging commodity prices, Chris Wood remains adamant. “This is despite Beijing’s recent understandable efforts to talk down commodity prices, and despite concerns that a successful revival of the Iran 2015 nuclear deal will cause increased supply on the world oil market. Indeed both concerns should be used as opportunities to add to positions in the likes of copper stocks and oil stocks,” he added.

Tracking performance of Oil stock

-Shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation have zoomed 46% this year
-Despite some volatility along the way, Royal Dutch Shell still trades 10% higher year-to-date
-Chevron Corporation is up 26% so far in 2021
-BP Plc on NYSE has jumped 30% since the year began
-United States Oil Fund, a listed ETF tracking the WTI Crude oil is up 43% in 2021
-Occidental Petroleum Corporation has clocked in 63% returns year-to-date

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Gold Price Today, 1 June 2021: Gold nears Rs 50,000 on positive global cues; check support, resistance levels

Gold Price Today, Gold Price Outlook, Gold Price Forecast: Gold and silver prices were trading higher in India on Tuesday, on the back of positive international trends, where gold surged to a near five-month high of $1,914.26 on a weaker US dollar and inflation concerns. On Multi Commodity Exchange, gold August futures were trading Rs 134 or 0.23 per cent up at Rs 49,484 per 10 gram, as against the previous close of Rs 49,349. Silver July futures were ruling at Rs 72,668 per kg, up Rs 800 or one per cent on MCX. Silver futures ended at Rs 71,898 pe kg in the previous session. Globally, spot gold was up 0.2 per cent at $1,911.45 per ounce. The dollar index was down 0.26% against its rivals at 89.757. Among other precious metals, silver gained 0.6 per cent to $28.22 per ounce while platinum climbed 0.5 per cent to $1,192.22, according to Reuters.

The subdued dollar is supporting the gold prices. The dollar remains on the back foot as hopes of further stimulus and steady vaccinations in the West, improving the demand for gold. The only uncertainty is the Federal Reserve’s next move amid increasing inflation. Also, this week’s US NFP data if the headline US jobs figures print upbeat data, then traders may have an additional reason to believe that Fed may hint at rate hikes sooner than expected, in turn underpinning the US dollar and dragging gold prices. In MCX Gold, prices have opened with a positive gap today. Prices need to trade above 49550 levels consistently to extend the gains towards 49668/49750 levels. Weakness below 49400 will trigger a dip towards 49245. A daily close below this level will trigger further downside towards 48900 levels in the counter during the coming sessions.

Bhavik Patel, Senior Technical Research Analyst, Tradebulls Securities

Gold has risen above $1900 as the Federal Reserve is not ready to tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy even as inflation pressures continue to rise. Gold market is benefiting as real interest rates remain in historically low negative territory. A glance at US Treasury yields makes it clear that US Fed is in no hurry to change its stance. Gold’s next move will come this Friday when the U.S. Labor Department releases its nonfarm payrolls report for May. A disappointing nonfarm payroll could push gold prices further upside while better than expected numbers could see US dollar and yields pivot higher. In MCX, Gold has just entered the overbought zone around 69.58 and was underperforming compared to COMEX due to strong Indian rupee. Next resistance comes around 49,800 which was the level last seen in Jan 2021. Major support comes at 48,200 and we would advocate buy on dips and any long position at current juncture should be held with a strict stoploss of 48,800 where the 200 day moving average is.

NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities, Ventura Securities

We expect the MCX Gold Aug prices to trade positive for intraday. The RSI indicator on the daily chart is suggesting the strength in momentum on the upside. Also, prices have managed to hold above the key averages from the last few trading sessions. We expect MCX GOLD Aug prices to reach the 50,000 level in the coming sessions. On the downside, the 48,800 level will be the key immediate support for the prices. On the Comex front, Gold prices are holding above the key level of $1900/ounce. As long as prices are above this level, they are likely to head towards $2000 level in coming sessions.

Ravindra Rao,CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities

COMEX gold trades marginally higher by 0.35% near $1912/oz after a 0.4% gain on Friday. Gold continues to hold above $1900/oz as Fed and other central banks emphasize on continuing with loose monetary policy. However, ETF outflows and weaker demand in India amid continuing virus related restrictions might cap the gains. Gold has continued to hold above $1900/oz however any sustained rise may be challenged by pause in US dollar index fall.

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If Nifty holds above 15,500, it may hit 15,800; Bank Nifty looks positive; RIL, SBI stocks in focus this week

Nifty closed at 15,436 with a gain of 260 points on a weekly basis. On the weekly chart the index has formed a long bullish candle forming higher High-low compared to previous week and has closed above previous week’s high indicating positive bias. The index is moving in a Higher Top and Higher Bottom formation on the weekly chart indicating positive bias. The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above 15500 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 15650-15800 levels. However if the index breaks below 15300 level it would witness profit booking which would take the index towards 15200-15100.

Nifty is trading above 20 and 50 day SMA’s which are important short term moving averages, indicating positive bias in the short term. Nifty continues to remain in an uptrend in the medium term, so buying on dips continues to be our preferred strategy. For the week, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 15800-15300 with a positive bias.

The weekly strength indicator RSI and momentum oscillator Stochastic have both turned positive and are above their respective reference lines indicating positive bias.

Nifty derivative outlook
In May series Nifty witnessed a rollover of 77.28% compared to 66.28%, adding 2.35Lac shares with price gains of 2.97% and started June series with OI of 104.73Lac shares compared to 102.38Lac shares in May expiry. Nifty futures on Friday closed at 15463.85 on a positive note with price gains of 0.50% (compared to previous day) and 5.33% increase in open interest adding 5.26Lac shares indicating Long Build Up. The sentiment indicator PC Ratio is currently trading at 1.32 although well above the median line but in a comfortable zone indicating a positive bias in the market. In Nifty the high OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry scheduled 03rd June is at 15,500(27.03L), 15,600(23.29L) & 16,000(40.62L), with 15,500 & 15,600 acting as a resistance wherein there has been writing of 12.61Lac shares & 11.43 Lac shares respectively. The high OI on the PUT side is at 15,300(25.64L) -15,000(23.64L) & 14,700(23.73L) strike, with 15,400 acting as a strong pivotal level as there has been of writing of 16.63Lac shares. So as per the options data the important range indicated is 15,400 to 15,600 and any sustained move above or below this range will indicate the direction of market trend.

Bank Nifty outlook
Bank Nifty started the week on a flat note and buying momentum for most part of the week led it to close on a positive note. Bank Nifty closed at 35141 with a gain of 535 points on a weekly basis.

On the weekly chart the index has formed a small Bullish candle forming higher High-low compared to previous week and has closed above previous week’s high indicating positive bias. The index is moving in a Higher Top and Higher Bottom formation on the daily chart indicating sustained up trend on long term charts. The chart pattern suggests that if Bank Nifty crosses and sustains above 35500 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 36500-36800 levels. However if index breaks below 34500 level it would witness selling which would take the index towards 34000-33000. Bank Nifty is trading above 20, 50 and 100 day SMA’s which is important short term moving average, indicating positive bias in the short term. Bank Nifty continues to remain in an uptrend in the medium term, so buying on dips continues to be our preferred strategy. For the week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the range of 36800-34500 with a positive bias.

The weekly strength indicator RSI and momentum oscillator Stochastic have both turned positive and are above their respective reference lines indicating positive bias.

Bank Nifty derivative outlook
Bank Nifty witnessed a rollover of 80.76% compared to 64.60%, adding 3.74Lac shares with price gains of 4.09% and started June series with OI of 17.70Lac shares compared to 13.97Lac shares in May expiry. Bank Nifty futures on Friday closed at 35321.80 on a positive note with marginal price gains of 0.04% (compared to previous day) and 1.62% increase in open interest adding 0.28Lac shares indicating Long Build Up. In Bank Nifty the high OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry scheduled 03rd June is at 35,500(9.37L), 36,000(9.11L) & 37,000(8.24L), with 36,000 acting as a strong resistance wherein there has been writing of 4.13Lac shares. The high OI on the PUT side is at 35, 000(8.92L), 34,500(7.52L) & 34,000(6.29L) strikes, with 35,000 & 34,500 acting as a strong support level as there has been of writing of 4.13Lac & 2.74Lac shares respectively.

The tentative range for the current week is likely to be between 34,000 to 36,000. India Vix is currently at 17.40 % and has been in downward trajectory after making a recent high of 21.32% suggesting confidence and stability in current market trend and further descend from these levels will further augment for more uptrend in market.

Sectors and stocks in focus this week
We expect Banking, Financial, IT, Pharma, FMCG, Oil & Gas, and Consumer Durable sectors to do well in the near term. One can focus on stocks like State Bank of India (SBI), Punjab National Bank (PNB), Cipla, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Just Dial, Wipro, Piramal Enterprises Ltd (PEL), Minda Industries, Colgate-Palmolive (India), REC Ltd, for the near-term bullish trend.

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Petrol and diesel price today 28 May 2021: Rates unchanged today; check the price in Delhi, Mumbai here

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Hyderabad: Prices of Petrol and Diesel were kept unchanged on Friday across major cities. Petrol in Delhi today costs Rs 93.68 per litre, while diesel in the capital city costs Rs 84.61 litre today. So far this month, rates have been hiked 14 times. Petrol price in Delhi has been increased by Rs 3.28 in May, while diesel price has surged Rs 3.88 per lire. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise the fuel prices on a daily basis in line with benchmark international price and foreign exchange rates.

Mumbai’s petrol cost is the highest across metro cities at Rs 99.94 per litre. Diesel in the country’s financial capital costs Rs 91.87 per litre. Petrol rates in Mumbai are inching closer to the Rs 100 mark. Sri Ganganagar district of Rajasthan had the costliest petrol and diesel in the country at Rs 104.67 per litre and Rs 97.49 a litre, respectively. The divergence in prices between Delhi and Mumbai is owing to different prices in different cities. Petrol and Diesel prices are fixed on the basis of freight charges, local taxes, and VAT.

Petrol, diesel prices in Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, UP, Punjab, Haryana, Pune
-Chennai: Petrol prices – Rs 95.28 per litre; Diesel prices – Rs 89.39 per litre

-Kolkata: Petrol prices – Rs 93.72 per litre; Diesel prices – Rs 87.46 per litre

-Pune: Petrol prices – Rs 99.56 per litre; Diesel prices – Rs 90.10 per litre

-Bengaluru: Petrol prices – Rs 96.80 per litre; Diesel prices – Rs 89.70 per litre

-Hyderabad: Petrol prices – Rs 97.36 per litre; Diesel prices – Rs 92.24 per litre

-Noida (UP): Petrol prices – 91.29 per litre; Diesel prices – Rs 85.08 per litre

-Mohali (Punjab): Petrol prices – Rs 95.86 per litre; Diesel prices – 87.52 per litre

-Chandigarh: Petrol prices 90.11 per litre; Diesel prices – Rs 84.27 per litre

-Gurugram (Haryana): Petrol prices – Rs 91.54 per litre; Diesel prices – Rs 85.19 per litre

Crude Oil price

Crude oil prices moved higher on Friday morning as expectations of a stronger rebound in global fuel demand grew stronger. US WTI crude futures for July traded at $67.17 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were at $69.62 per barrel, according to Reuters.

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