For June 13, 2024, the outlook for the Indian share market is cautiously optimistic. Key indicators and expert analysis suggest a mix of potential growth and volatility.
Market Trends and Key Indicators
- Nifty 50 Performance:
- Recent volatility saw the Nifty dropping significantly but then rebounding strongly. It ended the previous week on a positive note, with technical indicators showing a dragonfly doji pattern on the weekly chart, which often signals the end of a correction phase.
- The index is holding above key moving averages (9, 20, and 50 DMA), and the daily RSI remains steady around 59, indicating a stable momentum with a slight positive bias. Support levels are at 22,500 and 22,400, while resistance is expected around 23,620 and 23,800.
- Sectoral Performance:
- IT stocks led the gains, rising by 8.60%, while Public Sector Enterprises (PSE) saw a decline of 2.04%.
Economic and Regulatory Factors
- Growth Projections:
- India’s GDP growth is projected to moderate to 6.8% in fiscal 2025 from the higher growth rates seen in previous years. This moderation is partly due to the continued transmission of rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India and regulatory measures affecting credit growth.
- Despite the moderation, India is expected to retain its position as the fastest-growing large economy, driven by continued disinflation, normal monsoon predictions, and a gradual pickup in private-sector capital expenditures .
- Market Sentiment:
- Market sentiment is supported by cooling volatility, as indicated by a significant drop in the India VIX from 31.71 to 16.88. This suggests reduced fear and uncertainty among investors.
Technical Analysis
- The Nifty index’s formation of a dragonfly doji and its positioning above key moving averages suggest that while short-term corrections are possible, the overall trend remains bullish. Traders should watch the support and resistance levels closely and be prepared for potential sideways movement with a positive bias.
Conclusion
Overall, the Indian share market on June 13, 2024, is expected to navigate a mix of stabilizing technical indicators and moderating economic growth. Investors should stay informed about sector-specific movements and broader economic trends to make well-informed trading decisions.
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