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Equity markets at a crucial juncture; charts hint at positive support for these stocks in coming weeks

Equity markets at a crucial juncture; charts hint at positive support for these stocks in coming weeks

After rallying for five consecutive sessions, the Nifty corrected on Wednesday from a high of 10848. The Nifty failed to test the 200-day SMA, which is currently at 10885. Zooming into the 15 minute intra charts, we can see that the Nifty has closed just above the intraday support of 10689. A close below this level could trigger a bigger correction that could see the Nifty moving down towards the next major support at 10560-10520 where we have the 200-day EMA.

On the other hand, if the Nifty does find support at the 10689 levels, then a bounce back is possible that could take the Nifty once again towards the 200-day SMA. The below picks are for the next 15-26 trading sessions.

After correcting sharply from a high of 1367 touched in February 2020, Shriram Transport Finance found support around the 440 levels a few months back. The stock had also previously found support around these levels many years back, thereby making it a strong support on the long term charts. The stock has since then rebounded and gradually moved higher, making higher tops and higher bottoms in the process.

This week, the stock has broken out of the 690-714 narrow trading range on the back of healthy volumes. This augurs well for the current uptrend to continue.

Technical indicators are giving positive signals as the stock trades above the 13-day and 50-day SMA. Daily and weekly momentum readings are in rising mode and not overbought.

We recommend a Buy between 740 and 760 with a SL at 700 and Target of 880 for 2-5 weeks. CMP is Rs. 757.

Buy United Spirits

United Spirits has formed a double bottom pattern on the daily charts around the 585 levels. The stock has since then been gradually moving higher in the last few sessions, which is encouraging.

Today, the stock broke out of the 590-605 range on the back of huge volumes, which augurs well for the uptrend to continue.

Technical indicators are giving positive signals as the stock trades above the 13-day SMA and the 14-day RSI is in rising mode and not overbought. The Relative Strength Comparative indicator too has started turning up, indicating that the stock is outperforming the Nifty.

We recommend a Buy between 605 and 621 with a SL at 590 and Target of 670 for 2-5 weeks. CMP is Rs 620.5.

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TCS share price hits all-time high after JP Morgan Funds buys stake; should you buy too now?

TCS share price hits all-time high after JP Morgan Funds buys stake; should you buy too now?

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) share price hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 2,301.85 apiece on BSE, a day after JP Morgan Funds bought TCS shares worth nearly Rs 247 crore through an open market transaction. TCS shares opened at Rs 2,269 and rose 1.7 per cent to touch a new 52-week high today, taking the market capitalisation to Rs 8,57,176 crore. TCS share price has rallied 10 per cent in just five trading sessions. Despite near-term uncertainties due to COVID-19 and the US elections, research and brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services continue to like TCS along with Infosys and HCL Tech among Tier I. “This is attributable to their robust business models, high return ratios, strong management teams, and reasonable valuations,” the brokerage firm said.

IT bellwether is scheduled to announce its first-quarter (April-June) earnings of the financial year 2020-21 (Q1FY21) on Thursday. “…a meeting of the Board of Directors of TCS Limited is scheduled to be held on Thursday, July 9, 2020, inter alia to approve and take on record the audited financial results of the company under Indian Accounting Standards (Ind AS) for the quarter ending June 30, 2020,” TCS said in a regulatory filing.

It added that the board will also consider a declaration of interim dividend to equity shareholders.”We believe low travel costs, absence of overheads (owing to Working from Home) would also be a margin buffer. Commentary on back ended recovery in revenue growth remains key,” Centrum Institutional Research said. It further added saying that falling global interest rates and lower risk premium is leading to some P/E multiple expansion in the sector despite no major change in the business outlook. “TCS stock is currently above our target price and we would wait for better entry points,” it said.

Analysts at IDBI Capital said that key things to watch out for include update on client interactions on FY21 outlook especially in key verticals – BFSI, retail and manufacturing; commentary on pricing, deal closures, deal pipelines attrition; client feedback on TCS structural change in work-from-home strategy; growth in digital services and outlook amid the slowdown; and outlook on capital allocation.

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Warren Buffett might be treading with caution, but Dominion Energy bet shows he’s willing to pounce

Warren Buffett might be treading with caution, but Dominion Energy bet shows he’s willing to pounce

Berkshire is digging deeper into a business that’s been facing increasing scrutiny amid the push for energy companies to shift away from fossil fuels.

Warren Buffett finally found his next crisis-era deal. His Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which has stayed relatively quiet during the tumult of the coronavirus pandemic, broke its silence at the end of a holiday weekend with its biggest acquisition in more than four years. The agreement for Dominion Energy Inc.’s natural gas pipeline and storage assets signaled to the market that Buffett is willing to pounce despite his cautious tone in May about the pandemic, according to David Kass, a professor of finance at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.

“He’s willing to make investments now, of a fairly sizable amount,” Kass said. “It’s very positive that he’s sending a signal for the right deal at the right price, $10 billion or more, ‘We’re ready to go, we’re ready to invest.’”

Buffett, who has crafted Berkshire into a conglomerate valued at $434 billion, built his reputation as an investor able to swoop in during volatile markets to strike unique and complicated deals in past crises. After being stymied on the acquisition front during the recent bull market for stocks, Buffett still wasn’t striking any deals during the initial stages of the pandemic and even dumped his stakes in the major U.S. airlines.

His inability to make a major acquisition recently has drawn scrutiny from his critics who have argued that Buffett has lost his ability to pull off the game-changing transactions that helped vault Berkshire into the ranks of the most valuable U.S. public companies. Now, the deal to buy substantially all of Dominion Energy’s natural gas transmission and storage assets for $4 billion, along with the assumption of $5.7 billion in debt, shows that Buffett is willing to put his money to work, Kass said.

“We are very proud to be adding such a great portfolio of natural gas assets to our already strong energy business,” Buffett, who is chief executive officer and chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway, said in a statement Sunday.

Buffett has considered its energy business one of the “lead dogs” of Berkshire’s non-insurance operations alongside its railroad. Berkshire’s purchase expands its hold in the sector, adding more infrastructure to handle natural gas to its already sprawling energy operations across states such as Nevada and Iowa. Berkshire also struck the deal at a low point in the market. Natural gas futures in the U.S. dropped last month to their lowest point in 25 years and have recovered just slightly since then.

“This looks like confirmation that commodities like energy are undervalued,” Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, which owns Berkshire shares, said in an emailed comment. “At the bottom, assets move from weak hands to strong hands.”

Berkshire is digging deeper into a business that’s been facing increasing scrutiny amid the push for energy companies to shift away from fossil fuels. In its own statement on Sunday, Dominion Energy cited its target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

The deal also highlights the work of one of Buffett’s key deputies, Greg Abel, who led the energy business for years and is now chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Energy alongside his role as Berkshire’s vice chairman for all non-insurance businesses. Abel has gained a reputation as a key dealmaker for Berkshire with the 2013 purchase of NV Energy and even the battle to buy Oncor Electric Delivery Co., which didn’t ultimately come together. Abel is viewed as a potential successor to Buffett, 89.

The Dominion deal is set to be Berkshire’s largest acquisition ranked by enterprise value since its purchase of Precision Castparts Corp. in 2016. Still, Buffett ended the first quarter with a record $137 billion on hand and has been hankering for an “elephant-sized acquisition” to put a chunk of his cash pile to work. The Dominion agreement’s total enterprise value would account for just about 7% of that total.

Eqwires Research Analyst

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Deepak Parekh wonders why RBI should answer to court on loan moratorium calls it unfortunate

Deepak Parekh wonders why RBI should answer to court on loan moratorium calls it unfortunate

Chairman of India’s largest mortgage lender HDFC Ltd, Deepak Parekh in his annual letter to shareholders has questioned the Supreme Court’s decision to bring the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to clarify on issues relating to the loan moratorium. Deepak Parekh said that the incident was “indeed unfortunate” while he lauded the central bank for shouldering a huge burden to maintain financial stability while a pandemic wreaked havoc across the country. The veteran banker’s comments come weeks after the apex court asked the Reserve Bank and the ministry of finance whether interest would be charged on the interest of the deferred loan repayment during the moratorium.

“The saga of the highest court of law questioning the RBI on the moratorium was indeed unfortunate. Why should a central bank have to be answerable to a court on basic principles which the financial sector operates on?” wrote Deepak Parekh in the annual letter. The Padma Bhushan awardee questioned as to why should the country’s central bank be answerable to a court on the basic principles on which the financial sector operates. “Interest payments on borrowings and loans are contractual obligations and when no laws are being violated then all efforts at this juncture must be channelled towards economic recovery rather than getting into legal wrangles,” Parekh went on to add.

HDFC with assets under management worth Rs 5.17 lakh crore at the end of the previous quarter is by far India’s largest mortgage lender. Deepak Parekh, in his letter, also said that the woes of India’s economy predate the coronavirus pandemic. “Given the immense constraints on fiscal finances, solutions have to be found which do not impinge on the limited resources of the government,” he added.

The Supreme Court had in May this year asked for the Reserve Bank of India to submit its response to a plea filed in the apex court requesting interest waiver during the moratorium period. However, in its hearing last month the Supreme Court did rule out a complete interest waiver, the court had observed that once the moratorium is fixed then it should serve the desired purposes and the government should consider interfering in the matter as it cannot leave everything to banks.

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Asian stocks follow Wall Street higher on vaccine hopes

Asian stocks follow Wall Street higher on vaccine hopes

Asian stock markets followed Wall Street higher Thursday as hopes for development of a coronavirus vaccine competed with concern about rising US infections. Benchmarks in Shanghai, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Australia all advanced.

Investors were encouraged after Pfizer and BioNtech announced preliminary data from a vaccine test, one of a series being carried out by global developers. At the same time, the populous American states of California and Texas reported daily record highs in new cases.

”Vaccine hopes, while welcome, fall short of guaranteeing a V-shaped recovery,” said Mizuho Bank in a report. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.6 per cent to 3,073.98 and the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo added 0.2 per cent to 22,159.722. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong, reopening after a holiday, gained 1.6 per cent to 24,801.28.

In South Korea, the Kospi advanced 0.8 per cent to 2,124.39 while Australia’s S&P-ASX 200 added 1.6 per cent to 6,030.30. India’s Sensex opened up 0.9 per cent while New Zealand, Singapore and Jakarta also rose.

On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 index rose 0.5 per cent on Wednesday to 3,115.86, boosted by gains for technology companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3 per cent to 25,734.97. The Nasdaq composite, which is heavily weighted with technology companies, climbed 1 per cent to a record 10,154.63.

Stock markets around the world roared back last quarter on hopes economies are pulling out of their deepest slump since the 1930s. Analysts warn, however, that prices might be rising too far and too fast to be supported by economic activity when infections are rising in the United States, Brazil and some other countries.

In the United States, a report on manufacturing showed activity returned to growth in June, a much better reading than the contraction economists expected. Earlier, a separate report suggested private employers hired more workers than they cut in June.

”It is still a guessing game as to how the Covid-19 lingering impact will sustain,” said Jingyi Pan of IG in a report.

In China, two surveys this week showed manufacturing improved in June, adding to signs of a gradual recovery. A similar survey for the 19-country eurozone showed manufacturing almost growing again after widespread shutdowns.

Analysts said that while the data pointed in the right direction, it shows that an economic recovery from the pandemic will be slow. In energy markets, benchmark US crude gained 1 cent to USD 39.83 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 55 cents to settle at USD 39.82 on Wednesday.

Brent crude, the international price standard, gained 4 cents to USD 42.07 per barrel in London. The contract rose 76 cents the previous session to USD 42.03 a barrel. The dollar declined to 107.44 from Wednesday’s 107.49 yen. The euro rose to USD 1.1264 from USD 1.1244.

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