Equity benchmark Sensex climbed up nearly 1000 points or 1.7% to close at 60841 and Nifty advance 301 points to close at 18105 against the previous week’s close. On YTD bases, the BSE barometer closed the year 2022 with a 4.40% gain or 2,587 points while the Nifty ended the year higher by 4.30% or 751 points. Sensex touched its all-time high of 63,583 points on 1 December, after hitting its 52-week low of 50,921 points on 17 June. Sensex jumped 10,502 points or 22% last year. Sensex gained for seven consecutive years or 34723 points or 133% over the last seven years. Impressive quarterly results, strong domestic fund buying interest and higher govern spending (PLI scheme, higher spending in infra project) lifted the Indian market. GST collection run rate continues for the month of Dec as well with 1.5 lakh cr just above 2.5 percent above November
The year 2022 was extremely volatile not only for the domestic market but also across the global markets. Russia – Ukraine war, the energy crisis, the spiked in global inflation, the hike in interest rates across the world, US Fed’s hawkish stance, and a spike in China covid cases dampened the market sentiment. On the domestic front, RBI also kept an aggressive stance on its rate hike. Further, FIIs selling posted limited upside to the Indian bourses which resulted in a mere 4% gain in Sensex. However, Indian markets were much better than global markets. The US market fell to a decade low with S&P 500 losing over 20%, while European stocks posted their worst annual performance since 2018 as the Stoxx Europe index yearly losses by 13%. Asian markets like South Korea, Taiwan, and China Index slipped 20% each.
This week will be important in the market as the FOMC Minutes meeting will be announced on Thursday along with domestic GDP data and monthly auto sales data. When 2022 began, investors were looking forward to a rally similar to the past 2 years when the bulls were in charge. However, one month into 2022 and bears took over as markets reeled over uncertainties brought in by the Russia – Ukraine war. Global markets plunged into doldrums and struggled to recoup the losses for the most part of the year amid persistent inflation pressures, monetary policy tightening, global central bankers’ worries about a slowdown in growth, and fear of recession — all of it owing to the geopolitical crisis caused by the war along with surged in China covid cases.
Even though stock markets in India fell prey to such an uncertain global environment, both Sensex and Nifty still emerged as winners, performing better than any other indices globally. Domestic markets advance over 4% higher in CY2022 while US S&P 500 fell 20% to a 14-year low since 2008 and Bonds lost 16% of value, the biggest decline since at least 1990.
The year 2023 will be important for the domestic market with a series of events lined up to keep the market on its toes. 2023 will be a year when nine states and possibly the Union Territory of J&K will witness Assembly elections. These polls assume more importance because the Lok Sabha elections will be held in 2024. Union Budget will be announced on 1st Feb and will hold importance ahead of the Assembly election and next year’s Lok Sabha election. The Budget is likely to be more focused on the food and fertilizer sectors.
G-20 and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) meeting with leadership by Prime Minister Modi will be hosted on Indian grounds. India is likely to strengthen its leadership globally. From the economic point of view, the US Fed rate decision, global inflation, Fed commentary, and RBI policy will be in focus this year. Progress from China’s covid and the Russia-Ukraine war, global currency, and oil prices will be focused on next year. Domestic sentiment remains bullish due to favorable government policy, cool-down inflation data, and local funds & strong retail participation to support the market.
Nifty Outlook
Nifty has formed a Bullish candle or an Inside Bar on the weekly frame but continues to form lower highs from the last four weeks. Now, it has to continue to hold above 18081 zones, for an up move towards 18250 and 18350 levels whereas supports are placed at 18018 and 17950 levels.
Stocks to buy
Jindal Steel
CMP: Rs 580 | SL: Rs 568 | Target: Rs 615
Jindal steel has given a range breakout on the daily chart and managed to close above the same. Buying is visible across Metals space and small follow up can take it towards new high territories. Stock is making higher highs- higher lows formation from four trading sessions and supports are gradually shifting higher. Considering the current chart structure, we advise traders to buy the stock for an up move towards 615 with a stop loss of 568.
Titan
CMP: Rs 2597 | SL: Rs 2530 | Target: Rs 2720
Titan has surpassed the falling supply trend line on the daily scale and it has formed a bullish candle which indicates a positive price setup. It is forming a higher high since the last 3 sessions and it has given a close above the 20 DEMA indicating strength. RSI on the daily scale is reversing from the oversold territory and showing signs of reversal. Considering the current chart structure, we advise traders to buy the stock for an up move towards 2720 with a stop loss of 2560.
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