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Bank Nifty F&O expiry day change may benefit brokers, NSE, govt, but not traders as much; may reduce volatility.

Bank Nifty F&O expiry day change may benefit brokers, NSE, govt, but not traders as much; may reduce volatility.

Except for Monday, NSE will now have an F&O expiry on every day from next week. There is the Nifty Financial expiry on Tuesday, Nifty Midcap Select on Wednesday, Nifty 50 on Thursday and now Bank Nifty on Friday.

NSE’s move of shifting Bank Nifty’s Futures and Options (F&O) expiry from Thursday to Friday has surprised traders. The changes will be effective from the trade date of Friday, July 7, 2023; accordingly, all existing contracts with Thursday expiry will be revised to Friday by the end of the day on July 6, 2023. The first Friday expiry will be on July 14, 2023, according to NSE. With this change, NSE will now have an F&O expiry on every day of the week except Monday, with effect from the week starting July 9. There is the Nifty Financial expiry on Tuesday, Nifty Midcap Select on Wednesday, Nifty 50 on Thursday and now Bank Nifty on Friday.

Earlier last month, BSE also changed the expiry day of Sensex and Bankex monthly, weekly and long-dated futures and options contracts to Fridays from Thursdays. Analysts believe that NSE has taken this decision to counter BSE while noting that changing the expiry day alone won’t increase the attractiveness of Bank Nifty as transaction charges will also play a significant role. Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty take cues from each other, especially during expiry days, resulting in heightened volatility, the move may help reduce volatility.

NSE shifted expiry day to counter BSE
“The NSE’s decision to shift the expiry of Bank Nifty to Friday can be viewed from two perspectives. Firstly, BSE F&O contracts, which expire on Friday, have gained popularity among traders due to lower charges than NSE. To counter this competition, NSE introduced the idea of shifting the expiry day. Secondly, NSE’s previous successful experiment with the Finnifty’s new expiry day may have influenced this decision,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. He further said that expiry alone may not be the sole factor determining attractiveness; transaction charges will also play a significant role, especially considering the appeal of BSE Sensex F&O contracts.

Different expiry days will help in reducing volatility

“Though Bank Nifty is a thematic index while Nifty is a broad-based index, and though both differ in terms of volatility and price ranges, they are often traded in tandem, with each taking cues from the other, especially during expiry day fluctuations. However, once expiry days become different, it is possible that such a link might diminish. This move is more significant than any of the other similar changes wart expiry days brought in for Fin nifty or that of BSE indices etc., as Nifty and Bank Nifty constitute the lion’s share of derivative volumes,” said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geoje Financial Services. He further said that one could argue that too much may not be good, as now one would have to spare the heightened allocation of resources in terms of attention, research, time etc. to yet another day.

Same expiry day will make it easier for investors to adjust their trading positions

“As NSE looks to gain a competitive advantage over BSE, the Nifty Bank expiry has been shifted to Friday. This will not impact Nifty Bank traders in any way but if both BSE & NSE had the same day as the expiry day would have surely made it easier for investors to remember and accordingly adjust their trading positions,” said A R Ramachandran from Tips2trades.

Brokerages, exchange and government will gain from different day expiry

“Traders will utilize their capital in a more efficient manner if Nifty and Bank Nifty expire on different days; brokers will earn more brokerages, exchange and government will earn more transaction charges and STT,” said Mitesh Karwa, Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio Ltd.

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Rupee rises 33 paise to close at 82.42 against US dollar

Rupee rises 33 paise to close at 82.42 against US dollar

On Wednesday, the rupee closed at 82.75 against the US currency.

The rupee appreciated by 33 paise to close at 82.42 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, as positive macroeconomic data strengthened investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 82.54 against the US dollar and settled at 82.42 (provisional), up 33 paise over its previous close amid sustained foreign fund inflows.

During the day, the domestic unit witnessed an intra-day high of 82.36 and a low of 82.54.

On Wednesday, the rupee closed at 82.75 against the US currency.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.20 per cent to 104.12.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures advanced 0.17 per cent to USD 72.72 per barrel.

“The Indian rupee strengthened amid stellar economic data and foreign fund inflows. It has clocked the best single-day gain in almost two months following dollar inflows and lower commodity prices,” Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities said.

Foreign institutions bought USD 4.5 billion of domestic stocks in May, the most since November.

Though the spot USDINR fell on Thursday, technical is signalling a continuation of the bullish trend, Parmar said, adding that looking ahead, traders will eye on Friday’s US payrolls data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 193.70 points or 0.31 per cent to end at 62,428.54 points, and the broader NSE Nifty fell 46.65 points or 0.25 per cent to 18,487.75 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital market on Wednesday as they purchased shares worth Rs 3,405.90 crore, according to exchange data.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, manufacturing activities in India advanced further and touched a 31-month high in May supported by stronger increase in new orders and favourable market conditions.

Meanwhile, the Centre’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 6.4 per cent of the GDP in 2022-23 from 6.71 per cent in FY22.

Unveiling the revenue-expenditure data of the Union government for 2022-23, the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) said the fiscal deficit in absolute terms was Rs 17,33,131 crore (provisional), marginally down from the amount projected in the Revised Estimates (RE) in the Budget.

Moreover, according to official figures released on Wednesday, India’s economy grew by 6.1 per cent in the March quarter of 2022-23, pushing the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent on account of better performance by agriculture, manufacturing, mining and construction sectors.

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Commercial LPG price cut by Rs 83.5, ATF by 7 per cent

Commercial LPG price cut by Rs 83.5, ATF by 7 per cent

A 19-kg commercial LPG now costs Rs 1,773 in the national capital, down from Rs Rs 1,856.5, according to price notification from state-owned fuel retailers.

Price of commercial LPG, which is used by business establishments like hotels and restaurants, on Thursday was cut by Rs 83.5 per 19-kg cylinder — the third straight monthly reduction, while rates of jet fuel (ATF) were slashed by 7 per cent on softening international oil prices. A 19-kg commercial LPG now costs Rs 1,773 in the national capital, down from Rs Rs 1,856.5, according to price notification from state-owned fuel retailers.

This is the third straight monthly reduction in commercial LPG prices. Rates were cut by Rs 91.5 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, and by a steep Rs 171.5 on May 1. The three reductions have almost wiped out the Rs 350.5 per cylinder hike in prices effected from March 1.The price of domestic LPG — the one households use in the kitchen for cooking purposes — remained unchanged at Rs 1,103 per 14.2-kg cylinder in the national capital.

Domestic LPG rates were last changed on March 1, when they were hiked by Rs 50 per cylinder. State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revised cooking gas prices on the 1st of every month based on the average international price in the previous month. Separately, ATF price was cut by a steep 7 per cent in line with international trends.

Accordingly, jet fuel rates were reduced by Rs 6,632.25 per kilolitre to Rs 89,303.09 per kl in Delhi. This is the fourth straight monthly reduction in rates. Prices were cut by 4 per cent (Rs 4,606.50 per kl) on March 1, by 8.7 per cent (Rs 9,400.68 per kl) on April 1 and by 2.45 per cent (Rs 2,414.25 per kl) on May 1.

ATF price is revised on the 1st of every month based on the average rate of international benchmark and foreign exchange rates.International oil prices have erased all gains made since OPEC+ producers announced a surprise production cut earlier in April.Oil prices have fallen to below USD 73 per barrel from above USD 87 per barrel in days following the OPEC+ decision to cut output on concerns over a weak demand outlook and on fears of debt default in the world’s biggest oil consumer, the US.

Oil prices peaked at USD 139 a barrel in March 2022 in the aftermath of Russia-Ukraine war. Petrol and diesel prices, however, continued to remain on freeze for a record 14th month in a row. Petrol costs Rs 96.72 per litre in the national capital and diesel comes for Rs 89.62.

State-owned fuel retailers are supposed to revise petrol and diesel prices daily based on a 15-day rolling average of benchmark international fuel prices but they haven’t done that since April 6, 2022.Prices were last changed on May 22, when the government cut excise duty to give relief to consumers from a spike in retail rates that followed a surge in international oil prices.

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10 transformations of last decade put India’s economy on a rocket; target $8 trillion economy: Morgan Stanley

10 transformations of last decade put India’s economy on a rocket; target $8 trillion economy: Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley projected India’s real growth to average 6.5% in the decade, making India the third-largest economy at nearly $8 trillion by 2031.

10 transformational changes that have happened in India over the last decade are now set to propel the country to doubling per capita income, doubling export market share, raising the share of manufacturing, boosting corporate profits, and significantly improving other economic health indicators, said Morgan Stanley.. In its latest report titled ‘How India has Transformed in Less than a Decade’, global investment bank accredited policy changes, such as DBTs, supply-side policy reforms, and modification of the IBC, that led to overwhelmingly positive changes, influencing India’s macroeconomic situation, global standing and local share markets for the better.

Ridham Desai, MD, Morgan Stanley India, also countered global opinions that India has underperformed, saying, “We run into significant skepticism about India, particularly with overseas investors, who say that India has not delivered its potential (despite its being the second-fastest-growing economy and among the top-performing stock markets over the past 25 years) and that equity valuations are too rich. However, such a view ignores the significant changes that have taken place in India, especially since 2014.” In order to demonstrate his rationale, the report focussed on ten key changes which have had far-reaching consequences and implications for the economy and market.

The ten changes highlighted by Morgan Stanley are:
1.Supply-side Policy Reforms
2.Formalization of the Economy
3.Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act
4.Digitalizing Social Transfers
5.Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code
6.Flexible Inflation Targeting
7.Focus on FDI
8.India’s 401(k) Moment
9.Government Support for Corporate Profits
10.MNC Sentiment at Multi-year High

The implications of these changes on the economy
The primary impact of the changes is the steady rise of manufacturing and capex as a proportion of the GDP. Morgan Stanley projected that the share of both will gain by 5 percentage points each. Additionally, India’s export market share will rise to 4.5% by 2031, which is nearly twofold from 2021 levels, while the per capita income is expected to clock in at $5,200 within the next decade. “This will have major implications for change in the consumption basket, with an impetus to discretionary consumption,” said the report, adding, “We expect India’s real growth to average 6.5% in the next 10 years, making India the third-largest economy at nearly $8 trillion by 2031, up from fifth-largest currently.”

This structural transformation will feed into the saving-investment dynamics, bolstering the country’s external balance sheet, in turn, leading to a narrower CAD. Domestic profits might double, which, while it explains the rich equity valuations, will lead to “a major rise in investments, a moderation in the CAD and an increase in credit to GDP to support the coming profit growth”.

“Indian companies will likely witness a major increase in their profits share to GDP. Triggered by supply side reforms by the government, we expect a major rise in investments coupled with a moderation in the current account deficit and an increase in credit to GDP to support this rise,” said Morgan Stanley.

Implications on the share markets
Once these implications are achieved, it will lead to a lower correlation with oil prices as well as the US recession. It might also trigger a re-rating in the domestic share markets valuation. “This reflects persistent domestic demand for stocks and higher growth for longer. India is trading at a premium to long-term history, albeit well off highs and in line with recent history,” the report added. The report also noted that India’s beta to emerging markets has fallen to 0.6, which is a consequence of improved macro stability and reduction in dependence on global capital market flows to fund the CAD.

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IRCTC share price tanks 2% today despite Q4 net profit jumps 30%; board declares dividend of Rs 2 per share

IRCTC share price tanks 2% today despite Q4 net profit jumps 30%; board declares dividend of Rs 2 per share

IRCTC stock plunged 2% on Tuesday. The company’s shares have gained nearly 3% in the last one month while they have fallen 9% in the last one year.

IRCTC share price tanked 2% to Rs 632.75 today on profit booking after the state-owned company’s net profit rose 30.4% to Rs 278.80 crore in Q4FY23 from Rs Rs 213.78 crore in the same period the previous year. The company’s board recommended a final dividend of Rs 2 per equity share of face value of Rs 2 each for the financial year ended March 2023, at 100% of the paid-up share capital of Rs 160 crore. IRCTC stock has gained nearly 3% in the last one month while falling 9% in the last one year.

“This final dividend is in addition to the interim dividend of Rs 3.50 per share declared by the Board of Directors in the month of February 2023 and already paid to the shareholders,” IRCTC said in a regulatory filing.

IRCTC share price tanked 2% to Rs 632.75 today on profit booking after the state-owned company’s net profit rose 30.4% to Rs 278.80 crore in Q4FY23 from Rs Rs 213.78 crore in the same period the previous year. The company’s board recommended a final dividend of Rs 2 per equity share of face value of Rs 2 each for the financial year ended March 2023, at 100% of the paid-up share capital of Rs 160 crore. IRCTC stock has gained nearly 3% in the last one month while falling 9% in the last one year.

“This final dividend is in addition to the interim dividend of Rs 3.50 per share declared by the Board of Directors in the month of February 2023 and already paid to the shareholders,” IRCTC said in a regulatory filing.

IRCTC stock on Tuesday, touched an intraday high of Rs 645 and a low of Rs 625. The shares touched a 52-week high of Rs 775 on 7 November 2022 and a 52-week low of Rs 557 on 6 July 2022. At the current price of Rs 634.25, the company’s market capitalisation stands at Rs 50,740 crore. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty 50 rose 55.30 points or 0.30% to 18,653.95 and BSE Sensex jumped 147.99 points or 0.24% to 62,994.37 today.

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