Adani group shares soar up to 9% as Hindenburg says ‘it is shutting down’

Adani group stocks were ruling higher in stock market trade on Thursday, January 16, 2025. Adani group stocks surged up to 9 per cent intraday after short-selling firm Hindenburg Research, infamous for its report against the group, said it has wound up its operations. 

On the bourses, Adani Power share price surged 9.2 per cent (Rs 599.9 per share), Adani Green Energy share price leaped 8.8 per cent (Rs 1,126.8 per share), Adani Enterprises share price 7.7 per cent intraday (Rs 2,569.85 per share), Adani Total Gas share price 7.1 per cent (Rs 708.45 per share), Adani Energy Solutions share price 6.6 per cent (Rs 832 per share), and Adani Ports share price 5.4 per cent (Rs 1,190).

Besides, Ambuja Cements share price gained 4.5 per cent (Rs 542.9 per share), ACC share price 4.1 per cent (Rs 2,054 per share), and NDTV share price 7 per cent to Rs 157.9 per share. By comparison, the BSE Sensex today was seen holding gains, trading 0.4 per cent higher at 9:45 AM. 

In a social media post on ‘X’, formerly Twitter, Hindenburg Research Founder Nate Anderson said that he had made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research. 

“The plan has been to wind up after we finished the pipeline of ideas we were working on. And, as of the last Ponzi cases, we just completed and are sharing with regulators,” Anderson announced in a blog post shared on X.

He further said that there was no one specific thing, no particular threat, no health issue, and no big personal issue behind the decision. 

“Someone once told me that at a certain point, a successful career becomes a selfish act. Early on, I felt I needed to prove some things to myself. I have, now, finally found some comfort with myself, probably for the first time in my life,” Anderson explained. 

I probably could have had it all along had I let myself, but I needed to put myself through a bit of hell first. The intensity and focus have come at the cost of missing a lot of the rest of the world and the people I care about. I, now, view Hindenburg as a chapter in my life, not a central thing that defines me, he added.

Notably, Hindenburg Research had launched scathing attacks against Adani group firms in January 2023, alleging that the group had engaged in “stock manipulation” worth nearly Rs 18 trillion ($ 218 billion) and “accounting fraud schemes” over decades. 

The US-based short-seller firm had alleged that the Adani family controlled offshore shell entities in tax havens islands/countries like Caribbean, Mauritius, and the United Arab Emirates to facilitate corruption, money laundering and taxpayer theft, while syphoning off money from the group’s listed companies. 

On its part, market regulator Sebi (Securities and Exchange Board of India) had completed 22 of the 24 investigations in Adani-Hindenburg case. The market regulator had also issued show-cause notices to Hindenburg and a group entity of Adani. However, any order on the matter has not been issued yet.

Later, Hindenburg Research had accused Sebi chief Madhabi Puri Buch, stating that she had a conflict of interest in the Adani matter due to her previous investments in the group. 

“Sebi was tasked with investigating investment funds relating to the Adani matter, which would include funds Buch was personally invested in and funds by the same sponsor which were specifically highlighted in our original report,” Hindenburg had said back in August 2024. 

“The Indian entity, still 99 per cent owned by the Sebi Chairperson, has generated Rs 23.985 million ($312,000) in revenue (i.e. consulting) during the financial years ‘22, ‘23, and ‘24, while she was serving as Chairperson, per its financial statements,” it added.

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This Ashish Kacholia portfolio stock zooms 20% on strong Q3 results

Shares of Aeroflex Industries locked in upper circuit of 20 per cent at Rs 223.20 on the BSE in Thursday’s intra-day trade amid heavy volumes after reporting a strong set of numbers for the quarter ended December 2024 (Q3FY25). 

The average trading volumes on the counter jumped over seven-fold, with a combined 8.52 million equity shares, representing 6.6 per cent of the total equity of Aeroflex changing hands on the NSE and BSE till 12:05 PM. Moreover, there are pending buy orders for 650,000 shares on the exchanges, data showed. The stock had hit a record high of Rs 235 on December 12, 2024.

Investor Ashish Kacholia held 2.38 million, or a 1.84 per cent stake, in Aeroflex at the end of December quarter, the shareholding pattern data showed. 

Aeroflex is engaged in the business of manufacturing and supply of metallic flexible flow solutions made with stainless steel. The product range includes stainless steel corrugation products (braided and non-braided) such as hose, double interlock flexible metal hoses, composite hose, stainless steel hose assemblies, teflon/PTFE hose, and fittings, among other items. The company has established itself as a leading global provider of metallic flexible flow solutions, catering to diverse industrial sectors worldwide. 

In Q3FY25, Aeroflex reported a 68 per cent year-on-year (YoY) jump in consolidated profit after tax at Rs 15.21 crore, on the back of a 35 per cent YoY jump in total income, at Rs 100.37 crore. The company’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) grew at a healthy 48 per cent YoY to Rs 22.70 crore, with a strong Ebitda margin of 22.8 per cent, an improvement of 199 bps.

The management said the strong growth was driven by a strategic shift towards the company’s assembly business, increased domestic projectbased sales, and sustained market demand. Looking ahead, the management plans to further expand capacity for value-added offerings, which are expected to enhance the company’s Ebitda margins and strengthen its market position. 

“To support these initiatives and explore growth opportunities, the company is evaluating fund raising options to drive both organic and inorganic expansion, reinforcing our commitment to sustainable progress and stakeholder value creation,” the management said. 

Looking ahead, Aeroflex is poised for a promising future, driven by its strategic focus on expanding its product portfolio, enhancing its global presence, and leveraging advanced manufacturing capabilities, the management added. The company said it is committed to capitalising on the emerging opportunities across diverse industrial segments, including aerospace, oil and gas, solar, robotics, semiconductors and electric vehicles. Aeroflex’s ongoing investments in digitisation and Industry 4.0 initiatives are set to drive operational efficiencies, ensuring the company remains at the forefront of innovation and excellence, they added.

Meanwhile, Aeroflex, which generates approximately 84 per cent of its revenues from international markets, is well positioned to benefit significantly from a healthy global demand of flexible flow solutions, given that it is an integral part of key industries (like steel & metals, oil & gas, chemicals, port terminal handling, paper, pharma, and residential & commercial real estate, among others). Moreover, the company is expanding its presence to new-age sectors like fire sprinklers, solar, robotics, semiconductors, aerospace & satellite and electric mobility, as well. 

With Aeroflex expanding capacity across existing segments and venturing into new product segment (metal bellows), it remains focused on improving profitability through increasing the overall share of better-margin products, analysts at ICICI Securities said in a recent company note.

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CEAT share plunges 7% as Q3 profit tanks 46%; margin squeezes 380 bps

Tyre manufacturer CEAT share price plunged as much as 7.11 per cent to hit an intraday low of Rs 2,840 apiece on Thursday, January 16, 2025.  

The fall in the CEAT share price came after the company posted a weak set of December quarter (Q3FY25) results.  

CEAT’s consolidated net profit (Bottomline) plunged 46.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 97.1 crore in the December quarter of financial year 2025 (Q3FY25), from Rs 181.5 crore in the December quarter of financial year 2024 (Q3FY24). 

The tyre maker’s topline, also known as revenue from operations, however, surged 11.4 per cent annually to Rs 3,299.9 crore in Q3FY25, from Rs 2,963.1 crore in Q3FY24. 

At the operating front, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) plummeted 18.4 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 340.9 crore in Q3FY25, from Rs 417.6 crore in Q3FY24. 

Consequently, Ebitda margin squeezed 380 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y to 10.3 per cent in Q3FY25, from 14.1 per cent in Q3FY24.  

On the Q3 results, Arnab Banerjee, MD & CEO, CEAT, said, “We witnessed a strong year-on-year double digit growth, driven by the replacement segment. While the rising raw material costs have impacted our margins, we progressively passed on part of the increase through price increase in select categories during the quarter. The demand continues to remain stable, and our order book pipeline is robust across all segments. Raw material prices look flattish in Q4 and we expect growth momentum to continue.”

What do analysts say? 

ICICI Securities analysts noted that CEAT has guided for a continued inflationary trend in the raw material basket, though at a reduced rate of 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent in Q3 compared to Q2. This would provide room for the company to enhance margins through calibrated price hikes, leading to the expected quarter-over-quarter margin decline.  

The company anticipates the raw material basket to remain flat in Q4FY24, with growth momentum expected to persist. A key point to watch is the commentary from other players regarding the bottoming out of the raw material basket in Q3FY25. The company’s topline growth was encouraging, driven by strong performance in replacement and export markets, alongside a recovery in the OEM segment.

On the other hand, Motilal Oswal, while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 3,058, reported that CEAT’s net sales grew by 8 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 3,300 crore, in line with expectations. This was primarily driven by strong volume growth in both replacement and export segments.  

The company saw an 11 per cent Y-o-Y increase in revenue to Rs 3,300 crore, benefiting from improved realisations on both Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q bases. However, the gross margin contracted by approximately 450 basis points Y-o-Y and 60 basis points Q-o-Q to 36.8 per cent, mainly due to rising raw material costs. 

Consequently, Ebitda declined 18 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 340 crore, also in line with expectations, with Ebitda margins contracting by 380 basis points Y-o-Y and 60 basis points Q-o-Q to 10.3 per cent. Adjusted PAT came in lower than expected at Rs 86.3 crore, marking a 53 per cent Y-o-Y decline, primarily due to higher-than-anticipated interest costs and taxes. 

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Zen Technologies share price falls over 11% on January 13; details here

Shares of aerospace and defence company Zen Technologies fell 11.32 per cent to Rs 2,180 in trade on Monday, January 13, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) amid a broader stock market crash. Meanwhile, the company, in an exchange filing, announced that its board of directors has approved an investment of up $10 million in its wholly owned subsidiary, Zen Technologies USA, Inc, in one or more tranches. 

Zen Technologies USA, incorporated on March 9, 2018, focuses on the design and development of combat training simulators and systems for military and security forces. Its product offerings include live-fire, virtual, and constructive training solutions, with a special emphasis on counter-drone technology. The company said that the investment aims to leverage new growth opportunities in the US market.

Zen Technologies is engaged in designing, developing, and manufacturing state-of-the-art simulators. The company primarily caters to training simulators for police forces, anti-drone systems, and paramilitary and armed forces, along with government departments in sectors such as transport, mining, and infrastructure, as well as the civilian market. 

As of January 13, 2025, the company has a market capitalisation of Rs 19,862.07 crore on the NSE. The defence company’s shares have a 52-week range of Rs 2,627 to Rs 688.05 on the NSE. 

Zen Technologies shares have delivered a 57 per cent return in the past six months, and a whopping 180 per cent return in the last one year.

At around 2:27 PM on Monday, the shares were quoted at Rs 2,185.20, down 11.11 per cent from their previous close of Rs 2,458.45 on the NSE. Nearly 0.67 million equity shares of Zen Technologies had traded on the BSE and NSE, amounting to an estimated turnover of Rs 154 crore as of the time of writing. 

Meanwhile, benchmark equity indices were trading lower on Monday. The NSE Nifty50 was quoted at 23,107.25, down 1.38 per cent, while the 30-share Sensex was lower by 953 points, trading at 76,425.03.

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Paytm, Angel One, Kalyan Jewellers among 6 stocks with huge short build-up

With the markets in a downtrend several stocks have logged back-to-back losses in the recent trading sessions. Data from NSE futures & options market shows, that 33 out of the 223 stocks in the derivatives segment logged a net loss in the last four trading sessions; with a majority of them i.e. 30 out of these 33 stocks seeing an over 10 per cent increase in open interest (OI). 

In general, a dip in price accompanied with a corresponding increase in open position (interest) is considered as build-up of short position at the particular contract. 

Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty 50 index had ended last week with a loss of 2.4 per cent at 23,432. The Nifty January futures were down 0.6 per cent on Friday while the OI also dipped by 0.7 per cent. However, over the last four trading sessions the Nifty January contract has seen near 9 per cent increase in OI amid the declining trend. 

NSE data shows that Tata Exlsi has seen a huge 63.5 per cent increase in OI, while the stock dipped by 8 per cent. On Friday along the stock was down 7 per cent on the back of 33.5 per cent rise in OI.

Among others, in the last four trading sessions, CESC has shed 7.2 per cent while the OI jumped by 44.3 per cent. Paytm tumbled 12.5 per cent amid a near 40 per cent surge in OI. Kalyan Jewellers has cracked 16.5 per cent while the OI rose over 35 per cent.

Similarly, Angel One and JSW Energy too witnessed an over 27 per cent increase in open positions, while the respective stocks logged an 8.2 per cent and 10.2 per cent fall. 

Category-wise bets on Nifty / Index futures 

Data shows that retail investors are most bullish at current juncture, with the long-short ratio in index futures at a seven-month high. An analysis of F&O data reveals that retail investors index futures long-short ratio now stands at 2.53 – implying 5 open positions on the long (bullish) side of trade as against 2 short (bearish) bets. 

Retail investors were this bullish last on June 04, 2024, the day of Lok Sabha Elections results, with a long-short ratio at 2.45. 

On the other hand, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continue to hold heavy short positions with index futures long-short ratio at 0.19. This ratio implies that FIIs hold 5 short positions for every long trade in index futures. 

Data shows that FIIs OI in Nifty futures alone has increased by 20 per cent in the last four trading sessions; while the total OI in index futures has increased by 16.9 per cent in the same period. FIIs OI in Bank Nifty and   MidCap Nifty futures has risen by 16 per cent and 8.8 per cent, respectively. Thus suggesting an overall negative bias on the Indian stock market for now. 

Analysis of the Nifty options data too suggests softening sentiment, with aggressive call writing and reduced put interest. 

“Aggressive call writing in the 23,500 – 24,000 range signalled diminishing buying interest while unwinding put positions underscored mounting bearish sentiment. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) edged up from 0.65 to 0.73, reinforcing a prevailing bearish tone. The max pain point stands at 23,700.” said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst at  SAMCO Securities.

A sustained dip below 23,270 would expose the Nifty to further declines toward 23,000. The broader trend remains bearish, favoring a “sell-on-rise” strategy as buyers struggle to sustain gains at elevated levels, Dhupesh added.

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