Global brokerage firm Nomura has released its latest projections for the Indian equity markets, suggesting that the Nifty 50 could potentially cross the 29,000 mark by 2026. This forecast comes at a time when India’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by strong GDP growth, robust corporate earnings, and steady domestic demand.
Nomura’s Key Expectations
Nomura’s analysis highlights several factors that could drive the Nifty higher over the next year:
- Economic Growth: India’s GDP growth of 8.2% in Q2 2025 has reinforced confidence in the country’s long-term trajectory.
- Corporate Earnings: Earnings momentum across sectors such as banking, IT, auto, and infrastructure is expected to remain strong.
- Domestic Liquidity: Rising retail participation and consistent inflows from domestic institutional investors provide a cushion against foreign outflows.
- Policy Support: Government reforms, tax rationalization, and infrastructure spending are expected to sustain growth.
- Global Positioning: India’s relative stability compared to other emerging markets makes it an attractive investment destination.
Nomura believes that while short-term volatility may persist due to currency pressures and global uncertainties, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, paving the way for Nifty to scale new highs.
Risks to the Outlook
Despite the optimistic forecast, Nomura cautions that certain risks could delay or moderate the rally:
- Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Outflows: Continued selling by overseas investors could weigh on sentiment.
- Currency Weakness: The rupee’s record low against the dollar raises concerns about imported inflation.
- Global Uncertainty: US Federal Reserve policy, energy prices, and geopolitical tensions remain key external risks.
- Profit-Booking: After record highs, markets may witness intermittent corrections.
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Conclusion
Nomura’s projection of Nifty crossing 29,000 by 2026 reflects confidence in India’s economic fundamentals and market resilience. While risks remain, the combination of strong domestic demand, corporate earnings growth, and policy support provides a solid foundation for long-term investors. For those looking to capitalize on this potential, disciplined strategies and professional research will be essential to navigate volatility and maximize returns.
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