Markets stage comeback: NIFTY50 and SENSEX recoup morning losses; Midcap 100 jumps 1200 points from lows

Domestic equity indices staged a sharp recovery during the mid-market session as the key benchmark and broader indices recouped major losses. The broader indices, like NIFTY midcap 100 and small-cap 100, jumped 500 points from the intraday lows of 15490.

Meanwhile, broader indices were also trading in red with the BSE Midcap index and Small-cap index falling in the range of 0.70-0.85%.

Market participants were cautious as U.S. Treasury yields rose after testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised some doubt about the path toward lower rates. Rising crude oil prices also weighed on domestic sentiments. Crude oil prices rose amid concerns over Russian and Iranian oil supply and sanctions threats despite worries that escalating trade tariffs could dampen global economic growth.

On the global front, Asian markets traded mostly in green as investors digested U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff impact on regional economies. Back home, in the stock-specific development, Indo Count Industries surged after the company reported a healthy set of numbers for the December 2024 (Q3FY25) quarter.

The SENSEX recouped major losses to trade at 75121, down by 121 points or 0.22% after trading in a range of 75388.39 and 76409.27. The index had 10 stocks advancing and 20 stocks declining.

The NIFTY50 traded at 23,039.55, down by 19 points or 0.14% after trading in a range of 22798.35 and 23097.95. The index had 18 advancing stocks and 32 declining stocks.

The top gainers on Nifty were SBI Life up by 3.01%, HDFC Life Insurance up by 2.21%, Apollo Hospital up by 1.88%, Tata Consumer up by 1.44% and Trent up by 0.96%. On the flip side, Indusind Bank down by 2.39%, Bharat Electronics down by 2.28%, Hero MotoCorp down by 2.19%, ITC down by 2.10% and Reliance Industries down by 2.01% were the top losers.

Asian markets were trading mostly in green; Hang Seng advanced 325 points or 1.53% to 21,619.86, Jakarta Composite gained 42.82 points or 0.65% to 6,574.81, Shanghai Composite strengthened 0.96 points or 0.03% to 3,319.02, KOSPI increased 7.62 points or 0.3% to 2,546.67 and Nikkei 225 surged 104.46 points or 0.27% to 38,905.63. However, Straits Times fell 2.08 points or 0.05% to 3,858.68 and Taiwan Weighted lost 43.65 points or 0.19% to 23,340.40.

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RBI cuts repo rate: SBI Chairman reveals when banks may reduce deposit rates

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points last week and set it to 6.25 per cent from its current level of 6.5 per cent. People are now eagerly waiting to see how the banks will react with changes in lending and deposit rates.

State Bank of India Chairman CS Setty has confirmed that the bank will revise its lending rates linked to the external benchmark lending rate or EBLR this month itself. Speaking to Business Standard, Setty said, “We will have an ALCO (asset-liability committee) meeting this week, and from this month itself, the new rates will be effective.”

Will banks cut deposit rates soon?

Setty also said that probably most banks are not going to reduce deposit rates at this juncture. Credit demand in the current quarter remains strong, he said.

“They may wait for this quarter to be over. This is a busy period with good credit growth, and banks need deposits to support lending. A few banks may make a move, but most will likely wait until the next quarter before deciding on deposit rate cuts,” he said.

RBI’s rate cut and its impact

February 7 Sanjay Malhotra, the new RBI Governor, indicated a repo rate cut, and it kept the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF), the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF), and bank rates standing at 6.5 per cent.

Deputy RBI Governor M Rajeshwar Rao said the deposit rates will take at least two quarters to reflect the rate adjustments. RBI Governor Malhotra also clarified that in the NCLR system, the change in deposit rate will be a gradual process. Long-term fixed deposits of five years or more will not experience an immediate revision.

As banks evaluate liquidity and credit growth, severe cuts in deposit rates would probably also be very much dependent upon the economic conditions during the next quarter.

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4 things investors should understand about the gold rally in early 2025

Gold prices have been on fire.

At the time of writing this on February 11, the price of the yellow metal was $2,913 per ounce (which equals 31.1 grams). Gold is bought and sold internationally in US dollars.

From December 31 to February 11, the price of the yellow metal has gone up by 11.6% in dollar terms. In rupee terms, the gold price at the time of writing this, on BSE, was ₹85,635 per 10 grams. This implies a return of close to 13% during the course of this year. The gold prices across different cities seem to be higher than this, implying returns of even higher than 13% in rupee terms. This at a point when stock prices have been falling.

Now, this raises several points.

First, why have gold prices been on fire? The two word answer for that is Donald Trump, the US president. Trump has been taking a series of economic measures that he and his administration think will help the American economy. These measures have the potential for destabilising the global economy from where it currently is.

In such a scenario, many investors look at gold as a safe haven investment. This has led to money flooding into gold and thus driving up prices at such a quick pace.

Second, why are returns higher in rupee terms? The simple answer for that lies in the fact that the rupee has depreciated against the dollar in the last few months, and that has spruced up returns on gold in rupee terms.

Third, in order to understand the meaning of gold as a safe haven investment, one needs to understand what is known as the Lindy effect. The Lindy Effect basically suggests that the longer something has been around, the greater are its chances of continuing to exist in the days to come.

Or as Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes in Antifragile—Things That Gain from Disorder: “If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “aging” like persons, but “aging” in reverse.”

As he further writes: “Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!”

Now, how does this apply to gold and safe haven investing? Gold, a durable and non-perishable asset, has maintained its value for centuries. During times of uncertainty—whether political, economic, or financial—many individuals turn to gold as a reliable investment. It serves as a safe haven, a trusted refuge for preserving wealth. This practice of safe-haven investing has endured for hundreds of years, solidifying gold’s role as a timeless store of value.

So, given that gold has been looked as a safe haven of investment in the past, it will be looked as a safe haven in the future as well. This stems from the fact that gold was money across large parts of the world until paper money or fiat money became the order of the day.

Fourth, the media is currently flooded with stories on gold. Some stories have taken this opportunity to talk about having gold in the overall investment portfolio, in order to emphasise on the importance of diversification, that is not putting all eggs in one basket, when it comes to investing. There are other stories in the media which are asking the question: Should you invest in gold now? These stories miss the most important point, which is that investment portfolios need to be well diversified at all points of time, for the simple reason that no one can see the future coming with all clarity.

In the last few years, anyone who had money invested in gold, would have done much better by investing that money in stocks. But then the tide has turned over the last few months and gold has been doing well. There is no way of knowing these things in advance. The world is too complicated to be able to make these predictions confidently over and over again. Hence, talking about gold being important for diversification once gold prices have already run up quite a bit, and stock prices have been falling, doesn’t really achieve anything.

Also, trying to predict the future price of gold is a bit of a mug’s game, because there is no way to know for sure. That’s the long and the short of it.

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Sensex, Nifty crumble over 1% on Trump tariffs, weak earnings show

Sensex is down over 1,000 points on Tuesday and Nifty down 1.3 per cent as Donald Trump’s tariff announcements spooked Dalal Street and weak corporate earnings weighed on the market sentiment. The benchmark Sensex was trading at 76,259, down 1,047 points, or 1.33 per cent. Zomato (-5.05 per cent), Tata Steel (2.91 per cent), L&T (-2.83 per cent), Bajaj Finserv (-2.74 per cent), Hindustan Unilver (2.18 per cent) were among the top losers on the 30-share index.

The broader Nifty50 was down 1.3 per cent, or 303.5 points, at 23,078 in the afternoon. While Eicher Motors (-6.61 per cent), Apollo Hospitals (6.37 per cent), and Shriram Finance (3.7 per cent) were the biggest losers, Adani Enterprises (+1.45 per cent), Grasim (0.87 per cent), and Trent (0.54 per cent) were the top gainers on the 50-share index. BSE MidCap was trading at 40,982, down 1,179 points, or 2.8 per cent. BSE SmallCap was down 1,613 points, or 3.29 per cent.

Trump on Monday raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 25 per cent “without exceptions or exemptions” and said he would announce plans to impose reciprocal levies on several countries in the next two days.

The ongoing decline in Indian equities is driven by uncertainty on US tariffs, Reuters quoted UR Bhat, co-founder of investment firm Alphaniti Fintech, as saying, with some analysts adding that the bearish undertone is being fuelled by slowing earnings and sustained foreign outflows.

Both the Nifty 50 and Sensex lost about 1.5 per cent in the last four sessions. Foreign investors have offloaded Indian shares worth $9.94 billion so far this year.

On Tuesday, financials slipped 1 per cent, led by a 1 per cent decline in HDFC Bank.

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India’s AI strategy: A look at key govt announcements following DeepSeek disruption

Amid questions over India’s place in the global AI race, Union Minister of Electronics and Information Technology Ashwini Vaishnaw, on Tuesday, February 4, said that the country will develop its own Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) in the next three to five years, and a domestic foundational AI platform can be expected in the next 10 months.

“We are working on multiple, actually three options, where we take a chipset which is at some reasonable level available in open source or available as a licensed thing, and then build upon that to build our own GPU. That’s the approach the entire world has followed and that approach will be able to give us India’s own GPU in the time frame of three to five years,” Vaishnaw was quoted as saying in a report by PTI.

Once used to process multimedia content in video games, GPUs are in massive demand across the world as they are now used to power foundational AI models. US chip company Nvidia currently dominates the GPU market with over 80 per cent market share.

The IT minister’s remarks come after Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s upheaval of the tech industry, sparked by the release of its reasoning model that is said to rival other cutting edge foundational AI models on many fronts despite being built at a fraction of the cost.

DeepSeek’s surge in popularity has prompted a discussion about whether India is lagging behind in the AI race that is increasingly perceived to be dominated by the United States of America and China.

Here is a look at the central government’s announcements in the wake of DeepSeek’s rise.

Local foundational AI model

A few days after DeepSeek’s low-cost foundational model rattled tech stocks across markets, Vaishnaw announced that the government is building a domestic large language model (LLM) of its own as part of the Rs 10,370 crore IndiaAI Mission.

He said that the government is in touch with at least six developers, but did not specify how much it would cost to build the model and the companies the government is currently in touch with.

Vaishnaw also said that the government has selected 18 AI-based apps focused on areas such as agriculture, learning disabilities, and climate change to provide the first round of funding under the IndiaAI Mission.

“Over the last 1.5 years, our teams have been working closely with startups, researchers, professors etc. Today, we are calling for proposals to develop our own foundational model. The model will take care of the Indian context, languages, culture, are devoid of biases,” Vaishnaw told reporters.

Referring to research cited by DeepSeek in making its AI models more efficient, Vaishnaw said, “Many of our researchers and startups are also studying some of those papers. There are some papers of 2003 and 2005 which basically tell you how to do a lot of good engineering on the process.”

GPU procurement

Vaishnaw said that the government will make available 18,000 high-end GPU-based compute facilities for AI development to entities in the country in the next couple of days.

“We already embarked 18,000 GPUs, very high-end GPUs, and out of that, 10,000 are already available. So this 18,000 compute power will be rolled out in a couple of days. The tender process got completed last week, and in another couple of days, 3-4 days, this will be rolled out,” Vaishnaw said.

The government has also selected 10 companies that will supply 18,693 GPUs, including the Hiranandani Group-backed Yotta, Jio Platforms, Tata Communications, E2E Networks, CMS Computers, Ctrls Datacenters, Locuz Enterprise Solutions, NxtGen Datacenter, Orient Technologies, and Vensysco Technologies.

Nearly half of the total GPUs will come from Yotta alone, who has committed to offer 9,216 units.

These GPUs are being procured by the central government under the IndiaAI Mission, which was sanctioned Rs 2,000 crore for 2025-26 (a fifth of the scheme’s total outlay of Rs 10,370 crore), as per the Union Budget 2025 proposed by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1.

Sitharaman also announced a new presumptive taxation regime for non-residents providing services in India’s electronics manufacturing sector, a move that could give a fillip to foreign technicians and entities working in the electronics sector in India, and help the country’s aspirations of becoming a semiconductor manufacturing base.

Common GPU compute facility

The government will launch a common compute facility, from where startups and researchers can access the computing power, in the next few days. The cost of accessing higher end GPUs would be Rs 150 per hour, and using lower end GPUs would cost Rs 115.85 per hour.

To further ease access to these services, the government will give a 40 per cent subsidy to end users on the total price.

“Globally, GPU access costs $2.5-$3 per hour. We are making it available, after the subsidy for around $1 per hour,” Vaishnaw said.

“The researchers, startups, academicians, colleges, IITs, all of them can have access to this compute power, and they can start foundational models,” the IT minister was quoted as saying.

Centre of Excellence for AI for education

The government will set up a new centre of excellence for AI for education with an outlay of Rs 500 crore, Sitharaman said during her budget speech.

“I had announced three centres of excellence in artificial intelligence for agriculture, health and sustainable cities in 2023. Now, a centre of excellence in artificial intelligence for education will be set up with a total outlay of Rs 500 crore,” she said.

Sitharaman also revealed plans for five National Centres of Excellence for Skilling, designed to equip youth with industry-relevant expertise.

“These centres will be set up with global partnerships to support Make for India, Make for the World manufacturing,” Sitharaman stated. The initiative will cover curriculum design, training of trainers, a skill certification framework, and regular assessments.

These moves come amid concerns that AI could displace a number of jobs in India. “Although the impact of AI on labour will be felt across the world, the problem is magnified for India, given its size and its relatively low per capita income,” read the Economic Survey 2024-25 released on January 31.

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