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Goldman Sachs expects the Indian stock markets to remain volatile in the near-term even as the overall valuations have come off meaningfully from their peak levels seen in September 2024. As a strategy, they remain ‘Marketweight’ on India within the emerging markets (EM) context, and recommend focusing on quality growth and earnings visibility. 

“While our strategy team also believes that the worst is likely behind us in terms of economic growth and earnings trajectory, and prices have corrected meaningfully, they see higher market volatility in the near term given still elevated domestic positioning in small/mid-caps and ongoing global uncertainty from tariffs,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs in a recent report.

Amidst this backdrop, Goldman Sachs has highlighted ten stocks that offer 23 per cent upside (on average) over the next 12 months and includes HDFC Bank, AU Small Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), MMYT, Indigo, Adani Ports & SEZ, Power Grid, Apollo Hospitals, Titan and GCPL.  

“These names have strong tailwinds within their respective sectors and have the potential to deliver strong returns over the next 12 months due to either positive catalysts or healthy EPS growth momentum. As per our estimates, these companies are expected to deliver average earnings growth of 25 per cent and return on equity (ROE) of 24 per cent on average over 25-27E,” the note said.

Goldman Sachs top India bets for FY26

The Nifty 50 has corrected 10 per cent from its peak in September 2024, Goldman Sachs said, driven by cuts in earnings per share (EPS) growth following a slower macro as well as a sharp correction in the valuation multiples across sectors. Across the market, FY26 EPS expectations, the note said, have been cut by an average of 7 per cent. 

Growth slowdown 

On the economic front, Goldman Sachs believes that the growth slowdown is cyclical rather than structural, and largely reflects policy tightness — the lagged effects of credit regulation in late 2023, cautious monetary policy and (until recently) tight liquidity amidst FX outflows, and most importantly fiscal tightening. 

“Some recent policy easing measures (income tax relief in the union budget and policy rate cuts by the RBI) may help revive real GDP growth later in the year, with our economists expecting 6.4% growth in the second half of calendar year 2025 (H2-CY25). The risks to these estimates are largely related to the impact of potential reciprocal US tariffs on India,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

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Godrej Properties Ltd (GPL) sold homes worth over Rs 1,000 crore with a total area of about 0.84 million square feet (msf) in its Godrej Madison Avenue project in Kokapet in Hyderabad, which marked the Mumbai-based developer’s entry into the city. 

The project was launched in January 2025 and since then, the company has managed to sell over 300 homes. 

Kokapet is one of Hyderabad’s most sought-after residential and commercial hubs. The area offers connectivity to Outer Ring Road, financial district – Gachibowli, and HITEC City. 

Earlier, the company stated that the project has an estimated booking value of around Rs 1,300 crore. The project has about 1.2 msf of saleable area. It offers premium 3 and 4 BHK residential apartments.

Gaurav Pandey, managing director and chief executive officer of Godrej Properties, said, “We are thrilled with the response to our first project in Hyderabad. This success reiterates the huge growth opportunity available to Godrej Properties in Hyderabad and the strong demand for premium residential developments in Kokapet.” 

Besides, in 2024, Kokapet saw 1,506 new sales transactions with a gross sales value of Rs 1,869 crore, according to Square Yards Data Intelligence, a real estate data analytics platform. 

In 2024, the homes were sold at an average rate of Rs 12,585 per square foot in Kokapet. In 2024, the price declined by 1.9 per cent.

Pandey also informed that the company aims to expand its presence in the city and will be launching another project shortly. 

Additionally, earlier in February, the company sold another Rs 1,000 crore worth of inventory in Pune. 

Previously, Godrej Properties’ profit attributable to equity holders in the third quarter ending December 2024 (Q3 FY25) increased by 161.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 162.64 crore. 

However, the company’s sales declined by 4.8 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 5,446 crore. Despite the decline, the company delivered sales of more than Rs 5,000 crore for the sixth consecutive quarter. On a quarterly basis, sales were up by 4.8 per cent.

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S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India’s GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation.

In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.

“India’s GDP will grow 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, we expect. Our forecast is the same as the outcome for the previous fiscal year, but less than our earlier forecast of 6.7 per cent,” S&P said.

The forecast assumes that the upcoming monsoon season will be normal and that commodity- especially crude– prices will be soft.

Cooling food inflation, the tax benefits announced in the country’s budget for the fiscal year ending March 2026, and lower borrowing costs will support discretionary consumption in India, S&P said.

The global credit rating agency expects central banks in the Asia Pacific region to continue cutting benchmark interest rates through this year.

“The Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates by another 75 bp-100 bp in the current cycle, we project. Easing food inflation and lower crude prices will move headline inflation closer to the central bank target of 4 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2026 and fiscal policy is contained,” S&P said.

Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points from 6.50 per cent to 6.25 per cent in its monetary policy review.

S&P said Asia-Pacific economies will feel the strain of rising US tariffs specifically and a pushback on globalisation more generally.

However, we see domestic demand momentum broadly holding up, especially in the region’s emerging-market economies “Given the volume of policy measures and external pressures hitting Asia-Pacific, the robustness of our forecasts underscores the resilience of the regional economies,” it added.

S&P said that the Donald Trump administration in the US is changing economic policy in key areas.

Domestically, immigration reduction, deregulation and cuts to taxes and government spending are in focus.

Externally, US import tariffs are rising across the board. So far the new US government has imposed an additional 20 per cent tariff on imports from China; 25 per cent levies on some imports from Canada and Mexico, with levies on other products postponed for a month; and a global 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium.

The US has also announced an intention to impose “reciprocal tariffs” and tariffs on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

In our view, the import tariffs will lower growth in the US and abroad, and raise US inflation.

“We now expect the US Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points (bp) only one time in 2025, in the end, and make three such cuts in 2026.

“The heightened uncertainty about US economic policy and its impact, notably around tariffs, is weighing on investment in the US and elsewhere,” S&P said.

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India has ordered Samsung and its executives in the country to pay $601 million in back taxes and penalties for dodging tariffs on import of key telecoms equipment, a government order showed, for one of the biggest such demands in recent years.

The demand represents a substantial chunk of last year’s net profit of $955 million for Samsung in India, where it is one of the largest players in the consumer electronics and smartphones market. It can be challenged in a tax tribunal or the courts.

The company, which also imports telecoms equipment through its network division, received a warning in 2023 for misclassifying imports to evade tariffs of 10 per cent or 20 per cent on a critical transmission component used in mobile towers.

It imported and sold these items to billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s telecom giant, Reliance Jio.

Samsung pushed India’s tax authority to drop the scrutiny, saying the component did not attract tariffs and officials had known its classification practice for years.

But customs authorities disagreed in a confidential January 8 order that is not public but was reviewed by Reuters.

Samsung “violated” Indian laws and “knowingly and intentionally presented false documents before the customs authority for clearance”, Sonal Bajaj, a commissioner of customs, said in the order.

Investigators found that Samsung “transgressed all business ethics and industry practices or standards in order to achieve their sole motive of maximising their profit by defrauding the government exchequer,” Bajaj added.

Samsung was ordered to pay 44.6 billion rupees ($520 million), consisting of unpaid taxes and a penalty of 100 per cent.

Seven India executives face fines of $81 million, among them the network division’s vice president, Sung Beam Hong, Chief Financial Officer Dong Won Chu and Sheetal Jain, a general manager for finance, as well as Nikhil Aggarwal, Samsung’s general manager for indirect taxes, the order showed.

“The issue involves the interpretation of classification of goods by customs,” Samsung said in a statement, adding that it complied with Indian laws. “We are assessing legal options to ensure our rights are fully protected.”

India’s customs authority and the finance ministry did not respond to Reuters’ queries. Reliance also did not respond.

The incident comes as India toughens oversight of foreign companies and their imports.

Volkswagen and New Delhi are locked in a legal battle in which the automaker is challenging a record demand of $1.4 billion in import back taxes on grounds of misclassifying car parts.

The German company denies any wrongdoing in what it called a “matter of life and death” for its India business, but the dispute has rekindled foreign investors’ fears over tax tussles.

The Samsung investigation began in 2021 when tax inspectors searched its offices in the financial capital of Mumbai and Gurugram near New Delhi, seizing documents, emails and some electronic devices. Top executives were later questioned.

The Samsung dispute centers on imports of the “Remote Radio Head”, a radio-frequency circuit enclosed in a small outdoor module that tax officials called “one of the most important” parts of 4G telecoms systems.

From 2018 to 2021, Indian officials found, Samsung paid no dues on imports worth $784 million of the component from Korea and Vietnam.

The component fitted on telecoms towers transmits signals and is subject to a tariff, the government said, though Samsung disagreed on how it functions.

Samsung vehemently defended its classification, backed its case with four expert opinions, saying the component did not perform the functions of a transceiver and could be imported without any duty, the tax order said.

As counter evidence, tax officials cited 2020 letters from Samsung to the Indian government describing the component as a transceiver, which the government said is “a device which transmits” signals.

Samsung “was very much aware about the right classification of the impugned goods,” the tax commissioner added.

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Bank of America Corp (BofA) is set to undergo a leadership transition in its India operations, with Kaku Nakhate stepping down from her role as the country executive after 15 years at the helm. According to an internal memo seen by Bloomberg, Vikram Sahu, currently head of global equity research in New York, has been appointed as her successor. 

Sahu is expected to relocate to India in the second quarter of 2025 to take charge of the bank’s India franchise. Nakhate will continue to serve as CEO of BANA India until Sahu receives regulatory approvals for the position from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). BANA India is the bank’s regulated entity in the country.

Despite stepping down from her executive role, Nakhate will remain with the firm, focusing on senior client relationships in India, the memo stated. 

The leadership change comes at a pivotal time for Bank of America, as the firm moves forward from an internal probe into alleged misconduct involving stock offerings. The investigation led to the departure of three India-based bankers last year, according to reports by Bloomberg. 

Bank of America is one of the world’s largest financial institutions, in terms of it global presence, range of services, and assets under management. The bank has had a presence in India since 1964.

In the quarter that ended on December 31, 2024, the bank reported that its net income climbed to $6.7 billion, or 82 cents per share, compared to $3.1 billion, or 35 cents per share, during the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, the bank earned 82 cents per share, surpassing analysts’ expectations of 77 cents, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. 

The results mirror those of other Wall Street giants like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, all of which benefited from stronger equity markets and investment banking performance. BofA’s sales and trading revenue saw a 10 per cent rise, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth. Equities revenue rose 6 per cent, while fixed income, currencies, and commodities surged 13 per cent.

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