As global markets await a critical OPEC+ production decision, oil prices slipped amid uncertainty. Here’s an in-depth look at where natural gas, WTI crude, and Brent stand—and what lies ahead:
Natural Gas Forecast: Volatility & Consolidation
- Sideways trading continues as markets digest mixed signals on weather and inventories.
- A drop below $3.35/MMBtu could open the door to support in the $3.05–3.10 range, with rallies likely to be sold into.
WTI Crude Outlook: Testing Key Support
- WTI has retreated ahead of an anticipated OPEC+ production hike of 411,000 bpd for July, with traders taking defensive positions.
- A decisive close below $66.00 may trigger a move toward the 50-day moving average near $64.16.
Brent Crude Forecast: Breaking Below $67.50
- Brent also saw weakness, struggling to hold above $67.50–68.00 as supply expectations weigh on prices.
- A drop below that range could open the door to $63.50–64.00 levels.
OPEC+ Supply Watch: August Output Hike Looms
- OPEC+ is considering a larger-than-expected output increase—possibly 550,000 bpd—at its July 6 meeting, following smaller hikes earlier this year.
- In June, OPEC output rose by 270,000 bpd, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Broader Outlook & Price Forecasts
- Morgan Stanley expects Brent to average near $60/bbl by early 2026, amid rising non-OPEC supply and easing geopolitical tensions.
- S&P Global warns WTI might slip into the upper $40s later this year without stable demand.
- Fitch notes persistent oversupply through 2025 due to OPEC+ output increases.
Key Considerations
- Natural gas traders should watch $3.35 support; expect whipsaws.
- Oil traders await OPEC+ next supply move—output hikes could pressure WTI and Brent.
- Major technical support lies at $66 WTI and $67.50 Brent; breaks could lead to further downside.
What to Monitor This Week
- July 6 OPEC+ meeting—any acceleration in supply hikes could continue weighing on crude.
- Inventory data and U.S. economic signals could influence short-term price momentum.
Tailor your strategy with these key levels in mind:
Brent: Long near $63.50–64; stop below $67.50.
Natural gas: Buying near $3.05–3.10; trimming above $3.50.
WTI: Long near $64; stop below $66.
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