OPEC+ Ramps Up Output
Oil prices remain under pressure as traders digest OPEC+’s latest move to boost supply. The group plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, bringing total 2025 additions to 1.78 million bpd—more than 1.5% of global oil demand.
This fresh wave of supply comes just as global trade uncertainty and slowing economic growth weigh on demand expectations.
Brent crude briefly surged past $80 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions but has since fallen back to around $67. Morgan Stanley now forecasts Brent will slide further to $60 by early 2026, citing a likely supply surplus of 1.3 million bpd and easing geopolitical risks.
Natural Gas: Rangebound and Vulnerable
Natural gas futures are struggling to find direction, currently hovering near $3.466. Prices remain pinned below both the 50-day EMA ($3.612) and the 200-day EMA ($3.779), highlighting persistent bearish pressure.
After failing to hold above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $3.568, the market looks increasingly fragile. If support at $3.400 gives way, a further drop toward $3.301 and $3.183 could follow.
To regain any bullish momentum, gas would need a decisive rebound above $3.574. Until then, traders should expect continued consolidation and potential downside.
WTI Crude Oil: Consolidation After Steep Decline
WTI crude remains capped below $67.08, trading in a narrow band between $64.00 and $67.00 following a sharp pullback from $77.12.
Repeated failures to reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level reinforce a bearish bias. Prices are also sitting under both major EMAs, further signaling weakness.
If WTI closes below $64.00, the door opens to declines toward $63.00 and $61.80. A sustained move above $67.16 would be needed to challenge the current downtrend.
Brent Crude: Stuck in Tight Range with Downside Risk
Brent crude is locked in consolidation near $67.91 after tumbling from a recent high above $80. The price remains firmly under the 50-EMA ($70.76) and 200-EMA ($70.47), keeping selling pressure intact.
Every bounce attempt has been capped by resistance around $69.93, showing a lack of conviction among buyers.
The market is ranging between $66.75 and $69.90. A break below $66.75 could open the way for a deeper move toward $64.96 and $63.48. Conversely, only a decisive close above $70.00 would signal a potential recovery.
Outlook
Overall, oil and gas markets are grappling with rising OPEC+ supply, softening demand, and renewed trade tensions. Until these headwinds clear, the bias for both crude and natural gas remains tilted to the downside.
Traders should watch for key support and resistance levels to gauge the next decisive move.
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