- Nifty 50 today (Feb 2, 2026): Trading at ~24,895, up 0.26% after Budget Day losses.
- Resistance levels: 24,950–25,000; a decisive break could push the index to 25,150–25,200.
- Budget impact: The hike in Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on F&O trading triggered sharp declines, marking the worst budget-day performance in six years.
Forecast for 2026
- February 2026: Expected range 22,647–27,388; average ~25,134; projected close ~24,352 (-6.9%).
- March 2026: Forecast close ~23,420 (-3.8%).
- Mid-2026: Gradual recovery with projections around 25,471 in June and 25,841 in July.
- Year-end 2026: Forecast close ~26,888 (+6.08%), suggesting strong upside potential.
Key Drivers Behind the Rally
- Domestic vs. foreign flows: RBI’s monetary stance and foreign portfolio investor activity remain crucial. Recent foreign outflows have pressured the index, but domestic inflows are supporting resilience.
- Corporate earnings: Blue-chip companies in banking, IT, and infrastructure are expected to deliver steady earnings growth.
- Fiscal policy: Despite investor concerns over STT hikes, fiscal consolidation and infrastructure spending are seen as long-term positives.
Risks and Challenges
- Global volatility: US interest rate decisions and geopolitical tensions could trigger foreign outflows.
- Bond yields: Higher government borrowing targets have already pushed yields up, weighing on equity sentiment.
- Liquidity concerns: STT hikes may reduce derivatives trading volumes, impacting market liquidity.
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Conclusion
The Nifty 50’s near-term outlook remains cautious, with resistance around 25,000. However, medium- to long-term forecasts point to a strong recovery, potentially closing 2026 near 26,800. Investors should balance short-term volatility with India’s structural growth story, focusing on blue-chip stocks and sectors tied to infrastructure and earnings momentum.
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