ICICI Bank Q4 preview: Analysts see up to 15% YoY jump in profit, flat NIM

Continuing with its healthy financial performance, ICICI Bank may see double digit growth in net profit during the March quarter of the financial year 2024-25 (Q4FY25), expect analysts. 

That apart, net interest income (NII), they said, could clock high single digit growth on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis in Q4FY25 with a steady net interest margin (NIM) sequentially (quarter-on-quarter; Q-o-Q).

 Among key monitorables, analysts said deposit growth, and margin outlook would be on investors’ radar. 

ICICI Bank Q4 results date, time

ICICI Bank is scheduled to report its Q4 2025 results on Saturday, April 19, 2025.

“The meeting of the Board of Directors of ICICI Bank Limited is scheduled to be held on Saturday, April 19, 2025, to, inter alia, consider and approve the audited financial results (standalone and consolidated) for the quarter and year ending March 31, 2025,” ICICI Bank said in a statement.

ICICI Bank Dividend

Besides the approval of the financial results for Q4FY25, ICICI Bank, on April 19, will consider and recommend dividend, if any, for the financial year ending March 31, 2025 (FY25). 

It will also consider fund raising by way of issuance of debt securities, including by way of non-convertible debentures in domestic markets by way of private placement and issuance of bonds/notes/offshore certificate of deposits in overseas markets; and buyback of debt securities within the limits that the Board is authorised to approve.  

ICICI Bank Q4 results expectations

Nuvama Institutional Equities 

The brokerage expects ICICI Bank’s NII and Other Income to come at ₹28,529 crore, up 15 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹24,741.6 crore. Sequentially, it would mean 4 per cent Q-o-Q growth over ₹27,438.7 crore. 

Of this, NII is projected to rise 2.3 per cent Q-o-Q and 9.1 per cent Y-o-Y. Margin, meanwhile, is expected to improve by 2 basis points (bps) Q-o-Q but decline 13bps Y-o-Y. 

Aided by higher treasury gains, Nuvama expects ICICI Bank to report pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) growth of 18 per cent Y-o-Y/5 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹17,732.8 crore, and net profit increase of 15 per cent Y-o-Y/5 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹12,351.3 crore. 

Mirae Asset Sharekhan 

Mirae Asset Sharekhan analysts project a net profit growth of 12.4 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹12,032 crore in Q4FY25, from ₹10,708 crore seen in Q4FY24. On a Q-o-Q basis, it would be an improvement of 2 per cent over ₹11,792 crore seen in Q3FY25.  

Operationally, PPoP is pegged at ₹17,169 crore, up 14.2 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹15,039 crore, and 1.7 per cent Q-o-Q from ₹16,887 crore.  

NII, meanwhile, is projected at ₹20,716 crore in Q4FY25, higher by 8.5 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹19,093 crore, and 1.7 per cent Q-o-Q from ₹20,371 crore. NIMs, however, could be lower marginally on a quarterly basis. Advances, the brokerage said, are likely to grow by 15 per cent Y-o-Y aided by broad-based growth in all segments. 

Elara Capital 

Elara Capital bakes-in yet another steady quarter for ICICI Bank, with steady loan growth and deposit growth. The loan book is seen at ₹ 13.54 trillion, up 14.3 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹11.84 trillion and 3 per cent Q-o-Q from ₹13.14 trillion. Similarly, deposit book is expected to grow 11.4 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹14.13 trillion and 3.5 per cent Q-o-Q from ₹15.20 trillion.  

It also projects steady NIM at 4.3 per cent, down 13 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y, but up 2 bps Q-o-Q, largely benefitting from cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut impact and lower slippages sequentially.  

NII, in this backdrop, is seen at ₹20,902.5 crore, up 9.5 per cent Y-o-Y and 2.6 per cent Q-o-Q. PPoP, on the other hand, is seen at ₹16,898.6 crore, up 12.4 per cent Y-o-Y/0.1 per cent Q-o-Q. 

“Q4 generally sees higher opex and we expect similar trend this quarter. Slippages are likely to moderate Q-o-Q. This, with steady recovery, would feed into lower NPLs and lower credit costs,” it said. 

Opex is pegged at ₹ 10,934.9 crore, up 12.7 per cent over Q4FY24 and 3.6 per cent over Q3FY25. Credit costs are seen at 0.3 per cent, up 8bps Y-o-Y but down 5bps Q-o-Q. 

Overall, net profit is projected at ₹ 11,822.1 crore, up 10.4 per cent Y-o-Y and 0.3 per cent Q-o-Q.

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