Author: Eqwires

The relief rally seen in the markets in March 2025, according to a Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) report was ‘an odd mix of fundamentals and sentiment’.  

That said, the brokerage expects India’s reasonable macroeconomic situation, expectation of normal monsoons and a sluggish global outlook to provide some tailwind for the market. 

“We can only speculate on the reasons for this odd rally – some investors may have found value in BFSI stocks, some may have rediscovered value in ‘narrative’ stocks, others may have taken solace from reducing FPI selling in the past month and inflows in the past week and FPIs may have returned to EMs with the ‘Trump’ trade disappointing,” the report said.

KIE expects Nifty EPS of ₹1007 in FY25E, ₹1145 in FY26E and 1314 in FY27E with the Nifty trading at 23.3x FY25E, 20.5 x FY26E and 17.9 x FY27E.  

Fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), it believes, will likely see more broadbased growth across sectors, with valuations still reasonable for banks and NBFCs.

Here are the six high conviction stock ideas from KIE that investors can latch on to from a long-term perspective: 

Adani Ports and SEZ – Buy

Current market price (CMP): ₹1,183

Fair Value (FV): ₹1,570 

Adani Ports and SEZ reported in-line 10 per cent domestic port Ebitda growth, with guidance for an improved print in Q4, defying seasonality. 

“We expect EPS to grow by 19.2 per cent in FY26E & by 10.9 per cent in FY27E,” the report said. The stock is currently trading at 18.0x P/E FY27E earnings.  

Apollo Hospitals – Buy

Current Market Price: ₹6,616

Fair Value: ₹8,180 

Apollo Hospitals reported a fine Q3FY24, with healthy traction across hospitals, offline pharmaceuticals and AHL. The December 2024 quarter was the seventh consecutive quarter of sequential improvement in AHL’s margins.  

“Its overall bed expansion in FY25-27E is still much lower than almost all peers. While we stay less sanguine on 24/7, continued sturdy offline FCF should Address any concerns; Maintain Buy.” said Kotak.

Piramal Pharma – Buy

CMP: ₹225

Target price: ₹300 

KIE initiated coverage on Piramal Pharma with ‘Buy’ with a DCF-based FV of ₹300. Piramal Pharma has metamorphosed into a formidable CRDMO player with niche capabilities. The brokerage firm expects higher growth in innovation and differentiated projects.  

“We expect earnings to grow by 375.1 per cent in FY26E & grow by 119.1 per cent in FY27E.  The stock is currently trading at a valuation of 54.9x P/E FY27E EPS,” it said.   

Union Bank – Buy

CMP: ₹126

Target Price: ₹155 

“Union Bank of India had hosted an analyst meet to discuss the outlook for the bank. We came out of the meeting with a positive outlook on asset quality (delinquencies and bad loan recoveries) for the bank,” the Kotak report said. 

While Net Interest Margin (NIM) and business growth might be weak in the medium term, the bank has room to preserve profitability in a healthy range through the lever on credit cost. Given the inexpensive valuations, we maintain ‘Buy’ with an unchanged fair value, it said.  

Cummins India – Buy

CMP: ₹3,052

Fair Value: ₹3,700 

According to KIE, Cummins’ sharp revenue beat reaffirms the health of end markets, strong execution capabilities and competitive positioning. Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) IV being more of a medium-term opportunity versus a near-term threat. The company also benefited on accounts of higher localization & meaningful financial leverage.

“We believe that Cummins would be less hit on bottom-line profitability. We marginally cut estimates by 2-3 per cent & revise fair value (FV) to ₹3,700 (₹3,800 earlier), Buy stays,” the brokerage said. 

Amber Enterprises – Add

CMP: ₹7,211

Target Price: ₹7,811 

According to KIE, there are early signs of a favorable summer season for the room AC category, given the IMD forecasts above-normal maximum temperatures during Mar-May 2025 period. 

“We expect revenues to see a CAGR of 27 per cent over FY2024-27E, driven by growth in components, electronics and Sidwal segments. We expect earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 72.4 per cent in FY26E and 26.5 per cent in FY27E. We revise our estimates by 1-2 per cent up and raise FV to ₹7,800 from ₹7,720; retain Add,” the brokerage said.

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Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries (RIL) is likely to post muted fourth-quarter margins, according to Goldman Sachs, with earnings growth likely to resume in this financial year (FY). 

The global research firm highlighted that the market will focus mainly on the retail segment growth trends and the residual tariff hike-driven growth in Jio. “We expect to hear from the company on guidance for retail growth into FY26 and updates to new energy capacity construction progress,” it said in a note on March 28. 

The conglomerate’s net asset value has moderately improved but remains wide relative to the historical average amid a flat operational margin in FY25 and an earnings downgrade cycle. Goldman Sachs believes that earnings growth will resume in FY26, driven by a rebound in retail earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) growth, acceleration in Jio’s earnings growth to 24 per cent and improving refining margins. 

The brokerage maintained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,640 per share, an upside of 28 per cent since the note was published on March 28. Goldman Sachs continues to see favorable risk-reward with the stock trading near one-standard deviation below its historical mean on forward enterprise value to Ebitda. 

Energy Busniess 

Goldman Sachs expects energy margins to decline sequentially due to weaker oil-to-chemical earnings. They expect a sequential decline in refining in the fourth quarter driven by weaker Singapore refining product cracks and higher crude premiums, suppressing Asia refining margins. The tightening of US sanctions on Russian oil in January led to a tighter supply of Middle Eastern crude, it noted. 

However, the brokerage expects RIL to continue outperforming industry margins, driven by a significant cost curve advantage versus naphtha-based peers driven by low US ethane gas prices.

Telecom busniess 

Goldman Sachs expects Jio Infocomm to report ₹30,500 crore in revenue for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025, up 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 18 per cent year-on-year (YoY).  

Wireless revenue is estimated to grow 15 per cent year-on-year and 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter. “Jio’s subscriber base rose by 3.3 million in the third quarter of the financial year 2025, and we anticipate faster growth across wireless and fixed segments, driven by lower churn after tariff hikes and strong Fixed Wireless Access demand.” 

Analysts at the brokerage firm forecast 9 million new subscribers in the fourth quarter. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is expected to rise to ₹209 in March 2025 from ₹203 in December 2024. Jio’s revenue growth in the fourth quarter should be about 200 basis points faster than Bharti Airtel. 

Retail Business 

According to Goldman Sachs, Reliance Retail’s sales growth (excluding connectivity) for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025 is expected to be 6.5 per cent year-on-year, continuing its sequential improvement from negative 8.5 per cent in the second quarter to 5.7 per cent in the third quarter. However, fourth-quarter sales growth may see a slight impact across all companies due to one fewer day compared to the previous year. 

The improving trend for Reliance Retail is driven by two key factors: the restructuring of the grocery business, including business-to-business rationalization and the closure of low-profitability stores, and a stronger focus in the fashion segment on trendier designs and enhanced value, highlighted by the launch of new fast-fashion formats such as Yousta.  

RIL share price: Reliance Industries stock rose as much as 0.24 per cent during the day to ₹1,255.5 per share. The stock later pared gains to trade 0.18 per cent lower at ₹1,250.4 apiece, compared to a 0.44 per cent advance in Nifty 50 as of 11:57 AM. Shares of the company extended fall to their third day on Wednesday. The stock has risen 2.8 per cent this year, compared to a 1.6 per cent fall in the benchmark Nifty 50. 

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US President Donald Trump is set to roll out new tariffs starting April 2, calling it ‘Liberation Day for American trade’. These tariffs aim at countries that impose high duties on US goods or follow trade policies that Trump’s administration considers unfair.   

While specific details remain unclear, several nations are expected to bear the brunt of these new measures. The Trump administration has long argued that existing global trade rules favour other countries at America’s expense, and these tariffs are positioned as a strong response, reported India Today.   

‘Dirty 15’ countries to be targeted by new tariffs 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently labelled a group of nations as the ‘Dirty 15’ — countries that, according to the administration, impose steep tariffs and trade barriers against US goods.  

Though Bessent did not reveal the exact list, the US Commerce Department’s 2024 trade deficit report offers key insights. Countries with the highest goods trade deficits with the US include:   

– China

– European Union  

– Mexico  

– Vietnam  

– Ireland

– Germany  

– Taiwan

– Japan

– South Korea

– Canada

– India

– Thailand

– Italy

– Switzerland

– Malaysia

– Indonesia 

These nations account for a significant portion of the US trade imbalance and are expected to face the most severe tariff hikes.   

Beyond the ‘Dirty 15’   

In addition, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) has flagged 21 countries for following trade practices that Washington considers unfair. This broader list includes:  

– Argentina

– Australia

– Brazil

– Canada

– China

– European Union (EU)

– India

– Indonesia

– Japan

– South Korea

– Malaysia

– Mexico

– Russia

– Saudi Arabia

– South Africa

– Switzerland

– Taiwan

– Thailand

– Turkey

– United Kingdom (UK)

– Vietnam 

While the focus has been on the ‘Dirty 15’, Trump has hinted that more nations could face trade penalties under his administration’s new economic strategy.   

What tariffs will be imposed? 

The exact tariff structure is yet to be unveiled, but past policies suggest that the new measures could include:  

– Higher tariffs on key industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.   

– Increased levies on foreign automobiles and auto parts, taking effect from April 4.   

– New trade barriers targeting manufactured goods from countries with large trade surpluses with the US.   

Trump has previously imposed broad tariffs on steel and aluminium, levies on foreign cars, and targeted duties on Chinese goods. The upcoming measures are expected to expand those policies while focusing on countries with a significant trade surplus against the US.

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Cigarettes-to-hotels conglomerate ITC Ltd. announced on Monday, March 31, that it has decided to acquire the pulp and paper business of Aditya Birla Real Estate, under the name of Century Pulp and Paper on a slump sale basis.

The transaction will be done on a lump sum consideration of ₹3,500 crore on a cash-free, debt-free basis, subject to closing conditions. Century Pulp and Paper has an installed capacity of 4.8 lakh MT per annum.

Here are three key reasons why this deal is a good one:

First, it will increase ITC’s paper capacity immediately by 60% from the current 8 lakh MT per annum to 12.8 lakh MT per annum. For the December quarter, ITC’s paper business contributed to 12.6% of its overall topline of ₹17,052 crore.

Second, Century Paper and Pulp reported revenue of ₹3,375 crore in financial year 2024 and has maintained a similar run-rate over the last three years. The company has also reported an Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) of ₹500 crore. This means that the deal will be Earnings Per Share (EPS) accretive for ITC right from the first year.

Additionally, the paper business has been in a cyclical downturn for the last three to four years. A turn of the cycle will improve business metrics for the division as the deal has been done at the bottom of the cycle.

ITC is targeting synergies such as increasing its EBITDA per tonne for the paper business by 30% to 40%, its medium-term Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) to be in the high teens and debottleneck its capacity as well as increase it.

The transaction is likely to be completed in the next six months, subject to statutory approvals and conditions laid down in the Business Transfer Agreement (BTA).

Shares of ITC ended little changed on Friday at ₹410.25. The stock is down 22% from its 2024-peak of ₹528.

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Shares of debt-ridden telecom operator Vodafone Idea Ltd. are now locked in an upper circuit of 25% on Tuesday, April 1, after brokerage firm Citi opened a positive catalyst watch for a 90-day period on the stock, along with Indus Towers Ltd.

In developments over the long weekend, the government will now become the largest shareholder of Vodafone Idea after it will convert its spectrum dues into equity. The equity conversion of ₹36,950 crore, will take the government’s total shareholding in Vodafone Idea to 48.99%.

Citi has called this move a material development that will have significant positive implications. The brokerage also said that this is a major display of support by the government in a very timely manner.

The government’s move should provide significant relief to Vodafone Idea’s cash flow in the next three years and help it complete its bank debt raise, the Citi note said. Vodafone Idea has raised over ₹20,000 crore through its largest Follow-on Public Offer (FPO) last year and infusion of funds by promoters.

“Meanwhile, we also believe it will lift concerns on tariff companies like Indus Towers,” Citi said, adding that it has opened a 90-day positive catalyst watch.

Citi has a price target of ₹12 on Vodafone Idea, which implies a potential upside of 77% from Friday’s closing levels.

The brokerage has also opened a 90-day positive catalyst watch on Indus Towers, saying that it expects the resumption of dividend payouts and expects a ₹18 per share payout by April.

Citi’s positive stance on Indus Towers is also based on firm progress by Vodafone Idea on the completion of its debt raise.

“On our FY25-27E forecasts, we expect Indus Towers to deliver a core EBITDA CAGR of 10% excluding writebacks, underpinned by a tenancy CAGR of 8%,” Citi said.

Indus Towers’ implied dividend yield of 5% to 7% presents a compelling investment opportunity, according to Citi’s note.

Citi has a price target of ₹470 on Indus Towers, which implies a potential upside of 41% from Friday’s closing levels.

Macquarie believes that with underlying free cash flow generation inadequate to organically pay back obligations as per the timelines, there will be significant additional equity dilution risks for minority shareholders for Vodafone Idea.

For Indus Towers, the brokerage said that it does not see an improved tenancy outlook despite its key tenant Vodafone Idea getting a lifeline.

Macquarie has a “neutral” rating on Vodafone Idea with a price target of ₹7.

CLSA has also upgraded shares of Vodafone Idea to “outperform” and raised its price target to ₹10.

The brokerage said that following the tariff hikes, Vodafone Idea’s cash generation can fund its capex, while conversion of spectrum dues into equity takes care of repayments over the forecast period.

Out of the 21 analysts that now have coverage on Vodafone Idea, 11 of them still have a “sell” rating on the stock, while five analysts each have a “buy” and “sell” rating.

Among the 24 analysts covering Indus Towers, 13 of them have a “buy” rating on the stock, six of them have a “hold” rating, while five have a “sell” rating.

Shares of Vodafone Idea are trading 25% higher at ₹8.5, while those of Indus Towers are trading 6.9% higher at ₹357.5.

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