Author: Eqwires

India’s wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation in March eased to 2.05 per cent from 2.38 per cent in February, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Tuesday. The marginal decline in inflation was driven by falling prices in food and fuel & power segments, even as prices of manufactured products continued to edge up. 

WPI is used to measure the average changes in the prices of goods sold in bulk at the wholesale level, reflecting the supply and demand in industries like manufacturing and construction.  

The primary articles group, which includes food and crude oil, saw a significant 1.07 per cent decline in prices from the previous month. Notably, crude petroleum & natural gas prices fell by 2.42 per cent, non-food articles dipped by 2.40 per cent, and food articles dropped by 0.72 per cent. However, minerals registered a marginal increase of 0.31 per cent.

WPI Food Index

The WPI Food Index, which includes food articles and manufactured food products, dipped slightly from 189.0 in February to 188.8 in March. WPI-based food inflation rate eased to 4.66 per cent in March from 5.94 per cent the month earlier.  

WPI fuel and power

The WPI Fuel was 0.20 per cent in March, compared to -0.71 per cent in February. The fuel and power group index contracted by 0.91 per cent in March, largely due to a 2.31 per cent drop in electricity prices and a 0.70 per cent fall in mineral oil prices. Coal prices remained unchanged.

WPI manufacturing 

The WPI Manufacturing was 3.07 per cent in March, up from 2.86 per cent in February. Manufactured products, which make up the largest component of the index, rose by 0.42 per cent month-on-month. Key contributors to the increase were basic metals, food products, transport equipment, and machinery. However, there were price declines in textiles, chemicals, electronics, printing, and furniture. 

IIP slows to 2.9 per cent in Feb

India’s industrial output, measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew by 2.9 per cent in February 2025, the slowest pace in six months, data from the National Statistics Office (NSO) revealed last week. This was down from 5.01 per cent in January. Manufacturing growth slowed to 2.9 per cent, while mining and electricity output rose by 1.6 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively.

Retail inflation numbers for March are expected to be released on April 15. 

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Indian stocks rallied as trading resumed after a long weekend, with the benchmark equity index erasing all the losses triggered by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs earlier this month. 

The NSE Nifty 50 Index climbed as much as 2.4 per cent in Mumbai on Tuesday, surpassing its closing level on April 2. That made India the first major equity market globally to erase the tariff-induced losses. A broader gauge of Asian equities is still down more than 3 per cent since the tariff announcements. 

Investors are touting Indian markets as a relative safe haven amid the volatility sparked by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The nation’s big domestic economy is seen able to withstand a potential global recession better than many peers, who face higher tariffs.

An intensifying Sino-American trade war is also shining a spotlight on India as an alternative manufacturing hub to China. In stark contrast to Beijing’s retaliatory moves against US levies, New Delhi has struck a conciliatory tone and sought to reach a provisional trade deal with the Trump administration.

“We remain overweight India in our portfolios,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer of The Global CIO Office. Supported by good domestic growth and aided by a likely diversification of supply chains away from China, Indian equities are seen as a safer bet over the medium term, he said. 

India’s recent rebound follows a slump of almost 10 per cent in the equity benchmark in the last two quarters. The selloff came amid concerns over slowing economic growth, high valuations and an exodus by foreign funds that is still continuing. Overseas funds have already sold more than $16 billion worth of local shares equities this year on a net basis. The most they have withdrawn in any calendar year is $17 billion in 2022.

Even so, relatively lower valuations and optimism that the central bank will aggressively cut interest rates to support the economy are reasons for some investors to turn positive. The falling price of crude oil — a major import — is also aiding sentiment. 

The Nifty 50 benchmark is currently trading at 18.5 times its 12-month forward earnings estimate, compared to the five-year average of 19.5 times and a multiple of 21 times at its peak in late September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

“India is not insulated, but relatively better positioned amid the risk of a trade war given its low direct revenue exposure to US, particularly on the goods side,” said Rajat Agarwal, a strategist at Societe Generale SA. “Indian equities should also benefit if oil prices sustain at low levels.”

The South Asian nation accounted for just 2.7 per cent of total US imports last year, compared with 14 per cent for China and 15 per cent for Mexico, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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India’s trade deficit widened in March, even as policymakers and exporters in the South Asian nation scramble to shield themselves from US President Donald Trump’s global tariff war.  

The gap between exports and imports stood at $21.54 billion last month, the trade data showed Tuesday. This is higher than the $15.5 billion deficit forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. The trade deficit in February had narrowed to $14.05 billion, the lowest in more than three years. 

Exports in March rose 0.7 per cent to $41.97 billion from a year earlier, while imports grew 11.4 per cent to $63.51 billion, the data showed. 

The last financial year “was difficult with so many things happening around the world,” Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal told reporters at a press briefing in New Delhi, referring to rising geopolitical tensions. India’s overall exports in the last financial year crossed $820 billion, he added. 

The reading comes as the South Asian nation rushes to evade the worst of Trump’s trade actions. Indian exporters have been urging New Delhi officials to seal a bilateral trade deal with the US as soon as possible. In February, the two nations had agreed to conclude the first tranche of the pact by fall of this year.

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Wall Street share futures rallied in Asia on Monday after the White House exempted smartphones and computers from “reciprocal” US tariffs, though gains were limited as President Donald Trump warned levies were still likely at some point.

On the face of it, the exemption of 20 product types accounting for 23 per cent of US imports from China, was a boon to manufacturers. However, the off-again, on-again policy gyrations left investors confused and analysts bearish on the long run.

“The post-Liberation Day back-pedalling has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan.

“A 10 per cent universal tax is still a very large shock and the huge 145 per cent tax on China is prohibitive,” he added. “You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect damage everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60 per cent likelihood of a US/global recession.”

After an initial jump, S&P 500 futures pared gains to be up 0.8 per cent, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.25 per cent. The S&P 500 rallied 5.7 per cent last week, but was still more than 5 per cent below where it was before the reciprocal tariffs were first announced in early April.

The market also has more earnings to weather this week with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup among the big banks reporting. Numbers from chipmaker TSMC will be a highlight given Trump’s plan to investigate the entire global semiconductor supply chain.

Data out this week includes US retail sales and Chinese gross domestic product, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Wednesday, when he will almost certainly be quizzed on the prospect of rate cuts and the recent stress in the Treasury market.

Early on Monday, there was scant sign of any recovery in bonds with 10-year yields at 4.49 per cent, having seen the largest weekly rise in borrowing costs in decades.

Not so safe

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6 per cent, having shed more than 4 per cent last week. Japan’s Nikkei added 2.0 per cent, after fluctuating wildly in recent days in response to the changing tariff news.

Japanese officials are gearing up for trade negotiations with the United States that will likely touch on currency policy, with some officials privately bracing for Washington to call on Tokyo to prop up the yen.

They might not need to work too hard given the dollar had taken a beating from worries the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy was shaking investor faith in US assets.

“The key questions are around the indirect damage done through generating extreme uncertainty around the policy and economic outlook, the ongoing dislocations in the Treasury market and, ultimately, undermining confidence in US institutions and asset markets,” said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

“It is no longer hyperbole to say that the dollar’s reserve status and broader dominant role is at least somewhat in question, even if the inertia and network effects that have kept the dollar on top for decades are not going away any time soon.”

The dollar was a shade firmer at 143.72 yen after hitting a six-month low at 142.05 last week. It was pinned at 0.8176 Swiss francs, having shed more than 5 per cent last week to the lowest in a decade.

The euro held at $1.1334, just short of a three-year top of $1.1474. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut rates by a quarter point to 2.25 per cent.

Canada’s central bank also meets this week, and markets imply around a one-in-three chance it might trim its 2.75 per cent rates.

In commodity markets, global uncertainty was proving a windfall to gold prices which surged to all-time peaks at $3,245.28 last week. The metal was trading at $3,218 an ounce on Monday.

Oil has had a much tougher time amid fears of a global economic slowdown and increased supply from OPEC, though it found some support from the risk of an end to Iran’s exports. 

Brent was down 9 cents at $64.67 a barrel, while US crude eased 7 cents to $61.44 per barrel.

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