Author: Eqwires

With both companies releasing their Q1 FY25 results, investors are weighing proven stability against disruptive growth. Here’s a detailed breakdown to help you decide which stock aligns better with your strategy.

Financial Performance Snapshot

Metric	Bajaj Finance	Jio Financial Services
Net Profit (Q1 FY25)	₹4,765 crore (+22% YoY)	₹325 crore (+4% YoY)
Total Income	₹19,524 crore (+21% YoY)	₹619 crore (+48% YoY)
Net Interest Income (NII)	₹10,227 crore (+22% YoY)	₹363 crore (+124% YoY)
Assets Under Management (AUM)	₹4.42 lakh crore (+25%)	₹11,665 crore (vs ₹217 cr)
Customer Additions	4.69 million	Rapid expansion underway

Bajaj Finance continues to deliver consistent growth across all metrics, while Jio Financial is showing explosive expansion, especially in AUM and income.

Business Model & Strategy

Bajaj Finance

• Diversified lending across consumer, SME, and commercial segments
• Strong presence in urban and semi-urban India
• Focused on risk management, cutting exposure to MSME and two-wheeler loans
• Investing in AI-based solutions for operational efficiency

Jio Financial Services

• Digital-first approach with aggressive scaling
• Backed by Reliance Group’s ecosystem
• Expanding into lending, payments, insurance, and mutual funds
• JV with BlackRock for asset management adds global credibility

Technical Outlook

• Bajaj Finance: Approaching key resistance levels; upside may be limited in short term. Long-term trend remains bullish.
• Jio Financial: Recent breakout above ₹280; strong momentum with support around ₹290–₹310. Targeting ₹370 in medium term.

Investment Perspective

Jio Financial Services suits those looking for high-growth potential and are comfortable with higher risk.

Bajaj Finance is ideal for investors seeking stability, proven performance, and predictable returns.

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Amagi Media Labs, a Bengaluru-based SaaS firm specializing in cloud-native video delivery solutions, has filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with SEBI, proposing a ₹1,020 crore IPO. This marks a significant step as Amagi gears up to expand its technology infrastructure and global footprint.

IPO Structure and Breakdown

The IPO includes two major components:

• Fresh Issue: ₹1,020 crore to be raised
• Offer for Sale (OFS): Up to 3.41 crore shares by existing investors like Accel, Norwest Venture Partners, Premji Invest, and others

Additionally, the company may opt for a pre-IPO placement of ₹204 crore, which will proportionally reduce the fresh issue size.

Strategic Investment Goals

Amagi plans to utilize ₹667 crore from the fresh issue towards:

• Enhancing cloud infrastructure
• Strengthening technology platforms
• Funding future acquisitions
• General corporate purposes

Market Position

Since its inception in 2008, Amagi has evolved into a global leader in SaaS-based video solutions. It serves over 45% of the top 50 media and entertainment companies worldwide, offering:

• Cloud Modernisation Services
• Streaming Channel Management
• Content Monetisation and Marketplace Tools

Financial Snapshot

For FY25, Amagi reported:

• Operating Revenue: ₹1,162 crore
• EBITDA Margin: 2.02%
• CAGR since FY23: 30.7%
• Turnaround from earlier losses to EBITDA-positive status

With this IPO, Amagi is not just raising capital—it’s reinforcing its position as a global media tech powerhouse.

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India’s financial markets have just witnessed an extraordinary moment. The National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is launching its ₹4,000 crore IPO on July 30, and long-term institutional investors are unlocking jaw-dropping returns—up to 39,900 percent.

Who’s Booking Massive Gains?

This IPO is a pure Offer for Sale (OFS), meaning NSDL isn’t raising fresh capital. Instead, early shareholders are liquidating parts of their long-held stakes.

Institution	Buy Price per Share	Sell Price per Share	Estimated Returns
SBI	₹2	₹800	39,900%
IDBI Bank	₹2	₹800	39,900%
SUUTI	₹2	₹800	39,900%
NSE	₹12.28	₹800	6,415%
Union Bank	₹5.20	₹800	15,000%+
HDFC Bank	₹108.29	₹800	638%

These figures aren’t just impressive—they reflect some of the highest returns ever seen in Indian equity history from IPO exits.

Why This Exit Matters

While the gains are staggering, this sale is partly regulatory. SEBI norms mandate that institutions like NSE and IDBI Bank reduce their stake below 15 percent, leading to this strategic divestment.

Key IPO Details

• IPO Open: July 30 to August 1
• Price Band: ₹760 to ₹800
• Grey Market Premium (GMP): ₹145–₹155, suggesting potential 18% listing gains
• Allotment Date: August 4
• Listing Date: August 6
• Anchor Book: Opens July 29

Financial Snapshot

NSDL’s Q3 FY25 results show strength, with net profit rising 29.8% year-on-year to ₹85.8 crore and revenue growing 16.2% to ₹391.2 crore. At the upper price band of ₹800, the IPO values NSDL at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 46.6, compared to its peer CDSL trading at a P/E of 66.6, indicating relatively attractive valuations.

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Global stock markets witnessed a broad-based decline as investors exercised caution ahead of a pivotal week featuring central bank policy decisions, economic data releases, and major corporate earnings reports. With uncertainties around inflation, interest rates, and global economic stability, risk sentiment has noticeably weakened across regions.

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Key Reasons Behind the Market Decline

1. Upcoming US Federal Reserve Decision
Investors are closely watching the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week. While the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, any hawkish commentary regarding future policy could unsettle markets.

2. Global Inflation and Economic Data
Inflation numbers from the United States, Eurozone, and major Asian economies are scheduled for release. Persistently high inflation could force central banks to maintain or even tighten policy stances.

3. Weakness in China’s Economy
China’s recovery remains fragile, with recent industrial output and property sector data reflecting ongoing challenges. This has put pressure on regional indices, particularly in Asia.

4. Corporate Earnings in Focus
Investors await quarterly results from global technology giants, banking majors, and energy companies. Any earnings disappointments could further weigh on sentiment.

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Global Market Snapshot (as of July 29, 2025)

• United States:
  • Dow Jones: -1.2%
  • S&P 500: -1.4%
  • Nasdaq: -1.8%
• Europe:
  • FTSE 100: -0.9%
  • DAX: -1.3%
  • CAC 40: -1.1%
• Asia:
  • Nikkei 225: -1.5%
  • Hang Seng: -2.1%
  • Sensex (India): -0.8%

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Major Events This Week

Date	Event
July 30	US Federal Reserve Policy Decision
July 31	US Core PCE Inflation Data
July 31	China Manufacturing and Services PMIs
August 1	Eurozone GDP and CPI Inflation Numbers
August 2	US Non-Farm Payrolls and Job Data

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What Should Investors Do?

Short-Term Strategy:

• Expect heightened volatility throughout the week.
• Avoid taking large speculative positions before key data is out.
• Consider using hedges for downside protection.

Long-Term Strategy:

• Stay focused on fundamentally strong stocks and sectors with robust balance sheets.
• Diversify across equity, fixed income, and global geographies.
• Avoid panic selling and maintain a long-term investment view.

Safe Haven Assets:

• Gold and US Treasuries are likely to remain in demand as uncertainty increases.

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Expert Opinion

Market analysts suggest that this week could set the tone for the rest of the quarter. Investor positioning and sentiment are likely to shift significantly depending on the Fed’s stance, inflation trends, and corporate earnings commentary. It’s important to remain cautious and informed.

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Conclusion

This is one of the most crucial weeks of the quarter for global markets. Central banks, inflation data, and corporate earnings will collectively determine the short-term trajectory of equities. Investors are advised to remain calm, manage risk effectively, and focus on quality investments.

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Bajaj Finance Ltd., one of India’s top non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), witnessed a sharp sell-off in today’s trade. The stock dropped over 5% intraday after global brokerage firm JPMorgan downgraded the stock and slashed its target price, citing asset quality concerns and slowing growth outlook in the near term.

This comes amid broader market volatility and pressure across the financial sector.

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What Triggered the Fall?

1. JPMorgan Downgrade
   The global brokerage downgraded Bajaj Finance to Underweight from Neutral and cut its price target significantly. It warned of potential stress in the company’s consumer lending portfolio, especially in discretionary segments.
2. Valuation Concerns
   Bajaj Finance has been one of the most richly valued NBFCs. With high expectations built into the price, any hint of slowdown or risk to earnings is now triggering sharper corrections.
3. Industry-Wide Pressure
   The broader financial sector is under pressure, with many NBFCs facing scrutiny over asset quality and rising competition from fintechs and smaller lenders.
4. Pre-Result Nervousness
   With Q1 FY26 results around the corner, analysts fear that rising credit costs or margin pressures might impact profitability.

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Key Brokerage Views

• JPMorgan: Downgraded to Underweight citing concerns over personal loan stress and peaking growth in the digital consumer finance segment.
• Macquarie: Maintains Neutral view but flags potential earnings miss in Q1 due to softer AUM growth.
• Domestic Analysts: Suggest caution as the risk-reward ratio has turned unfavorable in the short term.

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Stock Performance

• Current Price (as of July 25, 2025): ₹6,950 (down ~5.3%)
• 52-Week High: ₹8,250
• 52-Week Low: ₹6,200
  The stock has underperformed the broader Nifty Financial Services index over the last month.

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Should Investors Be Worried?

While Bajaj Finance remains fundamentally strong with a proven business model, short-term headwinds cannot be ignored. Key risks to monitor:

• Rising competition in BNPL and digital lending space
• Potential increase in delinquencies in the unsecured loan segment
• Impact of high interest rates on borrowing costs and margins

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What Should Investors Do?

Short-Term Traders:

• Avoid fresh long positions until there is clarity post Q1 results.
• Watch for support near ₹6,800–6,900. A breakdown below this could extend weakness.

Long-Term Investors:

• Stay cautious but not panicked. Use dips for staggered accumulation only if Q1 results and commentary remain stable.
• Focus on management guidance regarding asset quality and lending growth.

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Conclusion

The sharp fall in Bajaj Finance shares reflects growing nervousness among investors about the near-term performance of NBFCs, particularly in consumer lending. While the company’s fundamentals remain robust, valuation correction and cautious sentiment from global brokerages have put the stock under pressure. Investors should remain alert, review allocations, and await more clarity from the upcoming quarterly results.

Eqwires Research Analyst

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info@eqwires.com

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