Author: Eqwires

Nifty 50 ends winning streak, Sensex dips 100 points amid cautious sentiment

After an impressive 8-day rally, the Indian equity market paused for breath on Monday, with benchmark indices showing signs of fatigue. The Nifty 50 closed at 25,069.20, down 44.80 points (-0.18%), while the Sensex slipped 118.96 points (-0.15%) to settle at 81,785.74. The broader market remained resilient, with mid- and small-cap indices outperforming.

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10 Key Highlights from Today’s Trade

1. Nifty 50 Snaps 8-Day Rally The index formed a minor bearish candle, indicating profit booking near resistance zones of 25,100–25,300.
2. Sensex Weakens on IT Drag Heavyweights like Infosys, Wipro, and Asian Paints led the decline, pulling the index lower.
3. Realty Sector Outperforms Nifty Realty surged 2.4%, driven by policy buzz around easing building-height norms in Noida.
4. Bank Nifty Holds Firm Closed at 54,887.85, up 0.14%, supported by strength in PSU banks like Bank of Baroda.
5. IT & Pharma Under Pressure Nifty IT fell 0.58%, while pharma stocks like Sun Pharma and Dr. Reddy’s saw profit booking.
6. Mid- & Small-Caps Shine BSE SmallCap rose 0.66%, MidCap up 0.44%, reflecting strong retail participation.
7. Volatility Picks Up India VIX rose around 2%, signaling increased hedging ahead of the US Fed policy decision.
8. FII/DII Flows Mixed FIIs net bought ₹130 crore, while DIIs added ₹1,550 crore—indicating domestic confidence.
9. Currency Stable Rupee closed at ₹88.21/USD, slightly firmer than the previous session.
10. IPO Buzz Continues Over a dozen companies eye ₹10,000 crore in upcoming IPOs, buoyed by policy support and liquidity.

Technical Outlook

• Nifty Range: Immediate support at 24,900; resistance at 25,300–25,400
• Sensex Levels: Support at 81,000; breakout possible above 82,400
• Options Data: Suggests a broader range of 24,600–25,500 for Nifty

Strategic Takeaway

With global cues turning cautious and central bank decisions looming, traders should tighten stop-losses and consider partial profit booking. Sectors like realty and PSU banks remain strong, while IT and pharma may see further consolidation.

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In a bold move to reshape India’s financial landscape, the government has announced its intention to elevate two public sector banks (PSBs) into the top 20 global banks by asset size as part of the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision. This strategic goal was unveiled during the PSB Manthan 2025 conclave in New Delhi, where senior officials from the Department of Financial Services (DFS) and top banking executives gathered to chart the future of India’s public banking sector.

The Vision: Global Scale for Indian Banks

Currently, State Bank of India (SBI) ranks 43rd globally in terms of asset size, and no other Indian PSB features in the top 50. The government’s roadmap aims to change that by scaling up at least two PSBs to global standards through:

• Organic growth in business volumes
• Adoption of advanced technologies
• Improved governance and board autonomy
• Enhanced customer experience and credit delivery

This initiative aligns with India’s broader economic trajectory, as the country is poised to become the third-largest economy by 2030. Experts argue that such an economy must be backed by globally competitive banks capable of supporting infrastructure, trade, and digital transformation.

Consolidation and Capacity Building

India began consolidating its PSBs in 2019, merging 10 banks into four large entities. This led to the creation of:

• Punjab National Bank (PNB) through the merger of OBC and UBI
• Canara Bank, now the fourth-largest lender
• Union Bank of India, formed by merging Andhra Bank and Corporation Bank
• Indian Bank, strengthened by the merger with Allahabad Bank

As a result, India now has seven large PSBs and five smaller ones, down from 27 in 2017. While further consolidation is not currently on the agenda, the focus is on organic expansion, digital modernization, and strategic capital infusion.

Key Themes from PSB Manthan 2025

The two-day conclave highlighted several priorities:

• Credit growth in MSMEs and agriculture
• Cybersecurity and AI adoption
• Improving CASA ratios and profitability
• Board-level reforms and governance standards

Senior officials emphasized that scaling up PSBs will require not just size, but efficiency, innovation, and resilience—hallmarks of global banking leaders.

Strategic Implications for Traders and Investors

This announcement has sparked renewed interest in banking stocks, particularly PSBs with strong fundamentals and growth potential. Traders can expect:

• Short-term momentum trades in leading PSBs
• Options strategies around banking sector volatility
• Swing setups in mid-cap financials
• BTST trades ahead of policy-driven rallies

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In a major consumer-friendly move, Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) has announced significant price reductions across its popular product portfolio following sweeping Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms. Effective September 22, 2025, the revised prices will apply to household staples such as Dove shampoo, Lux soap, Lifebuoy, Horlicks, Kissan Jam, and Bru coffee, offering relief to millions of Indian consumers ahead of the festive season.

What’s Changing

The GST Council’s decision to simplify the tax structure by reducing rates on essential items from 18% to 5% has prompted FMCG giants like HUL to pass the benefits directly to consumers. Here’s a snapshot of the new pricing:

Product	Old Price	New Price	Reduction
Dove Shampoo (340 ml)	₹490	₹435	₹55
Horlicks (200 gm)	₹130	₹110	₹20
Kissan Jam (200 gm)	₹90	₹80	₹10
Lifebuoy Soap (4x75g)	₹68	₹60	₹8
Lux Soap (100 gm)	₹35	₹30	₹5
Bru Coffee (100 gm)	₹180	₹160	₹20

These reductions reflect HUL’s commitment to aligning with government policy while maintaining product quality. The company has confirmed that new stock with updated Maximum Retail Prices (MRPs) will reach shelves shortly.

Why It Matters

This move is expected to:

• Boost consumer sentiment ahead of the festive season
• Increase demand for personal care and food products
• Stimulate retail and rural consumption
• Support FMCG sector growth amid inflationary pressures

The GST Council’s reform is part of a broader effort to simplify India’s indirect tax regime. By moving from a four-slab system to a two-tier structure (5% and 18%), the government aims to make taxation more transparent and equitable.

Market Reaction

Following the announcement, FMCG stocks surged. HUL shares rose over 4%, while peers like ITC, Dabur, and Britannia also posted gains. Analysts expect this pricing reset to improve volume growth and margin stability in the coming quarters.

Strategic Takeaways for Traders

This development opens up several trading and investment opportunities:

• Short-term momentum trades in FMCG stocks
• Options strategies around HUL and sector leaders
• Swing setups in mid-cap consumer names
• BTST trades ahead of festive demand spikes

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The Indian equity markets wrapped up the week on a strong note, with the Nifty 50 climbing above the 25,100 mark and the Sensex rising by 356 points. This marks the biggest weekly gain in nearly three months, driven by a mix of global optimism, domestic resilience, and sectoral momentum.

Market Snapshot

• Nifty 50: Closed at 25,119.25, up 113.75 points
• Sensex: Ended at 81,938.86, up 397.16 points
• India VIX: Dropped 1.76% to 10.18, indicating low volatility
• Derivatives Action: Strong put writing at 25,000 strike; heavy call open interest at 25,500 suggests bullish bias with resistance ahead

This rally marks eight consecutive sessions of gains for benchmark indices, supported by robust buying in financial services, IT, and mid-cap stocks. The Nifty Financial Services index alone rose nearly 3% over the week, with Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, and Shriram Finance leading the charge.

What’s Fueling the Rally?

Global Tailwinds

Softer U.S. jobs data and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have made emerging markets like India more attractive to foreign investors. Asian markets, including Japan and South Korea, hit record highs on optimism around AI-driven earnings and easing monetary conditions.

India–U.S. Trade Optimism

Renewed diplomatic engagement between India and the U.S. has lifted sentiment, especially in export-driven sectors like IT and textiles. Anticipation of tariff rollbacks and GST rationalization is boosting investor confidence.

Technical Breakouts

Nifty has crossed key resistance levels, with analysts now eyeing 25,200 to 25,400 as the next upside targets. Momentum indicators show bullish crossovers, and the Put-Call Ratio has climbed to 1.15, reinforcing the positive undertone.

Sector Highlights

• IT Stocks: Infosys gained 2% following its ₹18,000 crore buyback announcement, leading gains in the tech space.
• Financial Services: Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, and LIC Housing Finance posted strong gains amid rising credit demand and stable macro indicators.
• Mid & Small Caps: Continued to outperform, reflecting strong domestic participation and retail investor confidence.

Strategic Takeaways for Traders

This rally presents multiple opportunities for both short-term and positional traders:

• BTST and intraday setups in trending financial and IT stocks
• Options strategies around Nifty’s breakout levels and sector rotation
• Swing trades in mid-cap names with strong volume and momentum

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Infosys, India’s second-largest IT services company, has announced a massive ₹18,000-crore share buyback, offering ₹1,800 per share—a 19 percent premium over its recent market price of ₹1,512. This move directly affects over 26 lakh shareholders and signals strategic capital deployment during a period of global tech uncertainty.

Key Highlights of the Buyback

• Buyback Size: ₹18,000 crore
• Buyback Price: ₹1,800 per share
• Premium Offered: Approximately 19 percent
• Shares to be Bought Back: 10 crore equity shares
• Route: Tender offer
• Equity Impact: 2.41 percent of total paid-up capital

This is Infosys’ fifth buyback since 2017 and its first via the tender route since 2019. Unlike open market repurchases, the tender offer ensures price certainty and proportionate acceptance, making it more inclusive for retail investors.

Why Infosys Is Buying Back Shares Now

Infosys stock has been under pressure, down nearly 20 percent year-to-date due to weak global IT demand and cautious client spending. The buyback is seen as a vote of confidence from management, aiming to:

• Boost earnings per share (EPS)
• Improve return on equity (ROE)
• Provide tax-efficient returns compared to dividends
• Support the stock price in the near term

Brokerages have responded positively, with target prices ranging from ₹1,700 to ₹1,880. The move aligns with Infosys’ capital allocation policy of returning 85 percent of free cash flow to shareholders between FY25 and FY29.

Impact on Shareholders

Retail investors stand to benefit from:

• Exiting at a premium during a weak market phase
• Participating in a low-risk arbitrage
• Potential post-buyback rally and EPS accretion

Acceptance ratio will depend on the number of shares tendered. Historically, Infosys buybacks have led to short-term price stability, though long-term growth depends on how the company adapts to AI-led disruption and global tech shifts.

Strategic Takeaways for Traders and Investors

This buyback is more than a corporate action—it’s a signal. Infosys holds over ₹40,000 crore in cash reserves and is choosing to reward shareholders rather than pursue aggressive capex. For traders and investors, this opens up several strategic angles:

• Short-term arbitrage for Infosys holders
• Options trading opportunities around buyback volatility
• Sector rotation strategies as IT stabilizes
• Fundamental re-entry for long-term portfolios

Where to Get the Best Trading Insights

Navigating such opportunities requires credible, research-backed guidance. This is where Eqwires stands out as the:

• Best SEBI Registered Eqwires Research Analyst in India
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Whether you’re capitalizing on Infosys’ buyback or building a resilient portfolio, Eqwires delivers the clarity, consistency, and confidence that traders need.

Eqwires Research Analyst

Top-notch SEBI registered research analyst

Best SEBI registered Intraday tips provider

info@eqwires.com

Telegram | Facebook | Instagram

Call: +91 9624421555 / +91 9624461555

www.eqwires.com