India Inc. promoter holdings continue to fall, but experts see no red flags

Promoter ownership in domestic companies has declined to the lowest level since the September quarter of 2017, but market experts say the trend is largely market-driven and does not point to any governance-related concerns. 

In the NSE 500 universe, private promoters’ share of overall holdings has dropped to 39.6 per cent in the March quarter so far, the lowest level since the September quarter of 2017, according to data from Primeinfobase.com. In December 2024, private promoter holdings in the broader universe stood at 39.76 per cent, declining slightly to 39.6 per cent in the quarter under review.  

Among the non-PSU Nifty 50 companies, promoter holdings currently stand at 34.4 per cent, the lowest since June 2017, as per the latest data. There are no governance concerns here as the regulations are strong, said Chokkalingam G, founder of Equinomics Research. He explained that the recent decline in promoter holdings is largely driven by market dynamics, particularly elevated valuations following an unprecedented bull run in calendar year 2024. “Some stocks became extraordinarily overvalued. For instance, metal stocks that typically traded at 8 to 11 times earnings were suddenly valued at 25 to 35 times. This created an opportunity for promoters to offload shares,” he said.

According to Chokkalingam, promoter selling at such high valuations should not be viewed with suspicion but rather as a signal for investors to assess price levels more carefully. “Promoters understand their businesses better than most investors. If they are selling at a certain level, that price should serve as a reference point in the next market cycle,” he added. 

The reduction in the holdings comes in a quarter that was marked by a correction in the market triggered by global funds outflows amid valuation and trade war-related concerns. During the March quarter, the benchmark Nifty50 and the 30-stock Sensex saw a decline of 0.5 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, the Nifty midcap and small-cap indices fell by 13 per cent in the quarter.

A lower promoter holding does not necessarily indicate a negative outlook for a company, said Deven Choksey, Managing Director of DRChoksey FinServ Pvt. Ltd. The very purpose of a company getting listed on the exchanges is to dilute its stake in order to raise funds. As long as companies receive the right valuation for the stake they offload, it should not be a concern. 

He added, one needs to consider the market capitalisation of the company to assess whether promoter offloading is an issue. There would be no red flag if a large-cap company reduces its holding, but it could raise concerns for a small-cap firm.

Shift in tide: DIIs versus FIIs 

This shift comes when, for the first time that domestic institutional investors (DIIs) now own a larger share of India’s top 500 listed companies than foreign institutional investors (FIIs), marking a structural realignment in India’s capital markets. 

As of March 2025, DIIs held an 18.4 per cent stake in Nifty 500 companies, surpassing foreign institutional investors (FIIs), whose ownership declined to 18.16 per cent. The FII-DII ownership ratio, which once stood at approximately 1.5 times in September 2021, fell to 0.99 times in the March quarter, highlighting the rising influence of domestic capital in Indian equities.

According to a note by Motilal Oswal, DIIs increased their holdings across 18 of 24 sectors, with the highest inflows going to banks (private and PSU), consumer durables, technology, cement, insurance, oil and gas, and automobiles—sectors seen as long-term structural plays.

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Defence shares resume up move; BDL, BEL, HAL rally up to 7% in weak market

Shares of defence companies have resumed their up move on the bourses in an otherwise weak market on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Tuesday. They rose on expectations of a strong growth outlook on the back of strong government backing. 

Bharat Dynamic (BDL), Zen Technologies, Bharat Electronics (BEL), Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (GRSE), BEML, Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL), Paras Defence, Mishra Dhatu Nigam (MIDHANI) and Cochin Shipyard have rallied between 3 per cent and 7 per cent.  

At 11:37 am, Nifty India Defence index, the top gainer among sectoral indices, was up 3.4 per cent, as compared to the 0.66 per cent decline in Nifty 50.

The Nifty India Defence index has outperformed the market from its previous month low, with the index surging 24 per cent from its level on April 7, 2025, amid escalating border tension between India and Pakistan. In comparison, the Nifty 50 index has recovered 12 per cent during the same period. 

Meanwhile, in the past two months, the Nifty India Defence index has surged 30.5 per cent, as against 10.6 per cent rise in the benchmark index.

In addition to the India-Pakistan conflict last month, India has approved a major government-to-government agreement with France to procure 26 Rafale Marine fighter jets valued at ₹63,000 crore. The agreement includes 22 single-seater Rafale-M jets and four twin-seater trainers, with deliveries expected to be completed by 2031, according to reports. 

Defence sector outlook

India was the fourth largest military spender in the world in 2023, after the USA, Russia and China. The Government of India (GoI), in the Union Budget for FY2026, continued the increasing trend in allocation to capital outlay with a year-on-year (YoY) rise of 12.8 per cent in FY2026 Budget Estimates (BE) to ₹1.92 trillion, resulting in a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6 per cent during FY2019-FY2026(BE). This, coupled with the Government’s aim to reduce import dependence, would open up various opportunities and benefit domestic companies, according to ratings agency ICRA. 

Buoyed by the increased budgetary allocation, coupled with the Government’s aim to reduce dependence on imports and its production target of ₹1.75 trillion by FY2025, ICRA estimates opportunities worth ₹3.00 trillion for the Indian domestic entities over FY2025 and FY2026, 22 per cent- 23 per cent of which are expected to be accounted for by private sector entities.

India’s defense exports have increased significantly in recent years, reaching a record ₹21,000 crore in FY24 (Source: Defense Ministry). This is a 33 per cent increase from the previous fiscal year. India has set a defense exports target of ₹30,000 crore by FY26. In this context, the new $850 billion plan by the European Union (EU) provides a major opportunity for domestic public and private defence companies, especially for exports of subsystems and components to EU original equipment manufacturers (OEM), said analysts at Elara Capital in the sector report. 

Meanwhile, according to the drone federation of India, the country’s drone market revenue will expand from nearly $500 million in FY24 to $11 billion by FY30. With Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) drones already deployed in conflict zones, leaders stress the need for rapid scaling and reduced reliance on costly foreign systems. 

BrahMos is a supersonic cruise missile developed jointly by India and Russia. This plant marks a major leap in India’s pursuit of self-reliance in defence manufacturing. It not only boosts indigenous production but also positions India to meet export demands, potentially making it a global supplier of advanced missile systems.

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L&T up 7% in 2 days, crosses 200-DMA after 4 months; chart flags this alert

Shares of Larsen & Toubro have extended the post Q4 results rally, and appreciated another 3.6 per cent in trades on Monday. The stock has now gained 7.4 per cent in the last two trading sessions. In the process, the stock is now seen trading above its 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA) for the first time since January 8, 2025. In general, the 200-DMA is considered as a key technical indicator in determining the long-term trend of a particular stock or index. Stocks or indices quoting above this key moving average are considered bullish, and vice versa.

Meanwhile, Nomura in L&T’s post earnings research call retained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, but lowered the price target from ₹ 3,820 to ₹ 3,670 per share. The overseas brokerage firm believes that L&T’s core operational performance was broadly in-line, but the core margin outlook still remains lukewarm.

on-year (YoY) increase in revenue at ₹ 74,392.28 crore. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) was up 13 per cent YoY at ₹ 8,203 crore. The management has guided for sales growth/ core EBITDA margin of 15 per cent YoY / 8.5 per cent in FY26.

Here’s a technical outlook on Larsen & Toubro stock.

Larsen & Toubro (L&T)

 Current Price: ₹ 3,565 Upside Potential: 10.8% Support: ₹ 3,515; ₹ 3,507 Resistance: ₹ 3,630; ₹ 3,660 Apart from crossing the 200-DMA, L&T stock has also given a breakout on the daily scale and is expected to trade with a favourable bias as long as the stock holds above ₹ 3,507 levels. The 200-DMA stands at ₹ 3,515.

On the upside, the stock faces an overhead resistance around ₹ 3,630 – ₹ 3,660 levels. Technical chart suggests that break and sustained trade above this level holds the key for further gains. In the event of a successful breakout, the stock can potentially rally to ₹ 3,950 levels.

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Stock Market Close: Sensex jumps 2975-pts as India-Pak tensions ease, investors richer by ₹16.15 tn

Confluence of positive geopolitical and economic developments—the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, coupled with a breakthrough trade agreement between the US and China—sparked the strongest daily market rally in recent times. Tarriff issue had the pivotal role in the stock market’s consolidation over the year. Sudden easing of the US-China tariff war unlocked multiple investment avenues for investors. 

Sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows, along with a resurgence in retail participation fuelled by expectations of a swift improvement in business sentiment, propelled today’s upside. However, while the momentum remains strong, the market may enter a phase of consolidation in the near term as investors await concrete signs of earnings growth. In the meantime, mid & small caps are expected to maintain the optimism in the broad market. 

Technically, the sharp rise in the Nifty marks a continuation of the uptrend following a three-week consolidation phase. Having crossed the previous swing high of around 24,857, the index is now poised to inch towards the 25,200 level, while the 24,400–24,600 zone is expected to offer strong support on any dip.

In light of the widespread buying momentum, a ‘buy on dips’ strategy remains prudent. Investors should focus on selecting stocks based on the relative strength of specific sectors and prevailing market themes.

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Birla Corp shares see best day in 5 years as stock rallies 20%; here’s why

Shares of Birla Corporation were locked in a 20 per cent upper circuit on Monday after it reported a 32.72 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in consolidated net profit in the January–March quarter (Q4FY25).  

Birla Corp.’s stock rose as much as 20 per cent during the day to an upper circuit of ₹1,268.8 per share, the biggest intraday gain since May 26, 2020. This compares to a 3 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty50 as of 12:15 PM. The stock trades at the highest level since December last year.  

From its recent lows of ₹910, which it hit in early March, the counter has recovered by nearly 40 per cent. The stock has advanced 2 per cent this year, compared to a 4.25 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty 50. Birla Corp. has a total market capitalisation of ₹9,781.60 crore.

The M P Birla Group’s flagship company recorded a 32.72 per cent Y-o-Y rise in consolidated net profit to ₹256.61 crore in Q4FY25. In the year-ago period, net profit had stood at ₹193.34 crore. 

Consolidated revenue in Q4FY25 stood at ₹2,863.14 crore, up 6.8 per cent from ₹2,680.13 crore in the same period last year. In Q3FY24, revenue was ₹2,272.07 crore. 

Despite a sharp increase in profit during the March quarter, consolidated revenue for FY25 stood at ₹9,312.40 crore, down 4.4 per cent. Consolidated net profit for the full year was ₹295.22 crore, down 29.8 per cent.

Cement sales by volume during Q4FY25 grew 8 per cent Y-o-Y to 5.2 million tonnes (mt). For the full year, the company sold 18.1 mt of cement, compared to 17.6 mt in the previous year—an increase of 2.5 per cent.

Birla Corp management commentary  

The company attributed the growth to “robust” quarterly production and sales by volume. “This came after three challenging quarters that had affected the entire industry. An uptick in demand and prices during the quarter led to better realisation and a higher capacity utilisation of 105 per cent in the March quarter,” it said in a statement.

Commenting on the developments, Harsh V Lodha, chairman, said, “Our capacity utilisation in central and eastern India is more than 100 per cent. We expect cement demand to grow at a CAGR of 6–7 per cent over the next few years.” 

“To improve our leadership position in high-growth markets, we are ready for the next phase of growth. The addition of fresh capacity will have a favourable impact on profitability and will reduce lead distances, with grinding units located closer to the market,” he added.

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