Author: Eqwires

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), led by Mukesh Ambani, announced its Q3 FY26 results with consolidated profit of Rs 22,167 crore, reflecting a modest 1.66% year-on-year growth.

• Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment: Strong margins in the O2C business provided stability despite global volatility.
• Jio Platforms: Continued subscriber growth and digital expansion offset slower retail performance.
• Retail Segment: Growth slowed due to weaker consumer demand, though long-term expansion plans remain intact.
• Oil & Gas Revenue: Declined, but compensated by resilience in other verticals.

Strategic Pivot: New Energy & AI Infrastructure

Mukesh Ambani emphasized that RIL is entering a “new phase” focused on future-ready businesses.

• New Energy Initiatives: RIL is accelerating investments in renewable energy, hydrogen, and green mobility solutions. This aligns with India’s broader decarbonization goals and positions RIL as a leader in sustainable energy.
• AI Infrastructure: The company is building large-scale AI data centers and digital infrastructure to support next-generation applications. This move is expected to complement Jio’s telecom and digital ecosystem, creating synergies across industries.
• Global Partnerships: RIL is exploring collaborations with technology leaders to strengthen its AI and energy capabilities.

Key Takeaways

Segment	Performance	Outlook
O2C Business	Strong margins sustained earnings	Expected to remain resilient amid global demand shifts
Jio Platforms	Subscriber growth and digital expansion	Positioned for AI-driven services
Retail	Slower growth in Q3	Long-term expansion strategy intact
New Energy	Accelerated investments in renewables & hydrogen	Strategic pivot towards sustainability
AI Infrastructure	Building large-scale data centers	Future-ready digital ecosystem

Market Outlook

Analysts believe RIL’s dual focus on new energy and AI infrastructure will redefine its growth trajectory. While traditional businesses like O2C and telecom remain strong, the pivot towards futuristic sectors is expected to unlock new revenue streams and enhance shareholder value. The company’s ability to integrate energy, technology, and consumer businesses positions it uniquely in the global market.

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Conclusion

RIL’s Q3 FY26 results highlight steady earnings but more importantly, a strategic repositioning towards new energy and AI infrastructure. This bold pivot signals Reliance’s ambition to lead India into a sustainable and technologically advanced future. With strong fundamentals and visionary investments, RIL is preparing to thrive in a brave new world.

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Federal Bank delivered a solid set of numbers in its December quarter (Q3 FY26), prompting brokerage firm Systematix Institutional Equities to revise its stance on the stock from Hold to Buy.

• Net Profit Growth: The bank reported a 9% rise in net profit to Rs 1,041 crore, supported by improved margins and reduced provisions.
• Net Interest Margins (NIMs): Margins expanded, reflecting better cost management and lending efficiency.
• Advances Growth: Loan book growth was particularly strong in gold loans and commercial vehicle/construction equipment (CV/CE) segments, highlighting diversified lending strength.
• Share Price Reaction: Following the announcement, Federal Bank shares jumped 9.50% to Rs 270.35 apiece on the BSE, signaling strong investor confidence.

Revised Target Price

Systematix has raised its target price to Rs 310, citing optimism about the bank’s growth trajectory and management guidance for future advances. This revision reflects expectations of sustained profitability and margin expansion.

Metric	Q3 FY26 Performance	Analyst Outlook
Net Profit	Rs 1,041 crore (+9% YoY)	Continued growth expected
Share Price (Post Results)	Rs 270.35 (+9.5%)	Target revised to Rs 310
Loan Growth	Strong in gold loans & CV/CE	Diversified lending to drive momentum
Margins	Expanded NIMs	Scope for further improvement

Market Sentiment

The upgrade comes at a time when Federal Bank is demonstrating resilience in asset quality and profitability. Reduced provisions and healthy loan growth have positioned the bank favorably among mid-sized private lenders. Analysts believe that the bank’s focus on retail lending, gold loans, and commercial segments will continue to support earnings momentum.

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Conclusion

Federal Bank’s Q3 FY26 results have reinforced confidence in its growth story. With Systematix upgrading the stock to Buy and setting a higher target price of Rs 310, the bank is poised to attract further investor interest. The combination of strong profitability, margin expansion, and diversified loan growth makes Federal Bank a compelling pick in the private banking space.

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LTIMindtree, one of India’s leading IT services and consulting firms, has won a landmark $330 million contract from the Central Tax Department to overhaul and modernize its tax analytics platform using advanced artificial intelligence technologies. This project is expected to transform the way tax data is processed, analyzed, and utilized, making compliance more efficient and strengthening the government’s ability to detect fraud and improve transparency.

Scope of the Project

The contract involves a complete upgrade of the existing tax analytics infrastructure. LTIMindtree will deploy AI‑driven solutions to:

• Enhance data integration across multiple tax systems.
• Implement predictive analytics to identify potential tax evasion patterns.
• Improve real‑time monitoring of compliance and collections.
• Provide user‑friendly dashboards for tax officials and policymakers.
• Strengthen cybersecurity measures to protect sensitive taxpayer information.

This initiative aligns with India’s broader push toward digital governance and smart use of technology in public administration.

Strategic Importance

• Boosting efficiency: AI will reduce manual intervention, speed up assessments, and minimize errors.
• Revenue protection: Advanced analytics will help identify tax leakages and improve collection efficiency.
• Policy insights: Data‑driven intelligence will support better decision‑making for future tax reforms.
• Global benchmark: India’s tax system will move closer to international best practices in digital compliance.

LTIMindtree’s Role

LTIMindtree has a strong track record of delivering large‑scale digital transformation projects for government and enterprise clients. By leveraging its expertise in AI, machine learning, and cloud computing, the company aims to build a scalable platform that can handle the growing complexity of India’s tax ecosystem.

Market Impact

This contract not only strengthens LTIMindtree’s position in the government technology space but also signals a growing trend of public sector reliance on private IT firms for mission‑critical projects. Analysts expect this deal to contribute significantly to LTIMindtree’s revenue pipeline over the next five years.

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Conclusion

The $330 million contract awarded to LTIMindtree marks a significant step in India’s journey toward AI‑driven governance. By modernizing the tax analytics platform, the government aims to improve compliance, transparency, and efficiency across the tax ecosystem. For LTIMindtree, this project reinforces its leadership in digital transformation and sets the stage for further opportunities in the public sector.

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The Supreme Court recently ruled against Tiger Global in its long‑running dispute with Indian tax authorities over capital gains from its 2018 Flipkart stake sale to Walmart. The apex court denied Tiger Global the benefits of tax treaties with Mauritius and Singapore, stating that a Tax Residency Certificate (TRC) alone is insufficient to claim exemptions. This landmark decision has sent ripples across the financial ecosystem.

Impact on Foreign Portfolio Investors

• Scope of impact: Over 500 FPIs that rely on Mauritius and Singapore structures for tax benefits in India’s F&O market may now face scrutiny.
• Commercial substance requirement: FPIs must demonstrate genuine business activity in their chosen jurisdiction, not just paper entities created for tax avoidance.
• Increased compliance: Investors will need stronger documentation, substance tests, and transparent structures to withstand regulatory checks.
• Market sentiment: While short‑term volatility is expected, the ruling could lead to healthier long‑term capital inflows by discouraging treaty abuse.

Broader Implications for India’s Markets

• Tax certainty: The judgment clarifies that India will prioritize substance over form in tax matters.
• F&O market dynamics: With FPIs contributing significantly to derivatives trading volumes, any withdrawal or restructuring could affect liquidity.
• Policy direction: The ruling aligns with India’s broader push for stricter anti‑avoidance measures and global tax transparency.

Challenges Ahead

• Restructuring costs: FPIs may need to relocate operations or redesign investment vehicles, increasing compliance costs.
• Investor confidence: Some funds may hesitate to expand exposure until clarity emerges on future tax treatment.
• Regulatory oversight: The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and tax authorities are expected to intensify monitoring of foreign inflows.

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Conclusion

The Tiger Global ruling marks a watershed moment for India’s financial markets. By challenging treaty‑based tax avoidance, the Supreme Court has set a precedent that will influence how foreign funds operate in the country. While the immediate impact may be uncertainty and restructuring, the long‑term outcome could be a more transparent and resilient investment ecosystem.

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China has achieved a historic milestone by notching a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, marking a 20% increase compared to the previous year. This achievement comes despite persistent tariff measures imposed by the United States under President Donald Trump’s administration, underscoring the resilience of China’s export-driven economy and its ability to adapt to global challenges.

Key Drivers of the Surplus

• Robust Export Growth: Chinese exports surged across sectors including electronics, machinery, and renewable energy products. Demand from emerging markets and Europe offset the impact of US tariffs.
• Diversification of Trade Partners: China strategically expanded trade ties with ASEAN nations, Africa, and Latin America, reducing reliance on the US market.
• Domestic Policy Support: Beijing’s stimulus measures, including tax rebates for exporters and subsidies for high-tech industries, bolstered competitiveness.
• Currency Management: The yuan’s relative stability against major currencies helped maintain price competitiveness in global markets.

Impact of US Tariffs

Despite tariffs targeting Chinese goods, exporters found ways to mitigate the impact:

• Supply Chain Adjustments: Many firms shifted production bases to neighboring countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, re-routing exports to bypass tariff barriers.
• Product Innovation: Chinese companies invested heavily in R&D, creating higher-value products less sensitive to tariff costs.
• Resilient Consumer Demand: Global appetite for affordable Chinese goods remained strong, particularly in electronics and manufacturing inputs.

Global Implications

China’s record surplus has significant implications for the global economy:

• Trade Tensions: The widening surplus may intensify trade disputes with the US and other nations concerned about imbalances.
• Currency Markets: A strong surplus supports the yuan, influencing global currency flows.
• Supply Chain Dynamics: China’s dominance in manufacturing continues to shape global supply chains, even amid diversification efforts.

Outlook Ahead

Analysts expect China’s trade surplus to remain strong in 2026, though challenges such as geopolitical tensions, energy costs, and potential new tariffs could create volatility. Nevertheless, China’s ability to adapt and innovate suggests that its export sector will continue to thrive.

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Conclusion: China’s historic $1.2 trillion trade surplus highlights its resilience in the face of global challenges and tariff pressures. While tensions with the US may persist, China’s diversified trade strategies and strong industrial base position it as a dominant force in global commerce. For investors, understanding these shifts is crucial, and expert guidance from trusted analysts like Eqwires can provide the edge needed to succeed in today’s dynamic financial landscape.

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