Author: Eqwires

Global brokerage firm Nomura has released its latest projections for the Indian equity markets, suggesting that the Nifty 50 could potentially cross the 29,000 mark by 2026. This forecast comes at a time when India’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by strong GDP growth, robust corporate earnings, and steady domestic demand.

Nomura’s Key Expectations

Nomura’s analysis highlights several factors that could drive the Nifty higher over the next year:

• Economic Growth: India’s GDP growth of 8.2% in Q2 2025 has reinforced confidence in the country’s long-term trajectory.
• Corporate Earnings: Earnings momentum across sectors such as banking, IT, auto, and infrastructure is expected to remain strong.
• Domestic Liquidity: Rising retail participation and consistent inflows from domestic institutional investors provide a cushion against foreign outflows.
• Policy Support: Government reforms, tax rationalization, and infrastructure spending are expected to sustain growth.
• Global Positioning: India’s relative stability compared to other emerging markets makes it an attractive investment destination.

Nomura believes that while short-term volatility may persist due to currency pressures and global uncertainties, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, paving the way for Nifty to scale new highs.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the optimistic forecast, Nomura cautions that certain risks could delay or moderate the rally:

• Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Outflows: Continued selling by overseas investors could weigh on sentiment.
• Currency Weakness: The rupee’s record low against the dollar raises concerns about imported inflation.
• Global Uncertainty: US Federal Reserve policy, energy prices, and geopolitical tensions remain key external risks.
• Profit-Booking: After record highs, markets may witness intermittent corrections.

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Conclusion

Nomura’s projection of Nifty crossing 29,000 by 2026 reflects confidence in India’s economic fundamentals and market resilience. While risks remain, the combination of strong domestic demand, corporate earnings growth, and policy support provides a solid foundation for long-term investors. For those looking to capitalize on this potential, disciplined strategies and professional research will be essential to navigate volatility and maximize returns.

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The Indian rupee fell to a fresh record low against the US dollar on December 2, 2025, as persistent foreign outflows and mounting trade-related pressures weighed heavily on the currency. The decline underscores the challenges facing India’s financial markets despite strong domestic fundamentals such as robust GDP growth.

Currency Market Overview

The rupee’s weakness was driven by a combination of factors:

• Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Outflows: Continued selling by overseas investors has put pressure on both equities and the currency.
• Trade Stress: Rising import bills, particularly in energy and commodities, have widened the trade deficit.
• Global Dollar Strength: The US dollar has remained firm amid expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
• Domestic Sentiment: While India’s growth outlook remains strong, the currency’s slide has created caution among traders and investors.

By the end of the trading session, the rupee touched a new all-time low against the dollar, raising concerns about imported inflation and its potential impact on corporate earnings.

Impact on Markets

Equity markets mirrored the currency’s weakness, with banking and finance stocks under pressure due to fears of rising costs of foreign borrowing. Export-oriented sectors such as IT and pharmaceuticals, however, found partial support as a weaker rupee improves competitiveness abroad.

Bond yields also edged higher, reflecting investor concerns about inflationary risks and the possibility of tighter monetary conditions if the currency continues to depreciate.

Broader Economic Context

India’s economy has shown resilience, with GDP growth at 8.2% in Q2 and GST collections holding steady at ₹1.70 lakh crore in November. However, external factors such as global trade stress, energy prices, and capital outflows remain key challenges. Policymakers are expected to closely monitor the rupee’s trajectory, especially ahead of the upcoming RBI meeting, where monetary policy decisions could influence sentiment further.

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Conclusion

The rupee’s record low against the dollar highlights the vulnerability of emerging markets to global capital flows and trade imbalances. While India’s domestic growth remains strong, external pressures continue to shape investor sentiment. For market participants, the focus should remain on disciplined strategies, diversification, and professional research to navigate the volatility ahead.

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India’s gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection for November 2025 stood at ₹1.70 lakh crore, marking a modest year-on-year increase despite the impact of sweeping tax cuts announced earlier in the year. This performance highlights the resilience of India’s indirect tax system and the underlying strength of consumption and compliance trends.

GST Performance Overview

The November collection reflects a steady trajectory in tax revenues, even as the government implemented rate rationalizations across multiple sectors to boost demand. The rise in collections suggests that higher compliance, digital monitoring, and widening of the tax base have offset the revenue impact of tax reductions.

• Year-on-Year Growth: Collections were slightly higher compared to November 2024, indicating sustained economic activity.
• Sectoral Contribution: Manufacturing, services, and retail trade continued to be major contributors, while real estate and construction showed incremental gains.
• Compliance Improvements: Enhanced e-invoicing and stricter anti-evasion measures helped maintain revenue buoyancy.

Impact of Tax Cuts

Earlier in 2025, the government introduced sweeping tax cuts aimed at stimulating consumption and easing the burden on businesses. While there were concerns about potential revenue shortfalls, November’s GST figures demonstrate that the broader economy has absorbed these changes effectively. Increased consumer spending, particularly in festive months, has supported collections.

Economic Context

The GST performance comes against the backdrop of India’s strong GDP growth of 8.2% in Q2, which has reinforced confidence in the country’s economic trajectory. However, challenges remain in the form of global uncertainties, currency pressures, and FII outflows that continue to influence overall market sentiment.

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Conclusion

India’s November GST collection of ₹1.70 lakh crore underscores the robustness of the tax system and the resilience of the economy despite policy changes. The figures highlight how compliance measures and consumption growth have balanced the impact of tax cuts. For businesses and investors, this stability in revenue collection is a positive signal, reinforcing confidence in India’s fiscal outlook.

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The first trading session of December began on a strong note, with the Sensex and Nifty scaling fresh lifetime highs during early trade. The Sensex touched 86,159 while the Nifty crossed 26,325, buoyed by optimism around India’s robust GDP growth of 8.2% in Q2. However, the rally proved short-lived as selling pressure intensified later in the day.

By market close, the Nifty 50 fell 150 points to 26,175, while the Sensex dropped 531 points to 85,625. The rupee’s slide to a new all-time low against the US dollar and continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows weighed heavily on sentiment. Additionally, fading hopes of an RBI rate cut added to the cautious mood.

Top Gainers

• Wockhardt: Pharma stocks surged as investors bet on defensive sectors amid currency volatility.
• JM Financial: Strong institutional activity and optimism in financial services pushed the stock higher.
• TVS Motor: Auto sales data supported gains, with two-wheeler demand showing resilience.
• Hindustan Copper: Commodity-linked stocks benefited from global supply concerns.
• Paytm: The fintech major rebounded on expectations of improved transaction volumes during the festive season.

Top Losers

• ITC: Profit-booking dragged the FMCG heavyweight lower.
• Titan: Weak consumer sentiment in discretionary spending impacted the stock.
• TCS: IT stocks faced pressure amid global uncertainty and cautious outlook on US tech spending.
• Asian Paints: Rising input costs and muted demand weighed on performance.
• Max Healthcare, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma: These names also featured among the session’s notable losers.

Key Drivers of Market Movement

1. Currency Pressure: The rupee’s record low against the dollar created headwinds for equities.
2. FII Selling: Persistent foreign investor outflows capped gains despite strong domestic fundamentals.
3. Global Cues: Mixed signals from Asia-Pacific markets and uncertainty around US Federal Reserve policy added volatility.
4. Profit-Booking: After record highs, traders locked in gains, leading to a sharp reversal.

For investors navigating such volatile sessions, Eqwires stands out as the Best SEBI-Registered Research Analyst in India. Recognized as the Best SEBI-Registered Eqwires Research Analyst, the firm provides expert guidance on equity and derivatives. Known as the Best Options Trade Provider, Eqwires delivers precision strategies tailored to market conditions. With the Best Investment Strategies by Eqwires Research Analyst, clients gain a competitive edge in both short-term trading and long-term investing. As the Best SEBI-Registered Company in India and the Best Stock Market Service Provider in India, Eqwires ensures investors receive trusted, professional, and result-oriented research support.

Conclusion: December 1 highlighted the dual nature of markets — strong fundamentals like GDP growth can lift indices to record highs, but external pressures such as currency weakness and FII selling can quickly reverse momentum. Investors should remain cautious, diversify portfolios, and rely on professional research to navigate such volatility.

Eqwires Research Analyst

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info@eqwires.com

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Call: +91 9624421555 / +91 9624461555

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The benchmark Indian stock market indices closed flat on Friday, 28 November 2025, as investors booked profits at higher levels ahead of the Q2 GDP data release and amid mixed global cues. According to NSE data, the Nifty 50 index slipped 0.05% to 26,202.95 points, compared to 26,215.55 points at the previous close.

Data from the BSE showed that the Sensex ended 0.02% lower at 85,706.67 points, against 85,720.38 points in the prior session. Despite this muted finish, both indices recorded their third consecutive week of gains, rising nearly 50 basis points, though investors remained cautious heading into the weekend.

Stock Market Outlook

Analysts at Bajaj Broking Research noted that the Nifty 50 formed a small-bodied candle with shadows, reflecting stock-specific action near all-time highs. They expect the index to maintain a positive bias, potentially moving towards the 26,500 level in the coming sessions.

“Immediate support lies at the breakout area of 26,000, while short-term support is positioned in the 25,800–25,700 zone. This range aligns with the confluence of the 20-day EMAs, the lower band of the two-month rising channel, and the lows of the past two weeks. Sustaining above these levels will keep the bias positive,” the brokerage said.

On the Bank Nifty front, analysts anticipate continued momentum, with the index likely to advance towards the 60,400 mark in the near term.

Top 5 Weekly Gainers

1. JSW Holding
   • Closed 2.26% higher at ₹20,238.15 versus ₹19,790.90 in the previous session.
   • Gained over 16% in the last five trading sessions.
   • Up 25.88% year-to-date in 2025.
   • Delivered 487% returns over five years and 46% in the past year.
2. Olatech Solutions
   • Ended 3.56% higher at ₹286 compared to ₹276.75 previously.
   • Surged more than 54% in the past five days.
   • Down 38.92% year-to-date and 14.75% over the past year.
   • Since listing in 2022, shares have returned over 749%.
3. M P K Steels
   • Closed 9.68% higher at ₹127.82 versus ₹116.54 earlier.
   • Delivered 52% returns in the last five sessions.
   • Gained 64% over the past month.
4. Best Agrolife
   • Ended 3.12% higher at ₹401.30 compared to ₹389.15 previously.
   • Rose more than 33% in the last five sessions and 20% in the past month.
   • Down 35.39% year-to-date and 35.07% over the past year.
5. Eraaya Lifespaces
   • Closed 5% higher at ₹30.67 versus ₹29.21 in the prior session.
   • Delivered 27% returns in the last five sessions.
   • Lost 1.16% over the past month.
   • Down 73.51% year-to-date and 83.81% over the past year.

In volatile times, investors need trusted guidance to navigate opportunities and risks. Eqwires stands out as the Best SEBI-Registered Research Analyst in India, offering deep insights and actionable strategies. Recognized as the Best SEBI-Registered Eqwires Research Analyst, the firm provides tailored solutions for traders and long-term investors alike. As the Best Options Trade Provider, Eqwires helps clients capitalize on derivatives opportunities, while the Best Investment Strategies by Eqwires Research Analyst ensure disciplined wealth creation. With its reputation as the Best SEBI-Registered Company in India and the Best Stock Market Service Provider in India, Eqwires continues to set benchmarks in research, advisory, and investor support.

Summary

While benchmark indices ended flat on Friday, select stocks delivered exceptional weekly gains, with some surging more than 50% in just five sessions. The divergence between cautious index performance and sharp stock-specific rallies highlights the importance of selective investing and momentum trading in the current market environment.

Eqwires Research Analyst

Top-notch SEBI registered research analyst

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info@eqwires.com

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Call: +91 9624421555 / +91 9624461555

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