The Indian renewable energy sector faced a turbulent session on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, as shares of leading solar manufacturers suffered a dramatic sell-off. The primary catalyst for this downturn was a sudden and significant policy shift from the United States, where the Department of Commerce announced preliminary countervailing duties (CVD) of approximately 126 percent on solar cells and modules imported from India. This aggressive trade measure aims to counter what Washington describes as unfair government subsidies that allow Indian exporters to undercut domestic American producers.
Market Reaction: Solar Stocks in Freefall
Following the news, Waaree Energies, India’s largest solar module manufacturer, saw its stock price crash by nearly 15 percent in early trade, hitting an intraday low of 2,571.45 INR before stabilizing slightly. Premier Energies followed a similar trajectory, plunging 10 percent to hit its lower circuit at 699.35 INR. Other prominent players in the sector, including Vikram Solar and Adani Green, also registered significant losses ranging from 5 percent to 8 percent.
The sell-off reflects deep-seated investor anxiety regarding the future of Indian solar exports to the US, which has recently emerged as a critical revenue driver. In 2024, solar imports from India to the US were valued at nearly 793 million USD—a staggering nine-fold increase from 2022 levels. The new 125.87 percent duty essentially threatens to price Indian-made solar products out of the American market.
Expert Analysis: Diverging Impacts and Strategic Shifts
Market analysts and industry experts are currently divided on the long-term ramifications for these companies, noting that the impact depends heavily on individual “export exposure” and localized manufacturing strategies.
Waaree Energies: The US On-Shoring Strategy
Despite having the highest export exposure—with roughly one-third of its revenue tied to international markets—Waaree Energies management remains optimistic. CFO Abhishek Pareek stated that the company’s expanding US manufacturing footprint acts as a natural insulator. Waaree currently operates a 1.6 GW facility in the US and is on track to expand its local capacity to 4.2 GW by the end of 2026. This “on-shoring” strategy allows them to fulfill US orders locally, bypassing the steep import duties entirely.
Premier Energies: Sentiment vs. Fundamentals
Interestingly, experts point out that Premier Energies has negligible direct export exposure to the US, with its order book being predominantly domestic. Analysts suggest that the 10 percent plunge in its stock price was driven more by “spillover sentiment” and sector-wide panic rather than a direct threat to its bottom line. For long-term investors, this decoupling of stock price from fundamentals may present a unique entry point once the initial market volatility subsides.
The Broader Trade Context
The US action is part of a wider investigation that also targets Indonesia and Laos, which together with India accounted for over 57 percent of US solar module imports in the first half of 2025. This move coincides with the Trump administration’s broader trade agenda, which recently replaced struck-down reciprocal tariffs with a new 10 percent to 15 percent universal tariff framework.
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Outlook: What Happens Next?
The Department of Commerce is expected to issue a final determination by July 2026. However, a separate decision regarding “anti-dumping” duties is due as early as next month. If the US finds that Indian manufacturers were selling products below production costs, additional penalties could be levied, further complicating the export landscape.
While the export hurdle is significant, experts highlight that India’s domestic solar demand remains robust, with an estimated annual requirement of 50-60 GW through 2030. Companies that can successfully pivot to serve the massive domestic appetite or successfully manufacture within US borders are likely to emerge as the long-term victors in this shifting global trade war.
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