Month: October 2025

The World Bank has revised India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26 upward to 6.5 percent, citing resilient domestic demand, a recovery in rural consumption, and the positive impact of tax reforms. This marks a notable upgrade from its previous estimate of 6.3 percent. However, the global institution also cautioned that rising trade barriers, particularly steep tariffs imposed by the United States, could pose risks to India’s export performance in FY27.

Key Highlights from the World Bank’s South Asia Development Update

• India’s FY26 growth is now projected at 6.5 percent, supported by strong consumption, improved agricultural output, and rising rural wages.
• The FY27 forecast has been trimmed to 6.3 percent due to anticipated export challenges stemming from high US tariffs.
• India recorded a five-quarter high GDP growth of 7.8 percent in Q1 FY26, driven by public investment and resilient private consumption.
• GST reforms, including simplification of tax brackets and improved compliance, are expected to support economic activity.
• The US has imposed a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods, among the highest globally, impacting nearly 2 percent of India’s GDP through export channels.

South Asia Outlook

South Asia remains the fastest-growing region among emerging markets, but growth is expected to moderate from 6.6 percent in 2025 to 5.8 percent in 2026. The World Bank also highlighted the potential of Artificial Intelligence to boost productivity and employment across the region. India ranks high on the Government AI Readiness Index, positioning it to benefit from global digital transformation trends.

Investor Implications

The upgraded growth forecast reinforces confidence in India’s macroeconomic stability and consumption-driven sectors. However, the caution around FY27 suggests that export-oriented industries may face headwinds, making sectoral rotation and tactical positioning essential for investors and traders.

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The Indian equity market kicked off the second week of October with bullish momentum, as benchmark indices extended gains following strong technical breakouts. The Nifty 50 surged past key exponential moving averages (EMAs), signaling renewed strength and setting sights on the 25,200 mark. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty broke above a crucial trendline resistance at 56,000, reinforcing the bullish sentiment across financial heavyweights.

Nifty 50: Bullish Breakout Above EMAs

The Nifty 50 index closed near 24,900, decisively above its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, which had previously acted as resistance zones. This breakout is technically significant, as it suggests a shift in short- to medium-term momentum in favor of the bulls.

• Immediate resistance is seen at 25,200, a psychological and Fibonacci extension level.
• Support zones have now shifted higher to 24,600 and 24,400, aligning with the breakout levels and EMA clusters.
• Momentum indicators like RSI are trending above 60, indicating strength without being overbought.

The breakout is backed by strong sectoral rotation, with metals, financials, and auto stocks contributing to the rally. Traders are advised to watch for sustained volume confirmation and avoid chasing extended moves without pullbacks.

Bank Nifty: Trendline Breakout Signals Further Upside

Bank Nifty’s move above 56,000 marks a breakout from a descending trendline that had capped gains for several sessions. The index is now targeting 57,200–57,500 in the near term, with strong support at 55,300.

• Private banks like Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank led the charge, supported by positive Q2 business updates.
• PSU banks also showed resilience, with SBI and Bank of Baroda holding key levels.
• Options data suggests strong put writing at 55,500 and 56,000, indicating bullish positioning.

This breakout aligns with broader market optimism and improving macro cues, including easing crude prices and stable bond yields.

Sectoral Snapshot

• Metals: Tata Steel and JSW Steel posted strong gains, supported by global price recovery.
• Auto: Festive demand and upbeat sales data lifted Maruti, M&M, and Bajaj Auto.
• IT: Remained range-bound ahead of earnings season, with Infosys and TCS showing mixed signals.

FII-DII Flow and Market Breadth

Despite continued selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have remained consistent buyers, supporting market breadth. The advance-decline ratio remains positive, indicating broad-based participation.

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India’s financial sector saw renewed investor interest as leading institutions—HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Bajaj Finance—posted robust Q2 FY26 business updates. The upbeat performance across lending and deposit metrics triggered a rally in financial stocks, with Bajaj Finance surging over 3% and Kotak Mahindra Bank among the top gainers on the Nifty and Sensex indices.

HDFC Bank: Steady Growth in Loans and Deposits

HDFC Bank, India’s largest private lender, reported a 9% year-on-year (YoY) growth in loans, reaching ₹27.9 lakh crore as of September 30, 2025. Total advances under management rose to ₹28.6 lakh crore, up from ₹26.3 lakh crore a year ago.

Deposits also saw strong traction, growing 15.1% YoY to ₹27.1 lakh crore. The bank’s average CASA (Current Account and Savings Account) deposits increased 8.5% to ₹8.77 lakh crore, reflecting healthy retail participation and liquidity inflows.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Credit Book Expands Nearly 16%

Kotak Mahindra Bank posted a 15.8% YoY rise in advances, reaching ₹4.62 lakh crore in Q2 FY26, compared to ₹3.99 lakh crore in the same period last year. Deposits grew 14.6% to ₹5.28 lakh crore, indicating balanced growth across retail and corporate segments.

The bank’s performance signals strong credit demand and disciplined asset quality, reinforcing its position as a key player in India’s private banking space.

Bajaj Finance: Investor Optimism Drives Stock Higher

While Bajaj Finance’s detailed Q2 results are awaited, early business updates and sector momentum pushed the stock up by 3% in Monday’s trade. The company is expected to report strong growth in its consumer lending and digital finance segments, which have been key drivers of its valuation premium.

Sector Outlook: Financials Regain Momentum

The Q2 FY26 updates from top banks and NBFCs reflect a broader recovery in credit demand, improved liquidity, and stable macroeconomic conditions. Analysts expect continued traction in retail loans, SME financing, and housing credit, especially ahead of the festive season.

With the RBI maintaining a supportive stance and inflation largely under control, financial stocks are well-positioned for further upside—provided asset quality remains stable and deposit growth keeps pace with lending.

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India’s foreign exchange reserves witnessed a notable decline of $2.334 billion during the week ending September 26, 2025, settling at $700.236 billion, according to the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This marks the second consecutive weekly drop, following a $396 million dip in the previous reporting period.

Breakdown of Reserve Components

The fall in reserves was primarily driven by a sharp decline in foreign currency assets (FCAs), which dropped by $4.393 billion to $581.757 billion. FCAs represent the largest component of India’s forex reserves and are influenced by fluctuations in the value of non-dollar currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen held by the RBI.

Interestingly, gold reserves saw a significant increase of $2.238 billion, rising to $95.017 billion. This uptick reflects both valuation gains and strategic accumulation amid global economic uncertainties.

Other components also registered minor declines:

• Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) fell by $90 million to $18.789 billion.
• India’s reserve position with the IMF decreased by $89 million to $4.673 billion.

Implications for the Economy

The dip in forex reserves comes at a time when global markets are grappling with heightened volatility, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations. While India’s overall reserve position remains robust—still above the $700 billion mark—the decline in FCAs suggests pressure from currency revaluation and possible dollar outflows.

Economists note that the increase in gold reserves may serve as a hedge against currency depreciation and inflation risks. The RBI’s active management of the reserve mix reflects its strategy to maintain external stability while navigating global headwinds.

Market Reaction and Outlook

Despite the decline in reserves, the Indian equity markets have remained resilient, buoyed by strong domestic demand, festive season momentum, and supportive monetary policy. The RBI’s recent decision to maintain interest rates and introduce capital market reforms has helped sustain investor confidence.

Looking ahead, analysts expect the RBI to continue its calibrated approach to reserve management, balancing intervention with macroeconomic stability.

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In a strong show of institutional confidence, Tata Capital’s ₹15,512 crore initial public offering (IPO) has attracted a stellar anchor book, with Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) emerging as the largest investor. The anchor round, which raised ₹4,642 crore ahead of the IPO opening, saw participation from 135 domestic and global funds, underscoring the market’s bullish sentiment toward the Tata Group’s financial services arm.

LIC Tops the Anchor Book

LIC secured 15.08% of the anchor portion, investing ₹700 crore at ₹326 per share. This dominant allocation reflects the insurer’s continued faith in the Tata brand and its diversified financial services portfolio. LIC’s participation also signals long-term institutional support, often viewed as a stabilizing force in large IPOs.

Other Major Investors in the Anchor Round

The anchor book featured a mix of mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, and foreign institutional investors. Key participants included:

• Amansa Holdings and Nomura India Investment Fund Mother Fund: Each secured 3.77% of the anchor book
• Morgan Stanley Investment Funds Asia Opportunity Fund: 3.15%
• Nippon India Large Cap Fund: 2.69%
• Motilal Oswal Large Cap Fund: 2.16%
• HDFC Large Cap Fund: 1.89%
• DSP ELSS Tax Saver Fund: 1.52%
• Aditya Birla Sun Life Banking and Financial Services Fund: 1.4%
• Goldman Sachs India Equity Portfolio: 1.12%
• ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund: 1.26%
• Whiteoak Capital Special Opportunities Fund: 0.15%

This diverse participation highlights Tata Capital’s broad appeal across geographies and investment styles.

IPO Details and Market Expectations

The IPO comprises a fresh issue of 21 crore equity shares and an offer for sale (OFS) of 26.58 crore shares. The price band is set between ₹310 and ₹326 per share, valuing the company at approximately ₹1.38 lakh crore at the upper end. Subscription opens from October 6 to 8, with Tata Capital expected to debut on the bourses on October 13.

Tata Capital’s strong anchor book is seen as a precursor to robust retail and institutional demand. Analysts cite its diversified lending portfolio—spanning retail, SME, and housing finance—and improving profitability as key drivers of investor interest.

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