Month: September 2025

The Indian equity markets wrapped up the week on a strong note, with the Nifty 50 climbing above the 25,100 mark and the Sensex rising by 356 points. This marks the biggest weekly gain in nearly three months, driven by a mix of global optimism, domestic resilience, and sectoral momentum.

Market Snapshot

• Nifty 50: Closed at 25,119.25, up 113.75 points
• Sensex: Ended at 81,938.86, up 397.16 points
• India VIX: Dropped 1.76% to 10.18, indicating low volatility
• Derivatives Action: Strong put writing at 25,000 strike; heavy call open interest at 25,500 suggests bullish bias with resistance ahead

This rally marks eight consecutive sessions of gains for benchmark indices, supported by robust buying in financial services, IT, and mid-cap stocks. The Nifty Financial Services index alone rose nearly 3% over the week, with Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, and Shriram Finance leading the charge.

What’s Fueling the Rally?

Global Tailwinds

Softer U.S. jobs data and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have made emerging markets like India more attractive to foreign investors. Asian markets, including Japan and South Korea, hit record highs on optimism around AI-driven earnings and easing monetary conditions.

India–U.S. Trade Optimism

Renewed diplomatic engagement between India and the U.S. has lifted sentiment, especially in export-driven sectors like IT and textiles. Anticipation of tariff rollbacks and GST rationalization is boosting investor confidence.

Technical Breakouts

Nifty has crossed key resistance levels, with analysts now eyeing 25,200 to 25,400 as the next upside targets. Momentum indicators show bullish crossovers, and the Put-Call Ratio has climbed to 1.15, reinforcing the positive undertone.

Sector Highlights

• IT Stocks: Infosys gained 2% following its ₹18,000 crore buyback announcement, leading gains in the tech space.
• Financial Services: Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, and LIC Housing Finance posted strong gains amid rising credit demand and stable macro indicators.
• Mid & Small Caps: Continued to outperform, reflecting strong domestic participation and retail investor confidence.

Strategic Takeaways for Traders

This rally presents multiple opportunities for both short-term and positional traders:

• BTST and intraday setups in trending financial and IT stocks
• Options strategies around Nifty’s breakout levels and sector rotation
• Swing trades in mid-cap names with strong volume and momentum

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Infosys, India’s second-largest IT services company, has announced a massive ₹18,000-crore share buyback, offering ₹1,800 per share—a 19 percent premium over its recent market price of ₹1,512. This move directly affects over 26 lakh shareholders and signals strategic capital deployment during a period of global tech uncertainty.

Key Highlights of the Buyback

• Buyback Size: ₹18,000 crore
• Buyback Price: ₹1,800 per share
• Premium Offered: Approximately 19 percent
• Shares to be Bought Back: 10 crore equity shares
• Route: Tender offer
• Equity Impact: 2.41 percent of total paid-up capital

This is Infosys’ fifth buyback since 2017 and its first via the tender route since 2019. Unlike open market repurchases, the tender offer ensures price certainty and proportionate acceptance, making it more inclusive for retail investors.

Why Infosys Is Buying Back Shares Now

Infosys stock has been under pressure, down nearly 20 percent year-to-date due to weak global IT demand and cautious client spending. The buyback is seen as a vote of confidence from management, aiming to:

• Boost earnings per share (EPS)
• Improve return on equity (ROE)
• Provide tax-efficient returns compared to dividends
• Support the stock price in the near term

Brokerages have responded positively, with target prices ranging from ₹1,700 to ₹1,880. The move aligns with Infosys’ capital allocation policy of returning 85 percent of free cash flow to shareholders between FY25 and FY29.

Impact on Shareholders

Retail investors stand to benefit from:

• Exiting at a premium during a weak market phase
• Participating in a low-risk arbitrage
• Potential post-buyback rally and EPS accretion

Acceptance ratio will depend on the number of shares tendered. Historically, Infosys buybacks have led to short-term price stability, though long-term growth depends on how the company adapts to AI-led disruption and global tech shifts.

Strategic Takeaways for Traders and Investors

This buyback is more than a corporate action—it’s a signal. Infosys holds over ₹40,000 crore in cash reserves and is choosing to reward shareholders rather than pursue aggressive capex. For traders and investors, this opens up several strategic angles:

• Short-term arbitrage for Infosys holders
• Options trading opportunities around buyback volatility
• Sector rotation strategies as IT stabilizes
• Fundamental re-entry for long-term portfolios

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India’s benchmark Nifty 50 index extended its rally for the seventh consecutive session on Thursday, notching its longest winning streak in over four months. The index closed at 25,005.5, up 0.13%, while the BSE Sensex added 0.15% to settle at 81,548.73. The sustained momentum was fueled by growing optimism around renewed US-India trade negotiations, domestic tax reforms, and expectations of a US rate cut—all of which helped offset profit-booking in select sectors like IT.

What’s Driving the Rally

The recent surge in Indian equities is being attributed to a confluence of supportive factors:

• US-India Trade Talks: Comments from US President Donald Trump about upcoming discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi have sparked hopes of easing trade tensions. This comes after the US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods last month, which had initially triggered foreign outflows and weakened the rupee.
• Domestic Tax Cuts: Recent reductions in consumption-related taxes have boosted investor sentiment, especially in consumer-facing sectors.
• Rate Cut Expectations: With US inflation data showing signs of cooling, markets are pricing in a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could improve global liquidity and benefit emerging markets like India.
• Strong Institutional Support: Domestic mutual funds and institutional investors have continued to pump money into equities, providing a cushion against global volatility.

Sectoral Snapshot

Out of the 16 major sectors, 13 logged gains, signaling broad-based optimism:

• Oil & Gas: GAIL, BPCL, HPCL, and Indian Oil led the charge, with the sector rising 1.1% on positive brokerage commentary and expectations of tariff hikes.
• Energy: Up 0.9%, driven by strength in public sector undertakings and infrastructure-linked plays.
• IT: The index fell 0.5%, snapping a two-day rally. Infosys dropped 1.5% ahead of its board meeting to consider a share buyback.
• Mid & Small Caps: Traded flat, with selective gains in pharma and logistics. Stocks like Aurobindo Pharma and Jupiter Wagons posted strong moves on deal-related news.

Currency Pressure

Despite the equity market’s strength, the Indian rupee hit a record low of ₹88.44 against the US dollar. The depreciation reflects sustained foreign outflows and the impact of punitive US tariffs. Analysts warn that currency volatility could remain a headwind if trade negotiations stall.

Market Outlook

While the Nifty and Sensex have rebounded 1.7% over the past seven sessions, they remain about 5% below their record highs set in September 2024. Analysts believe the next leg of the rally will depend on:

• Progress in US-India trade talks
• Clarity on domestic policy reforms (especially GST)
• Corporate earnings growth in H2 FY26
• Stability in global interest rates

Support for Nifty is seen near 24,930, with resistance around 25,400. Traders are advised to watch for sustained moves above 25,012 to confirm bullish continuation.

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In a jaw-dropping display of investor confidence, Oracle Corporation added $244 billion to its market capitalization in a single trading session—an unprecedented surge that equals the combined market value of India’s top three IT giants: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, and HCL Technologies. The rally was fueled by Oracle’s aggressive forecast for AI-driven cloud infrastructure growth, signaling a seismic shift in global tech valuations.

Oracle’s AI Cloud Vision: A $144 Billion Bet on the Future

Oracle’s stock soared 36% after CEO Safra Catz unveiled a roadmap projecting cloud infrastructure revenue to reach $144 billion by fiscal 2030, up from just $10.3 billion in FY25. This bullish outlook was backed by multi-billion-dollar contracts with AI leaders including OpenAI, Meta, xAI, and Nvidia.

The company’s remaining performance obligations (RPO)—a key metric for future revenue—jumped 359% to $455 billion, with expectations to cross $500 billion soon. Oracle’s transformation from a legacy database provider to a dominant AI infrastructure player has positioned it alongside Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud.

Market Impact: Oracle’s Rally Redefines Tech Benchmarks

The $244 billion surge in Oracle’s market cap is equivalent to the combined valuation of India’s IT trinity:

• TCS: ₹13.5 lakh crore (~$162 billion)
• Infosys: ₹6.3 lakh crore (~$76 billion)
• HCL Tech: ₹3.0 lakh crore (~$36 billion)

Together, these firms represent the backbone of India’s IT exports and global outsourcing strength. Yet Oracle’s single-day rally matched their combined value, underscoring the scale of investor optimism around AI infrastructure.

Even Reliance Industries, India’s most valued company at $212 billion, appeared smaller in comparison to Oracle’s overnight leap.

Larry Ellison’s Wealth Surge

Oracle’s co-founder and chairman Larry Ellison, who owns over 40% of the company, saw his net worth jump by $88.5 billion in a single day. He briefly overtook Elon Musk as the world’s richest person, with Bloomberg estimating his wealth at $383 billion.

This rally was the largest percentage gain for Oracle since 1992 and signals a broader revaluation of companies enabling the AI revolution.

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In a significant vote of confidence for the Indian economy, Fitch Ratings has upgraded India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 6.9%, up from its previous estimate of 6.5%. The revision follows stronger-than-expected momentum in the services sector, resilient domestic consumption, and robust industrial output. However, the agency also flagged rising trade tensions with the United States as a potential risk to sustained growth.

Strong Start to FY26: Services and Manufacturing Drive Expansion

India’s economy expanded by 7.8% in the first quarter of FY26 (April–June), marking its fastest pace in five quarters. This acceleration was fueled by a surge in services activity and a sharp rise in manufacturing output. The August services PMI climbed to 62.9—its highest since June 2010—while the manufacturing PMI hit 59.3, a 17-year high. These indicators reflect strong supply-demand alignment and improving business sentiment across sectors.

Fitch noted that the wedge between nominal and real GDP growth narrowed significantly, with GDP deflator growth at its lowest since Q3 FY19. This suggests that inflationary distortions are minimal, allowing real growth figures to more accurately reflect economic activity.

Domestic Demand Remains the Key Driver

Fitch emphasized that domestic demand will continue to be the primary engine of growth. Strong real income dynamics, supported by subdued inflation and looser financial conditions, are expected to sustain consumer spending and investment. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects FY26 growth at 6.5%, citing government-led capital expenditure and a nascent recovery in rural demand.

Retail inflation fell to 1.55% in July, its lowest level in eight years, driven by a 1.76% decline in food prices. Above-average monsoon rainfall and large stockpiles have helped keep food inflation in check. Fitch expects overall inflation to remain subdued, forecasting a year-end rate of 3.2%.

Trade Tensions with the US: A Cloud on the Horizon

Despite the upbeat domestic outlook, Fitch warned that escalating trade tensions with the United States could dampen investor sentiment and disrupt capital flows. The US has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports, including a 25% penalty linked to purchases of Russian crude oil. While Fitch expects these levies to be negotiated down over time, the uncertainty surrounding trade relations poses a risk to business confidence and investment planning.

New Delhi has criticized the tariffs as punitive, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions and the broader impact on India’s export competitiveness. The Asian Development Bank has already trimmed its FY26 forecast to 6.5%, citing these trade frictions and policy uncertainty.

Growth Outlook Beyond FY26

While FY26 is expected to be strong, Fitch projects a gradual moderation in growth thereafter. The agency forecasts GDP growth of 6.3% in FY27 and 6.2% in FY28, as the economy operates slightly above its potential and global headwinds begin to weigh more heavily.

The RBI is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this year and maintain them through 2026, before beginning a tightening cycle in 2027. This policy stance is aimed at supporting growth while keeping inflation within the target range.

Eqwires: Your Strategic Partner in a Shifting Economic Landscape

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Call: +91 9624421555 / +91 9624461555

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