Sensex, Nifty Extend Winning Streak for Fourth Session as Auto, Oil & Gas Stocks Lead; Small and Midcaps Outperform

On August 19, 2025, Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty posted gains for the fourth consecutive trading session, buoyed by strong performances in auto, oil & gas, and FMCG sectors. The rally was broad-based, with midcap and smallcap indices outperforming their large-cap counterparts, reflecting renewed investor confidence in domestic growth stories. Easing volatility, supportive policy signals, and upbeat corporate developments contributed to the bullish sentiment.

At close, the Sensex rose 370.64 points (0.46%) to 81,644.39, while the Nifty gained 103.70 points (0.42%) to settle at 24,980.65.

Key Drivers of the Rally

  1. Auto Sector Surge
    • Auto stocks rallied up to 6%, led by Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and Ola Electric.
    • Fresh signals from New Delhi regarding rare earth magnet supply and tunnel boring machines—critical for EV and infrastructure sectors—boosted sentiment.
    • Nifty Auto index rose 1.32%, with expectations of GST rate rationalization further lifting demand prospects.
  2. Oil & Gas Strength
    • Nifty Oil & Gas index climbed 1.66%, driven by gains in Reliance Industries, Adani Enterprises, and ONGC.
    • Reliance Industries rose over 2% following Jio’s prepaid tariff revision, which analysts expect to improve revenue margins.
  3. Midcap and Smallcap Outperformance
    • Nifty Midcap 100 rose 1%, and Smallcap 100 gained 0.7%, outpacing headline indices.
    • Broader market participation was strong: 2,505 stocks advanced, 1,375 declined, and 159 remained unchanged.
    • Cotton-related companies like Welspun Living and Ambika Cotton Mills surged 1–8% after the government removed import duties on raw cotton till September 30.
  4. Volatility Eases
    • India VIX dropped over 4% to 11.79, indicating reduced market anxiety and a favorable environment for risk-taking.

Sectoral Performance Snapshot

SectorMovement (%)Highlights
Oil & Gas+1.66%Reliance, Adani Enterprises lead gains
Auto+1.32%EV optimism, GST reform hopes
Media+1.19%Broad-based buying
FMCG & Infra~+1.00%Consumption revival, infra push
Energy, Metals, IT+0.3–1.0%Steady gains across segments
Pharma–0.34%Only sector in red
PSU Banks+0.76%Strong institutional flows
Private Banks+0.39%Mixed performance

Top Gainers and Laggards on Nifty

  • Gainers: Tata Motors, Adani Ports, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Adani Enterprises, Reliance Industries
  • Laggards: Dr Reddy’s, Bajaj Finserv, Hindalco, Cipla, M&M

Technical Outlook and Resistance Levels

  • Nifty faces resistance at 25,013 (50-day SMA), with further hurdles at 25,096 and 25,156.
  • Upside momentum remains intact as long as the index holds above 24,850.
  • Analysts suggest a “buy-on-dips” strategy, with support pegged at 24,750–24,700 and stop-loss at 24,600.

Policy and Macro Signals Supporting Sentiment

  • Government signals on next-generation GST reforms have lifted market mood.
  • Removal of cotton import duties supports textile and export-oriented firms.
  • China’s diplomatic assurance on rare earth supply has eased concerns for auto and electronics sectors.
  • Despite strained India–US ties, India continues to tactically engage with China and Russia, reinforcing its strategic autonomy.

Conclusion: Broader Participation Signals Market Confidence

The fourth straight day of gains in Indian equities reflects a confluence of sectoral strength, policy optimism, and easing volatility. With midcaps and smallcaps outperforming, investors are increasingly betting on domestic growth stories and reform-led momentum. While technical resistance near 25,000 may trigger some consolidation, the underlying tone remains bullish—especially if earnings revival and policy clarity continue to support sentiment.

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India Gains Strategic Breathing Room as China Lifts Export Curbs on Rare Earths and Fertilisers

Introduction: A Diplomatic Breakthrough with Economic Ripples

In a significant diplomatic and economic development, China has officially lifted its export restrictions on three critical commodities to India—rare earth minerals, fertilisers, and tunnel boring machines. The move, confirmed during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s two-day visit to New Delhi in August 2025, marks a turning point in bilateral relations that had been strained since the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020. For India, this decision offers immediate relief across agriculture, infrastructure, and high-tech manufacturing sectors, which had been grappling with supply bottlenecks and production delays.

Background: The Curbs That Crippled Key Sectors

China’s export restrictions, imposed earlier this year citing national security concerns, disrupted India’s access to:

  • Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP): A vital fertiliser for the Rabi season, with curbs causing shortages and price spikes for farmers.
  • Rare Earth Magnets and Minerals: Essential for electric vehicles, electronics, and defense applications. The auto and electronics industries flagged severe disruptions.
  • Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs): Crucial for metro, highway, and water infrastructure projects. Delays impacted timelines and budgets, especially for equipment sourced from China-based plants of foreign manufacturers.

These restrictions were seen as part of a broader geopolitical strategy amid ongoing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India responded by raising the issue in multiple diplomatic engagements, culminating in Wang Yi’s visit and the breakthrough announcement.

The Diplomatic Path to Resolution

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met Wang Yi twice in July 2025, laying the groundwork for confidence-building measures. The talks focused on:

  • Troop disengagement along the LAC: A prerequisite for restoring trust.
  • Trade normalization: India emphasized that economic cooperation should not be held hostage to border tensions.
  • Strategic parity: India pushed back against perceived U.S. favoritism toward China, especially in the context of recent American tariffs on Indian exports.

During the August visit, Wang Yi assured Jaishankar that China had already begun acting on India’s requests. Shipments of the restricted items have reportedly resumed, signaling a thaw in relations and a pragmatic shift in Beijing’s approach.

Sectoral Impact: Relief and Recalibration

  1. Agriculture
    • DAP shortages had threatened crop yields and farmer incomes.
    • With curbs lifted, fertiliser imports are expected to stabilize ahead of the winter sowing season.
    • The Ministry of Agriculture is revising procurement plans to ensure timely distribution.
  2. Automobile and Electronics
    • Rare earth magnets are indispensable for EV motors, smartphones, and defense-grade sensors.
    • Automakers like Bajaj Auto had cut production due to shortages.
    • The Ministry of Heavy Industries is now fast-tracking a ₹1,345 crore subsidy scheme to promote domestic manufacturing of rare earth components.
  3. Infrastructure
    • TBM delays had stalled metro expansions in Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Ahmedabad.
    • With shipments resuming, project timelines are being recalibrated.
    • The Ministry of Urban Development is expected to issue revised completion targets by September.

Strategic Implications: Beyond Trade

This development carries broader geopolitical significance:

  • India-China Reset: While border tensions remain unresolved, both sides appear committed to gradual normalization.
  • U.S.-India-China Triangle: The move comes amid rising U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and criticism of New Delhi’s ties with Russia. India has accused Washington of double standards, noting its softer stance on Beijing.
  • Supply Chain Diversification: India is accelerating efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese imports, including incentives for domestic rare earth mining and magnet production.

Conclusion: A Tactical Win, But Strategic Vigilance Required

China’s decision to lift export curbs is a welcome relief for India’s economy and a sign of improving diplomatic engagement. However, the episode underscores the vulnerability of critical supply chains to geopolitical shifts. India must now balance short-term gains with long-term resilience—by investing in domestic capabilities, diversifying import sources, and maintaining strategic autonomy in its foreign policy.

This breakthrough may not resolve all tensions, but it offers a moment of pragmatic cooperation in a region often defined by rivalry. For India, it’s a chance to regroup, recalibrate, and reinforce its economic foundations.

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War or Peace? Why Oil Markets Remain Largely Indifferent to the Ukraine Outcome

Introduction: A Conflict That Shook but Didn’t Break the Barrel

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, global oil markets have been on high alert. Initial fears of supply shocks, sanctions, and geopolitical instability sent crude prices soaring. But as we enter the latter half of 2025, the oil market’s reaction to the war—and even to the prospect of peace—has become surprisingly muted. Despite high-stakes diplomacy and shifting alliances, traders and analysts now agree: whether war continues or peace prevails, the impact on oil prices is likely to remain marginal.

The Geopolitical Theater: Talks, Tariffs, and Tensions

Recent developments have seen U.S. President Donald Trump push for a full peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, bypassing the previously favored ceasefire route. His meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and subsequent talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have sparked speculation about a potential resolution. Yet, oil prices barely flinched. Brent crude hovered around $66 per barrel, while WTI settled near $63.

Why the indifference? Because the market has already adapted.

  • Russian oil continues to flow—largely redirected to China and India despite Western sanctions
  • Secondary sanctions threats have been paused, reducing immediate supply disruption risks
  • OPEC output increases and weak global demand have added downward pressure on prices

Price Trends: From Shock to Stability

In the early days of the war, Brent crude surged past $120 per barrel. But by mid-2023, prices began to normalize. As of August 2025:

Crude TypePrice (Approx.)Trend
Brent$65.85/barrelSlight dip
WTI$62.80/barrelStable to bearish

Even the announcement of peace talks failed to spark volatility. Analysts now expect crude to remain range-bound unless a major supply disruption occurs.

Why the Market Has Moved On

  1. Sanctions Workarounds Russia’s pivot to Asian buyers has created a new trade equilibrium. India, for instance, now sources over 40 percent of its crude from Russia, up from less than 1 percent pre-war.
  2. Discounted Russian Crude Urals crude trades at $25–30 below Brent, making it attractive despite its higher sulfur content. Indian refiners have optimized blends to maintain margins.
  3. Refined Product Arbitrage Countries like India have profited by importing cheap Russian oil and exporting refined products to Europe, effectively bypassing sanctions.
  4. Muted Demand Outlook Global economic uncertainty, rising tariffs, and inflation fears have dampened oil demand projections. Even peace won’t reverse this trend overnight.

What Could Still Shake the Market

While the Ukraine outcome may not be a game-changer, other factors could still disrupt oil markets:

  • Escalation in the Middle East: Conflicts in Syria, Iran, or the Israeli-Palestinian region could affect supply routes
  • OPEC+ surprises: Unexpected production cuts or hikes could shift balances
  • U.S. policy shifts: If Trump reintroduces secondary sanctions or tariffs on Russian oil buyers, volatility could return

Conclusion: The Barrel Has Learned to Balance

The Ukraine war was once a seismic event for oil markets. But after three years of adaptation, rerouting, and recalibration, the market has built resilience. Whether peace is brokered or the conflict drags on, oil prices are unlikely to see dramatic swings—unless accompanied by broader geopolitical or economic shocks.

In short, war or peace in Ukraine is no longer the oil market’s compass. It’s just one of many variables in a complex global equation.

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