Sensex Climbs 304 Points, Nifty Closes Above 24,600 as Steady U.S. Inflation Fuels Global Rally

Indian equity markets rebounded sharply on August 13, 2025, with the BSE Sensex rising 304 points and the NSE Nifty closing above the 24,600 mark, driven by positive global cues and easing domestic inflation. The rally was broad-based, led by gains in auto, metal, and pharma stocks, as investors responded to steady U.S. inflation data and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Market Snapshot

IndexClosing LevelChange% Change
Sensex80,539.91+304.32 pts+0.38%
Nifty 5024,619.35+131.95 pts+0.54%
Nifty Midcap+0.63%
Nifty Smallcap+0.66%

During the session, the Sensex touched an intraday high of 80,683.74, while the Nifty peaked at 24,664.55.

Key Drivers of the Rally

1. U.S. Inflation Data

  • The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.7% in July, slightly below expectations.
  • This reinforced hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, boosting global investor sentiment.

2. India’s Retail Inflation

  • India’s CPI fell to an eight-year low of 1.55% in July, well below the RBI’s comfort zone.
  • Lower food prices and easing supply pressures contributed to the decline.
  • Analysts expect this to support discretionary spending and improve corporate margins.

3. Global Market Momentum

  • Asian indices like Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed higher.
  • European markets traded in the green, and U.S. indices hit record highs on August 12.

Sectoral Performance

SectorTrend
Auto+1.18%
Metal+1.26%
Pharma+1.73%
Realty+0.26%
PSU BanksMixed
Oil & GasSlight decline

All major sectoral indices ended in the green, with auto, metal, and pharma leading the gains.

Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers (Sensex & Nifty)

  • Bharat Electronics: +2.30%
  • Eternal (Zomato): +2.19%
  • Mahindra & Mahindra: +1.65%
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank: +1.56%
  • Tata Motors: +1.44%
  • Apollo Hospitals: +8.20%
  • Hindalco: +5.09%
  • Dr. Reddy’s Labs: +2.71%

Losers

  • Adani Ports: -0.72%
  • ITC: -0.52%
  • Titan: -0.43%
  • IndusInd Bank: -1.26%
  • Tech Mahindra: -0.35%

Expert Commentary

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, noted:

“Indian equities experienced broad-based optimism as CPI hit an eight-year low, boosting hopes for a revival in discretionary spending. Globally, sentiment improved on the extension of China’s tariff deadline and easing oil prices.”

Vaibhav Vidwani, Research Analyst at Bonanza Group, added:

“The market’s ability to recover decisively from recent lows demonstrates underlying resilience supported by strong domestic institutional flows and improving macroeconomic indicators.”

Outlook: Will the Rally Sustain?

Technical analysts suggest that the Nifty’s next resistance is at 24,700, and a decisive move above this level could trigger a rally toward 25,200. Support is seen at 24,337. While global risks remain—especially around trade tensions and geopolitical developments—India’s growth-inflation dynamics continue to favor a stable outlook for FY26.

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Ex-RBI Chief Duvvuri Subbarao Issues ₹7 Lakh Crore Tariff Warning for India: What It Means for the Economy

Duvvuri Subbarao, who served as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India during the 2008 global financial crisis, has issued a stark warning about the economic risks India faces from proposed U.S. tariffs and Chinese dumping. In a recent interview, Subbarao cautioned that these twin pressures could undermine India’s manufacturing competitiveness, slow GDP growth, and worsen the country’s jobless growth challenge.

The ₹7 Lakh Crore Threat: What’s Behind the Number?

Subbarao estimates that Donald Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Indian exports could impact nearly 2% of India’s GDP, or approximately ₹7,00,00,00,00,000 (₹7 lakh crore). The sectors most at risk include:

  • Textiles
  • Footwear
  • Gems and jewellery
  • Other labour-intensive industries

He warns that such tariffs would erode profit margins, divert export orders, lead to job losses, and force downsizing across manufacturing units.

Chinese Dumping: A Second Blow

In addition to U.S. tariffs, Subbarao flagged the risk of Chinese industrial overcapacity. With China facing its own trade barriers from the U.S., Chinese exporters may turn to India to offload surplus goods. This could flood Indian markets with cheap imports, hurting domestic manufacturers and further weakening India’s push to integrate into global value chains under the China+1 strategy.

Economic Impact: GDP, Jobs, and Inequality

Subbarao estimates that the combined effect of tariffs and dumping could slow India’s GDP growth by 20 to 50 basis points, depending on how well the country manages the shock. He also highlighted:

  • Regressive distributional effects: Lower-income workers in export-driven sectors would be hit hardest
  • Strain on formal job market: Manufacturing jobs may shrink, worsening India’s jobless growth trend
  • Investor sentiment: Remarks like Trump’s comparison of India to a “dead economy” could raise India’s risk premium and trigger portfolio reallocation

Policy Implications: What Should India Do?

Subbarao emphasized the need for structural reforms and targeted support to shield vulnerable sectors. He also noted that:

  • Fiscal policy may need to adjust if tariff-hit sectors require short-term relief
  • Monetary policy will remain data-dependent. If tariffs fuel inflation and weaken the rupee, interest rates may stay high. If growth slows sharply, rate cuts may be considered

Conclusion: A Wake-Up Call for India’s Trade Strategy

Subbarao’s warning is not just about numbers—it’s a call to action. With global liquidity tightening and geopolitical risks rising, India must:

  • Diversify export markets
  • Strengthen domestic manufacturing
  • Accelerate reforms to maintain macroeconomic stability

The ₹7 lakh crore figure is a reminder of how vulnerable India’s economy can be to external shocks—and how critical it is to prepare proactively.

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BDL Shares Surge 3% After Q1 PAT Soars 154% YoY — Should You Buy Now?

Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL), the state-owned defence PSU, saw its shares jump 3.2% to ₹1,534 on August 13, 2025, after reporting a stellar Q1FY26 performance. The company’s Profit After Tax (PAT) surged 154% year-on-year to ₹18.35 crore, up from ₹7.21 crore in Q1FY25, driven by strong operational momentum and easing supply chain constraints.

Q1FY26 Highlights

MetricQ1FY26Q1FY25YoY Change
PAT₹18.35 crore₹7.21 crore+154%
Revenue from Operations₹231.09 crore₹187.77 crore+23.07%
Total Income₹334.79 crore₹271.55 crore+23.29%
Total Expenses₹311.66 crore₹260.31 crore+19.72%

Despite rising costs, BDL delivered robust profit growth, reflecting improved execution and margin resilience.

What Are Brokerages Saying?

Nuvama: Buy | Target ₹2,250

  • Projects 51% revenue CAGR and 66% EPS CAGR over FY25–28
  • Operating margins expected to stay in the 23–23.5% range
  • Assigns 45x P/E multiple on FY27E EPS of ₹50.1
  • Notes easing import constraints and strong growth visibility

Motilal Oswal: Buy | Target ₹1,900

  • Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
  • Highlights BDL’s order book of ₹23,300 crore and prospect pipeline of ₹50,000 crore
  • Forecasts EBITDA margin improvement from 23.8% (FY26) to 25.5% (FY28)
  • Sees valuation at 39x FY27E EPS and 29x FY28E EPS

Should You Buy BDL Now?

Reasons to Consider Buying

  • Strong Q1 performance and margin expansion
  • Large order book and pipeline ensure revenue visibility
  • Easing supply chain issues post-global disruptions
  • Government push for defence indigenization and exports

Risks to Watch

  • High valuation multiples (39x–45x forward P/E)
  • Execution delays in defence contracts
  • Dependency on geopolitical factors for imports and exports

Verdict

BDL’s Q1 results signal strong operational recovery and long-term growth potential. With solid fundamentals, a robust order book, and favorable brokerage outlooks, the stock presents a compelling case for long-term investors. However, given its premium valuation, short-term investors may prefer to wait for a better entry point or technical confirmation.

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