Global Stock Markets Slide as Investors Brace for Crucial Week

Global stock markets witnessed a broad-based decline as investors exercised caution ahead of a pivotal week featuring central bank policy decisions, economic data releases, and major corporate earnings reports. With uncertainties around inflation, interest rates, and global economic stability, risk sentiment has noticeably weakened across regions.


Key Reasons Behind the Market Decline

1. Upcoming US Federal Reserve Decision
Investors are closely watching the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week. While the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, any hawkish commentary regarding future policy could unsettle markets.

2. Global Inflation and Economic Data
Inflation numbers from the United States, Eurozone, and major Asian economies are scheduled for release. Persistently high inflation could force central banks to maintain or even tighten policy stances.

3. Weakness in China’s Economy
China’s recovery remains fragile, with recent industrial output and property sector data reflecting ongoing challenges. This has put pressure on regional indices, particularly in Asia.

4. Corporate Earnings in Focus
Investors await quarterly results from global technology giants, banking majors, and energy companies. Any earnings disappointments could further weigh on sentiment.


Global Market Snapshot (as of July 29, 2025)

  • United States:
    • Dow Jones: -1.2%
    • S&P 500: -1.4%
    • Nasdaq: -1.8%
  • Europe:
    • FTSE 100: -0.9%
    • DAX: -1.3%
    • CAC 40: -1.1%
  • Asia:
    • Nikkei 225: -1.5%
    • Hang Seng: -2.1%
    • Sensex (India): -0.8%

Major Events This Week

DateEvent
July 30US Federal Reserve Policy Decision
July 31US Core PCE Inflation Data
July 31China Manufacturing and Services PMIs
August 1Eurozone GDP and CPI Inflation Numbers
August 2US Non-Farm Payrolls and Job Data

What Should Investors Do?

Short-Term Strategy:

  • Expect heightened volatility throughout the week.
  • Avoid taking large speculative positions before key data is out.
  • Consider using hedges for downside protection.

Long-Term Strategy:

  • Stay focused on fundamentally strong stocks and sectors with robust balance sheets.
  • Diversify across equity, fixed income, and global geographies.
  • Avoid panic selling and maintain a long-term investment view.

Safe Haven Assets:

  • Gold and US Treasuries are likely to remain in demand as uncertainty increases.

Expert Opinion

Market analysts suggest that this week could set the tone for the rest of the quarter. Investor positioning and sentiment are likely to shift significantly depending on the Fed’s stance, inflation trends, and corporate earnings commentary. It’s important to remain cautious and informed.


Conclusion

This is one of the most crucial weeks of the quarter for global markets. Central banks, inflation data, and corporate earnings will collectively determine the short-term trajectory of equities. Investors are advised to remain calm, manage risk effectively, and focus on quality investments.

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Bajaj Finance Shares Fall Over 5% After JPMorgan Downgrade; Analysts Flag Near-Term Stress

Bajaj Finance Ltd., one of India’s top non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), witnessed a sharp sell-off in today’s trade. The stock dropped over 5% intraday after global brokerage firm JPMorgan downgraded the stock and slashed its target price, citing asset quality concerns and slowing growth outlook in the near term.

This comes amid broader market volatility and pressure across the financial sector.


What Triggered the Fall?

  1. JPMorgan Downgrade
    The global brokerage downgraded Bajaj Finance to Underweight from Neutral and cut its price target significantly. It warned of potential stress in the company’s consumer lending portfolio, especially in discretionary segments.
  2. Valuation Concerns
    Bajaj Finance has been one of the most richly valued NBFCs. With high expectations built into the price, any hint of slowdown or risk to earnings is now triggering sharper corrections.
  3. Industry-Wide Pressure
    The broader financial sector is under pressure, with many NBFCs facing scrutiny over asset quality and rising competition from fintechs and smaller lenders.
  4. Pre-Result Nervousness
    With Q1 FY26 results around the corner, analysts fear that rising credit costs or margin pressures might impact profitability.

Key Brokerage Views

  • JPMorgan: Downgraded to Underweight citing concerns over personal loan stress and peaking growth in the digital consumer finance segment.
  • Macquarie: Maintains Neutral view but flags potential earnings miss in Q1 due to softer AUM growth.
  • Domestic Analysts: Suggest caution as the risk-reward ratio has turned unfavorable in the short term.

Stock Performance

  • Current Price (as of July 25, 2025): ₹6,950 (down ~5.3%)
  • 52-Week High: ₹8,250
  • 52-Week Low: ₹6,200
    The stock has underperformed the broader Nifty Financial Services index over the last month.

Should Investors Be Worried?

While Bajaj Finance remains fundamentally strong with a proven business model, short-term headwinds cannot be ignored. Key risks to monitor:

  • Rising competition in BNPL and digital lending space
  • Potential increase in delinquencies in the unsecured loan segment
  • Impact of high interest rates on borrowing costs and margins

What Should Investors Do?

Short-Term Traders:

  • Avoid fresh long positions until there is clarity post Q1 results.
  • Watch for support near ₹6,800–6,900. A breakdown below this could extend weakness.

Long-Term Investors:

  • Stay cautious but not panicked. Use dips for staggered accumulation only if Q1 results and commentary remain stable.
  • Focus on management guidance regarding asset quality and lending growth.

Conclusion

The sharp fall in Bajaj Finance shares reflects growing nervousness among investors about the near-term performance of NBFCs, particularly in consumer lending. While the company’s fundamentals remain robust, valuation correction and cautious sentiment from global brokerages have put the stock under pressure. Investors should remain alert, review allocations, and await more clarity from the upcoming quarterly results.

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IEX Shares Rebound 13% After Record Plunge; Stock Still Under F&O Ban – What Should Investors Do?

Shares of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) surged nearly 13% to ₹149.45, recovering sharply after experiencing a record single-day fall. Despite the rebound, the stock remains under the Futures and Options (F&O) ban list due to excessive speculative positions.


Why Did IEX Fall?

The recent crash in IEX shares was primarily triggered by regulatory uncertainty regarding the implementation of market coupling — a proposed mechanism in which the price discovery across all power exchanges is centralized. This move is perceived as a threat to IEX’s dominant position, as it could reduce its influence on price discovery and trading volumes.

Additionally, the stock entered the F&O ban list after the total open interest exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL), preventing traders from initiating fresh positions in the derivative segment.


What Led to the Rebound?

  1. Strong Q1 Results: IEX reported a 25% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit for the first quarter, indicating solid operational performance.
  2. Short Covering and Bargain Buying: After a steep correction, investors likely saw value at lower levels, triggering a sharp pullback.
  3. Technical Support: The stock found support around ₹110–₹115 and rebounded swiftly from that zone.

What Is the F&O Ban and Why Does It Matter?

When a stock is placed under the F&O ban, traders cannot take new positions in derivatives contracts — they can only reduce or square off existing positions. This is a regulatory measure to prevent excessive speculation. The ban is lifted only when the open interest falls below 80% of the MWPL.


What Should Investors Do?

Existing Investors:

  • If invested with a long-term view, consider holding your position. Much of the regulatory concern seems to be priced in, and the Q1 results were strong.
  • Avoid panic selling unless there are fundamental reasons to exit.

New Investors:

  • It is advisable to wait until the F&O ban is lifted and the stock stabilizes further.
  • Monitor developments around regulatory changes and volume trends closely.

Technical Outlook

  • After falling from ₹160+ to ₹110, the stock has shown resilience.
  • Sustaining above ₹135–₹140 with volume may indicate further stability and a potential medium-term uptrend.

Conclusion

The rebound in IEX shares offers some relief to investors after a severe correction. However, the regulatory overhang related to market coupling remains a concern. Investors should continue monitoring developments, trade with discipline, and avoid overexposure. Long-term investors can stay invested, while new buyers should wait for more clarity and technical confirmation before entering.

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ED Conducts Searches at Anil Ambani-Linked Properties: Reliance Power & Reliance Infrastructure Clarify No Impact on Business

In a major development, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) conducted searches at premises linked to industrialist Anil Ambani and companies associated with him on Thursday, triggering fresh concerns in corporate and investor circles. The action is part of an ongoing investigation under the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), related to alleged financial irregularities.

Despite the intensity of the news, two of Ambani-led key listed companies — Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure — swiftly issued official statements to the stock exchanges, asserting that the ED actions would not impact their operations or ongoing business plans.


What Triggered the ED Action?

According to sources, the ED’s searches are linked to allegations of possible FEMA violations involving certain offshore transactions. These actions reportedly involved foreign investments and fund movements linked to Anil Ambani and associated entities.

Although details of the case are still emerging, the raids focused on properties and offices associated with Anil Ambani, including the corporate offices of Reliance Group in Mumbai.


Reliance Power’s Clarification

In its filing to the BSE and NSE, Reliance Power stated:

“We would like to clarify that the reported ED action pertains to Mr. Anil D. Ambani in his individual capacity and has no connection whatsoever with Reliance Power Limited or any of its subsidiaries.”

The company emphasized that:

  • It operates independently under a professional management team.
  • There has been no summons, notice, or investigation involving Reliance Power or its subsidiaries.

Reliance Infrastructure’s Response

Reliance Infrastructure also issued a similar clarification:

“We wish to clarify that the ED’s reported actions have no connection with Reliance Infrastructure Ltd or any of its subsidiaries. The company continues to focus on its projects and ongoing operations.”

The company added that it remains committed to its infrastructure and defense businesses and is confident of maintaining business continuity.


Market Reaction

Despite the clarifications, both Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure stocks saw initial volatility on Thursday, reflecting short-term investor sentiment. However, the situation stabilized by the end of trading hours as the companies reassured stakeholders.

  • Reliance Power: Witnessed a marginal dip in early trade but recovered later.
  • Reliance Infra: Also saw brief volatility before stabilizing.

Legal Perspective

While the ED’s actions indicate that investigations are still ongoing, legal experts suggest that unless there’s a direct link established between the companies and the alleged violations, the operational continuity of these listed firms is unlikely to be affected.

FEMA-related cases often take time to conclude and may involve multi-layered financial audits and documentation assessments.


Business Outlook Remains Intact

Despite facing challenges in the past decade, both Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure have been taking steps to:

  • Restructure debt
  • Revive stalled projects
  • Attract new investments
  • Strengthen corporate governance

The current development does not alter any of their disclosed strategies or guidance shared with shareholders.


What Should Investors Do?

While regulatory investigations involving key promoters can trigger temporary uncertainty, experts advise investors to:

  • Focus on company fundamentals
  • Track official statements and disclosures
  • Avoid panic-based selling
  • Consult a financial advisor before making decisions

Long-term investors may watch for further updates from regulatory authorities and the companies themselves.


Conclusion

The ED’s action on Anil Ambani-linked premises is certainly a headline-making event, but the direct impact on Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure appears limited at this stage. Both companies have distanced themselves from the investigation and assured shareholders of continued business stability.

The situation is developing, and further clarity is expected in the coming days. Meanwhile, the market will keep a close eye on any new disclosures or regulatory responses.

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NSDL IPO Opens on July 30: Issue Size, Dates, and 10 Key Things You Should Know

India’s largest depository, National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL), is set to make its debut on the Indian stock exchanges with an initial public offering (IPO) scheduled to open for subscription on July 30, 2025. This highly anticipated public issue has been in focus, especially given NSDL’s pivotal role in India’s capital markets.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of everything you need to know from the Red Herring Prospectus (RHP), including issue size, important dates, and company fundamentals.


1. IPO Opening and Closing Dates

  • Opening Date: July 30, 2025
  • Closing Date: August 1, 2025
  • Anchor Investor Bidding: July 29, 2025

2. IPO Issue Size

The total issue size of the NSDL IPO is ₹1,743 crore, entirely through an Offer for Sale (OFS). This means existing shareholders will be offloading their stake, and no new shares will be issued.


3. Offer for Sale (OFS) Details

The OFS will include the sale of up to 5.72 crore equity shares by existing shareholders:

  • IDBI Bank
  • National Stock Exchange (NSE)
  • Union Bank of India
  • State Bank of India (SBI)
  • HDFC Bank, and others.

No fresh capital will be raised by the company through this IPO.


4. Company Background

Established in 1996, NSDL is one of the two central depositories in India and was the first to offer dematerialization services. It holds over 297 million demat accounts, with a total custody value of ₹450+ lakh crore as of March 2025.


5. Strong Market Position

  • NSDL holds a 57% market share in terms of demat custody value.
  • Trusted by leading financial institutions, mutual funds, and retail investors.
  • Major enabler of India’s capital market digitization.

6. Financial Performance (as per RHP)

  • FY24 Revenue: ₹1,098 crore
  • FY24 Net Profit: ₹232 crore
  • 3-Year CAGR Revenue Growth: 16%
  • Return on Net Worth (FY24): 21.4%

The consistent profitability and robust margins make NSDL an attractive long-term play for investors.


7. Objectives of the IPO

Since it is an OFS, the company will not receive any proceeds from the IPO. The listing will, however, enhance its visibility and provide a public market for its shares.


8. Lot Size and Price Band

The price band and lot size are expected to be announced by July 26, 2025, just ahead of the IPO opening. Retail and institutional investors are eagerly awaiting these details to make bidding decisions.


9. Book Running Lead Managers

The IPO is being managed by:

  • ICICI Securities
  • IIFL Securities
  • Kotak Mahindra Capital
  • IDBI Capital
  • Nomura Financial Advisory

10. Listing and Allotment

  • Basis of Allotment: Likely on August 5, 2025
  • Refunds Initiated: August 6, 2025
  • Shares Credited to Demat: August 7, 2025
  • Listing Date: Expected on August 8, 2025 on both NSE and BSE

Conclusion: Should You Subscribe?

NSDL is a fundamentally strong and strategically critical player in India’s financial infrastructure. With no fresh equity being issued, the IPO will primarily benefit the selling shareholders. However, retail investors seeking exposure to a strong, cash-generating business with a high entry barrier may find this IPO promising from a long-term investment perspective.

Investors should assess the price band and valuations before subscribing. Given NSDL’s dominant market share, high margins, and established reputation, the IPO is expected to attract significant interest from institutional and retail segments alike.

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