Global Stock Markets Slide as Investors Brace for Crucial Week

Global stock markets witnessed a broad-based decline as investors exercised caution ahead of a pivotal week featuring central bank policy decisions, economic data releases, and major corporate earnings reports. With uncertainties around inflation, interest rates, and global economic stability, risk sentiment has noticeably weakened across regions.


Key Reasons Behind the Market Decline

1. Upcoming US Federal Reserve Decision
Investors are closely watching the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week. While the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, any hawkish commentary regarding future policy could unsettle markets.

2. Global Inflation and Economic Data
Inflation numbers from the United States, Eurozone, and major Asian economies are scheduled for release. Persistently high inflation could force central banks to maintain or even tighten policy stances.

3. Weakness in China’s Economy
China’s recovery remains fragile, with recent industrial output and property sector data reflecting ongoing challenges. This has put pressure on regional indices, particularly in Asia.

4. Corporate Earnings in Focus
Investors await quarterly results from global technology giants, banking majors, and energy companies. Any earnings disappointments could further weigh on sentiment.


Global Market Snapshot (as of July 29, 2025)

  • United States:
    • Dow Jones: -1.2%
    • S&P 500: -1.4%
    • Nasdaq: -1.8%
  • Europe:
    • FTSE 100: -0.9%
    • DAX: -1.3%
    • CAC 40: -1.1%
  • Asia:
    • Nikkei 225: -1.5%
    • Hang Seng: -2.1%
    • Sensex (India): -0.8%

Major Events This Week

DateEvent
July 30US Federal Reserve Policy Decision
July 31US Core PCE Inflation Data
July 31China Manufacturing and Services PMIs
August 1Eurozone GDP and CPI Inflation Numbers
August 2US Non-Farm Payrolls and Job Data

What Should Investors Do?

Short-Term Strategy:

  • Expect heightened volatility throughout the week.
  • Avoid taking large speculative positions before key data is out.
  • Consider using hedges for downside protection.

Long-Term Strategy:

  • Stay focused on fundamentally strong stocks and sectors with robust balance sheets.
  • Diversify across equity, fixed income, and global geographies.
  • Avoid panic selling and maintain a long-term investment view.

Safe Haven Assets:

  • Gold and US Treasuries are likely to remain in demand as uncertainty increases.

Expert Opinion

Market analysts suggest that this week could set the tone for the rest of the quarter. Investor positioning and sentiment are likely to shift significantly depending on the Fed’s stance, inflation trends, and corporate earnings commentary. It’s important to remain cautious and informed.


Conclusion

This is one of the most crucial weeks of the quarter for global markets. Central banks, inflation data, and corporate earnings will collectively determine the short-term trajectory of equities. Investors are advised to remain calm, manage risk effectively, and focus on quality investments.

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Bajaj Finance Shares Fall Over 5% After JPMorgan Downgrade; Analysts Flag Near-Term Stress

Bajaj Finance Ltd., one of India’s top non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), witnessed a sharp sell-off in today’s trade. The stock dropped over 5% intraday after global brokerage firm JPMorgan downgraded the stock and slashed its target price, citing asset quality concerns and slowing growth outlook in the near term.

This comes amid broader market volatility and pressure across the financial sector.


What Triggered the Fall?

  1. JPMorgan Downgrade
    The global brokerage downgraded Bajaj Finance to Underweight from Neutral and cut its price target significantly. It warned of potential stress in the company’s consumer lending portfolio, especially in discretionary segments.
  2. Valuation Concerns
    Bajaj Finance has been one of the most richly valued NBFCs. With high expectations built into the price, any hint of slowdown or risk to earnings is now triggering sharper corrections.
  3. Industry-Wide Pressure
    The broader financial sector is under pressure, with many NBFCs facing scrutiny over asset quality and rising competition from fintechs and smaller lenders.
  4. Pre-Result Nervousness
    With Q1 FY26 results around the corner, analysts fear that rising credit costs or margin pressures might impact profitability.

Key Brokerage Views

  • JPMorgan: Downgraded to Underweight citing concerns over personal loan stress and peaking growth in the digital consumer finance segment.
  • Macquarie: Maintains Neutral view but flags potential earnings miss in Q1 due to softer AUM growth.
  • Domestic Analysts: Suggest caution as the risk-reward ratio has turned unfavorable in the short term.

Stock Performance

  • Current Price (as of July 25, 2025): ₹6,950 (down ~5.3%)
  • 52-Week High: ₹8,250
  • 52-Week Low: ₹6,200
    The stock has underperformed the broader Nifty Financial Services index over the last month.

Should Investors Be Worried?

While Bajaj Finance remains fundamentally strong with a proven business model, short-term headwinds cannot be ignored. Key risks to monitor:

  • Rising competition in BNPL and digital lending space
  • Potential increase in delinquencies in the unsecured loan segment
  • Impact of high interest rates on borrowing costs and margins

What Should Investors Do?

Short-Term Traders:

  • Avoid fresh long positions until there is clarity post Q1 results.
  • Watch for support near ₹6,800–6,900. A breakdown below this could extend weakness.

Long-Term Investors:

  • Stay cautious but not panicked. Use dips for staggered accumulation only if Q1 results and commentary remain stable.
  • Focus on management guidance regarding asset quality and lending growth.

Conclusion

The sharp fall in Bajaj Finance shares reflects growing nervousness among investors about the near-term performance of NBFCs, particularly in consumer lending. While the company’s fundamentals remain robust, valuation correction and cautious sentiment from global brokerages have put the stock under pressure. Investors should remain alert, review allocations, and await more clarity from the upcoming quarterly results.

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IEX Shares Rebound 13% After Record Plunge; Stock Still Under F&O Ban – What Should Investors Do?

Shares of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) surged nearly 13% to ₹149.45, recovering sharply after experiencing a record single-day fall. Despite the rebound, the stock remains under the Futures and Options (F&O) ban list due to excessive speculative positions.


Why Did IEX Fall?

The recent crash in IEX shares was primarily triggered by regulatory uncertainty regarding the implementation of market coupling — a proposed mechanism in which the price discovery across all power exchanges is centralized. This move is perceived as a threat to IEX’s dominant position, as it could reduce its influence on price discovery and trading volumes.

Additionally, the stock entered the F&O ban list after the total open interest exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL), preventing traders from initiating fresh positions in the derivative segment.


What Led to the Rebound?

  1. Strong Q1 Results: IEX reported a 25% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit for the first quarter, indicating solid operational performance.
  2. Short Covering and Bargain Buying: After a steep correction, investors likely saw value at lower levels, triggering a sharp pullback.
  3. Technical Support: The stock found support around ₹110–₹115 and rebounded swiftly from that zone.

What Is the F&O Ban and Why Does It Matter?

When a stock is placed under the F&O ban, traders cannot take new positions in derivatives contracts — they can only reduce or square off existing positions. This is a regulatory measure to prevent excessive speculation. The ban is lifted only when the open interest falls below 80% of the MWPL.


What Should Investors Do?

Existing Investors:

  • If invested with a long-term view, consider holding your position. Much of the regulatory concern seems to be priced in, and the Q1 results were strong.
  • Avoid panic selling unless there are fundamental reasons to exit.

New Investors:

  • It is advisable to wait until the F&O ban is lifted and the stock stabilizes further.
  • Monitor developments around regulatory changes and volume trends closely.

Technical Outlook

  • After falling from ₹160+ to ₹110, the stock has shown resilience.
  • Sustaining above ₹135–₹140 with volume may indicate further stability and a potential medium-term uptrend.

Conclusion

The rebound in IEX shares offers some relief to investors after a severe correction. However, the regulatory overhang related to market coupling remains a concern. Investors should continue monitoring developments, trade with discipline, and avoid overexposure. Long-term investors can stay invested, while new buyers should wait for more clarity and technical confirmation before entering.

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