Day: July 17, 2025

Indian markets closed on a weak note on Thursday’s weekly F&O expiry. The Sensex ended nearly 350 points lower at 82,259, while the Nifty managed to stay slightly above the 25,100 mark, closing at 25,111. The broader market showed relative resilience, but sentiment was weighed down by IT sector losses and a cautious stance from global investors.

Key Factors Behind Market Movement

• IT Sector Pressure: Shares of Tech Mahindra and other major IT players fell after underwhelming Q1 earnings. This contributed significantly to the day’s losses, with the Nifty IT index closing over 1% lower.
• Global Concerns: Market participants remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainty around the US Federal Reserve’s leadership and monetary policy direction. These factors are likely to impact global capital flows in the coming weeks.
• Citi Downgrade: Citigroup downgraded Indian equities from “overweight” to “neutral,” citing high valuations and limited near-term upside. It noted better relative opportunities in other Asian markets like China and South Korea.

Sectoral Highlights

• Underperformers: IT, banking, and infrastructure stocks dragged indices lower.
• Outperformers: Nifty Realty and Metals indices posted modest gains. The broader mid-cap and small-cap indices also remained resilient, indicating selective buying.

Technical View

Analysts noted that Nifty continues to find support around 25,100–25,150. However, a sustained breach below this level could lead to further downside towards 25,000 or even 24,900. Resistance in the short term is seen near the 25,300–25,350 zone.

Outlook

Market direction in the coming sessions will largely depend on upcoming earnings reports, especially from the IT sector, along with cues from global central banks. Additionally, any signals on trade or investment policy shifts may also influence sentiment.

Conclusion

Despite holding a crucial support level, Indian markets are showing signs of fatigue amid mixed earnings and global uncertainties. Investors are advised to stay cautious and maintain a selective approach in the short term.

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India has reaffirmed its confidence in the face of potential US secondary sanctions on Russian oil imports. Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that the country is not concerned about such developments, citing India’s diversified crude sourcing strategy and stable global oil supply.

India’s Diversification Strategy

India has significantly expanded its oil import portfolio. Where it earlier sourced crude from 27 countries, it now imports from over 40. This includes traditional Middle Eastern suppliers and new markets like Brazil, Argentina, Guyana, and Canada. This diversification is seen as a buffer against geopolitical uncertainties.

The minister emphasized that even if any one supply source is disrupted, India has ample alternatives. The Indian government is also ramping up domestic exploration and production to enhance energy self-sufficiency.

Current Russian Oil Dependency

Despite global pressures, Russia remains India’s largest oil supplier, accounting for nearly 35 percent of crude imports. In the first half of 2025, India imported an average of 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian crude. Private players like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy are leading buyers, often securing oil through term contracts.

However, the minister noted that even if Russian oil supplies face constraints, Indian refiners are well-positioned to pivot back to alternative suppliers used prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Stance on Sanctions

Minister Puri downplayed the threat of US secondary sanctions, implying that such measures are unlikely to impact India’s import decisions. Industry experts also back this position, suggesting that such sanctions may not be enforceable in practice or may only have limited global support.

According to policy think tanks, India’s continued purchase of Russian oil is crucial for maintaining domestic price stability and ensuring energy security, especially at a time when inflation concerns remain elevated.

Market Outlook

The global crude oil market remains well supplied. This stability is aiding countries like India to manage import prices effectively. Puri stated that if disruptions occur, they are confident of managing the supply chain without significantly affecting the Indian economy or fuel prices.

Conclusion

India’s energy strategy continues to prioritize national interest and energy security. With a robust and diversified import system and increasing domestic capabilities, the country remains confident in weathering any geopolitical shifts. The government’s measured and pragmatic approach reaffirms its commitment to affordable and uninterrupted energy access for its population.

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In a major development, the Adani Group has sold a 20% stake in AWL Agri Business Limited (formerly Adani Wilmar Ltd) to Wilmar International’s unit, Lence Pte Ltd, in a deal valued at ₹7,150 crore (at ₹275 per share). The transaction reshapes ownership, reinforcing Wilmar’s control over the food and FMCG joint venture.

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Deal Overview

• Seller: Adani Commodities LLP (subsidiary of Adani Enterprises)
• Buyer: Lence Pte Ltd (Wilmar International’s subsidiary)
• Deal Value: ₹7,150 crore (₹275 per share)
• New Ownership Structure:
  • Wilmar’s holding increases to approximately 64%
  • Adani’s stake reduces significantly from 30.4% to around 10–11%
  • Remaining shares offered to other pre-identified investors

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Ownership Restructuring

• Following this transaction and a previous 13.5% offer-for-sale in January (also at ₹275 per share, raising ₹4,855 crore), Adani’s total divestment in AWL Agri exceeds 33%.
• The sale follows a bilateral agreement allowing stake transfer up to ₹305 per share.

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Why the Deal Matters

1. Wilmar Gains Majority Control
   Wilmar now holds the operational reins to shape AWL’s FMCG and edible oil growth trajectory.
2. Adani Streamlines Focus
   With nearly ₹15,729 crore raised across two deals, Adani is redirecting capital to core infrastructure, energy, and logistics ventures.
3. Market Stability
   The transaction is expected to bring long-term stability to AWL’s share price and strategic focus.

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Q1 FY26 Performance of AWL Agri

• Revenue rose 21% year-on-year in Q1 FY26.
• Net profit fell 24% to ₹236 crore due to weak consumer sentiment and volatile commodity prices.

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Looking Ahead

• Wilmar’s Focus Areas: Strengthening presence in rice, pulses, and packaged food segments.
• Revenue Goals: Food and FMCG revenue target of ₹7,000 crore in FY26, with ₹10,000 crore planned for FY27.
• Expansion Strategy: Exploring regional acquisitions in central and southern India.

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Conclusion

This ₹7,150 crore deal signifies a strategic shift in AWL Agri’s ownership structure and long-term direction. Wilmar’s increased control marks the beginning of a new operational chapter, while Adani realigns its business priorities. Investors should monitor Wilmar’s execution in scaling FMCG operations and AWL’s roadmap for profitability and growth.

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