Infosys, TCS & Wipro: Will Q1 FY26 Signal a Revival?

As the Q1 FY26 earnings season begins, the performance of India’s top IT companies—Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, and Wipro—is in sharp focus. Investors are keen to see whether these firms can regain momentum amid global macro uncertainties, tariff risks, and evolving demand for digital transformation and AI-led services.


TCS: A Bellwether’s Barometer

TCS, India’s largest IT services exporter, is expected to post modest year-on-year growth in revenue and profit. Analysts estimate revenue growth of approximately 2.7–3.8 percent YoY and net profit growth around 1–3 percent YoY. While profit margins may dip compared to last year due to wage hikes and BSNL-related revenue normalization, sequential improvements are likely.

Key triggers for TCS include client spending patterns in North America and Europe, deal wins in cloud and AI, and management’s guidance for the remainder of the fiscal year. The market will also watch closely for commentary on the impact of potential tariffs on Indian IT exports.


Infosys: Walking a Cautious Path

Infosys has maintained a conservative outlook for FY26, with expected revenue growth in the flat to 3 percent range. This follows a weak Q4 FY25 performance and cautious client sentiment in key verticals such as BFSI and retail.

Q1 FY26 results are expected to show only marginal growth. While the company has been actively investing in GenAI capabilities, the impact on revenues may be gradual. Investors will closely monitor deal pipeline visibility and operating margin trends in this quarter.


Wipro: Under the Turnaround Lens

Wipro continues to face the challenge of reversing its recent underperformance. The new CEO’s strategy will be tested in Q1 FY26, particularly after weak Q4 FY25 results. Analysts expect Wipro to deliver flattish growth this quarter, with continued weakness in Europe and APAC regions.

This quarter could be pivotal in establishing whether the company’s turnaround plan is yielding early results. Investors will look for signs of improved deal flow, better execution, and strategic clarity.


Sector Overview: A Quarter of Transition

Overall, the Indian IT sector is expected to post modest Q1 results. While Tier-1 companies may report soft constant currency growth, mid-tier firms could outperform due to better agility and niche digital offerings. A favorable cross-currency environment may also provide some support to earnings.

This quarter is being seen as a “crossover phase” before a possible rebound in the second half of the fiscal year. The sector’s growth trajectory will heavily depend on the normalization of client budgets, AI adoption cycles, and global macro stability.


Key Factors to Watch

  • Client Budget Trends: Outlook for discretionary IT spending in key markets.
  • New Deal Wins: Especially in AI, cloud, and digital transformation.
  • Margin Trends: Wage hikes, cost optimization efforts, and operational efficiency.
  • Management Commentary: Guidance on full-year revenue and margin expectations.
  • Geopolitical Risks: Tariff implications and their potential effect on future contracts.

Conclusion

Q1 FY26 is shaping up to be a defining quarter for the IT sector. While immediate acceleration in growth may be limited, the groundwork for long-term momentum could be laid now through strategic investments and operational discipline.

Investors should adopt a selective approach, focusing on companies with strong execution, healthy deal pipelines, and a clear AI roadmap. If the top-tier players manage to stabilize, a broader sector revival could be on the horizon in the second half of FY26.

Eqwires Research Analyst

Top-notch SEBI registered research analyst

Best SEBI registered Intraday tips provider

info@eqwires.com

Telegram Facebook Instagram

Call: +91 9624421555 / +91 9624461555

www.eqwires.com

Midcap Funds Lead the Surge: AMFI June 2025 Mutual Fund Highlights

India’s mutual fund industry witnessed strong momentum in June 2025, led by aggressive inflows into equity schemes. According to data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), equity mutual fund inflows rose 24 percent month-on-month to ₹23,587 crore, up from ₹19,213 crore in May.

This rise was primarily driven by renewed retail participation, especially in midcap, smallcap, and flexi-cap categories.


Category-Wise Equity Inflows

  • Flexi-Cap Funds saw the highest inflow at ₹5,733 crore, a 49 percent increase compared to the previous month.
  • Small-Cap Funds attracted ₹4,024 crore, marking a 25 percent increase.
  • Mid-Cap Funds recorded ₹3,754 crore in net inflows, reflecting a 34 percent month-on-month jump.
  • Large-Cap Funds saw a modest ₹1,694 crore in inflows.
  • Sectoral/Thematic Funds added ₹2,222 crore in June, maintaining consistent interest.
  • ELSS (Equity-Linked Savings Scheme) continued to witness outflows, amounting to ₹556 crore, marking the third consecutive month of decline.

Industry-Wide Trends

  • Total mutual fund inflows, including equity, debt, and hybrid categories, stood at ₹49,301 crore in June, a sharp rise from ₹29,572 crore in May.
  • Overall AUM (Assets Under Management) touched a record ₹74.14 lakh crore, up 3 percent from the previous month.
  • Debt Funds saw reduced outflows, down to ₹1,711 crore from over ₹15,900 crore in May.
  • Hybrid Funds witnessed inflows of ₹23,222 crore, primarily due to arbitrage and balanced advantage fund categories.
  • Gold ETFs surged to ₹2,080 crore in inflows, reflecting increased interest in diversification amid global uncertainties.

Systematic Investment Plans (SIP)

SIPs continue to be the bedrock of mutual fund investments:

  • Monthly SIP inflow hit a record ₹27,269 crore, a 2.2 percent increase from May.
  • Total SIP accounts reached 8.64 crore, indicating rising participation from retail investors.

Key Observations

  • Midcap and smallcap segments are leading the current equity cycle, suggesting a higher risk appetite and expectations of stronger returns among retail investors.
  • The sharp jump in gold ETF inflows indicates hedging activity and increased demand for safe-haven assets.
  • SIPs remain consistent, reinforcing that investors are staying committed to long-term financial goals despite market volatility.
  • ELSS redemptions point to tax-season adjustments or shifting preferences toward non-tax-linked equity categories.

Conclusion

The June 2025 AMFI data highlights a broad-based revival in mutual fund participation, especially in mid- and small-cap equities. With inflows growing across asset classes and SIPs hitting record levels, market sentiment appears optimistic. However, the divergence in ELSS and debt fund trends reflects ongoing investor caution in certain segments. Going forward, macroeconomic stability, interest rate directions, and global cues will play a vital role in sustaining this momentum.

Eqwires Research Analyst

Top-notch SEBI registered research analyst

Best SEBI registered Intraday tips provider

info@eqwires.com

Telegram Facebook Instagram

Call: +91 9624421555 / +91 9624461555

www.eqwires.com

Vedanta Stock Tanks 8% as Viceroy Research Shorts Parent’s Debt Exposure

Vedanta Ltd witnessed a sharp decline in its share price, falling as much as 8% intraday after U.S.-based short-seller Viceroy Research revealed a short position against its parent company, Vedanta Resources. This move has reignited concerns around corporate governance, debt sustainability, and financial transparency within the Vedanta Group structure.


Background: Why Did the Stock Fall?

Viceroy Research published a detailed report accusing Vedanta Resources of using its Indian-listed subsidiary, Vedanta Ltd, to service its debt obligations and dividends. According to the report:

  • Vedanta Resources allegedly drains cash through high dividend payouts.
  • The group’s structure has been described as financially unsustainable, with some comparisons to a Ponzi-like system.
  • Viceroy claimed over ₹758 billion has been paid in dividends by Vedanta Ltd and ₹573 billion by Hindustan Zinc over the last few years to meet group-level debt obligations.
  • With rising interest rates, the group’s ability to service debt without additional equity or asset sales is questioned.

Market Reaction

Vedanta Ltd’s stock dropped nearly 8% at its lowest point during the trading session before recovering partially. By the market close, the stock was still down around 4-5%. Other group entities like Hindustan Zinc also saw declines of up to 2-3%. The broader metal index closed lower as investor sentiment turned cautious.


Vedanta’s Response

Vedanta has strongly refuted Viceroy’s allegations, calling them baseless and speculative. The company asserted that the report contains misinformation and clarified that Viceroy did not engage with Vedanta before making the report public.

The company further highlighted its ongoing restructuring efforts, including:

  • A three-year roadmap to reduce standalone debt by $3 billion.
  • The ongoing demerger plan to simplify the corporate structure and unlock value for shareholders.

Analysts’ Perspective

Market analysts noted that while the Viceroy report did not present any groundbreaking new information, it brought previously known concerns back into focus. Vedanta’s high dividend policy, complex cross-holdings, and reliance on inter-company cash flows have long been scrutinized by investors.

Analysts suggest that the core operational businesses of Vedanta remain profitable, but transparency regarding capital allocation and intercompany transfers is essential to rebuild market confidence.


Key Data Points

MetricValue
Intraday FallUp to 8%
Debt Reduction Plan$3 billion over 3 years
Dividend Payouts (Vedanta Ltd)₹758 billion
Dividend Payouts (Hindustan Zinc)₹573 billion
Current Market Price (approx)₹436 per share
Dividend Yield (approx)9.9%

What Should Investors Do?

  • Stay Cautious: The short-seller report has revived concerns that could take time to fade.
  • Monitor Corporate Actions: Updates on the demerger, quarterly earnings, and debt-reduction measures will be key.
  • Watch Regulatory Movement: Any SEBI or RBI scrutiny based on the allegations could influence market sentiment further.

Conclusion

Vedanta’s stock has come under pressure after Viceroy Research’s short call, spotlighting long-standing issues related to its parent’s financial health and the group’s dividend practices. While the company has dismissed the report and laid out a roadmap for debt reduction and structural reform, investors must remain vigilant and await further clarity. Long-term sustainability and transparency will be essential to restore investor confidence.

Eqwires Research Analyst

Top-notch SEBI registered research analyst

Best SEBI registered Intraday tips provider

info@eqwires.com

Telegram Facebook Instagram

Call: +91 9624421555 / +91 9624461555

www.eqwires.com