Month: June 2025

After a sluggish start to 2025, India’s IPO market is roaring back to life — and July might be the turning point. With several high-profile listings lined up, both retail and institutional investors have plenty to look forward to. From financial giants like HDB Financial and NSDL to industrial players like JSW Cement and Kalpataru, the IPO pipeline is packed.

Estimated total fundraising? Over ₹25,000 crore — a serious vote of confidence in India’s capital markets.

Let’s break down the most anticipated IPOs set to hit the markets next month:

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🏦 HDB Financial Services: The Big One

• Issue size: ₹12,500 crore
• Type: Fresh issue + Offer for Sale
• Why it matters: HDB is a subsidiary of HDFC Bank and falls under the RBI’s “upper layer” NBFC mandate — requiring it to list by September 2025. That makes this not just a financial move, but a regulatory milestone.

Founded in 2007, HDB serves underbanked segments across enterprise, consumer, and asset finance. With a diversified loan book and minimal borrower concentration, its fundamentals are robust. This could be the largest NBFC IPO in India’s history — and the biggest since Hyundai’s issue last year.

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📊 NSDL: A Giant in Market Infrastructure

• Issue size: ₹3,300 crore (full OFS)
• Prominent sellers: IDBI Bank, NSE

India’s oldest depository is finally going public. With rival CDSL already listed, NSDL’s debut brings fresh investor interest to market infrastructure. In FY25, the company posted a 24.6% jump in profit to ₹340 crore and 12.4% growth in revenue — highlighting its strong performance.

The listing is seen as a landmark moment in India’s financial services evolution.

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🏗️ JSW Cement: Riding the Infra Wave

• Issue size: ₹4,000 crore
• Structure: ₹2,000 crore fresh + ₹2,000 crore OFS

Part of the powerful JSW Group, JSW Cement holds a strong position in South and West India. With India’s construction and infra sectors booming, this IPO is well-timed for investors seeking exposure to core growth sectors.

Top management, including Parth Jindal, is closely involved in shaping the listing strategy — a sign of the company’s serious market intent.

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💸 Hero FinCorp: NBFC with Retail Depth

• Issue size: ₹3,670 crore (₹2,110 crore fresh + ₹1,570 crore OFS)
• Backed by: Hero MotoCorp & ChrysCapital

Hero FinCorp serves over 11.8 million customers with an AUM of ₹51,820 crore. Retail loans — including two-wheeler finance, MSME loans, and affordable housing — make up 65% of its book.

After a brief delay due to compliance, the IPO is expected to launch this July, offering another solid NBFC play to the market.

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🏢 Kalpataru: Real Estate Meets Capital Markets

• Issue size: ₹1,590 crore (fresh issue)
• Purpose: Debt reduction + corporate needs

A key player in India’s real estate and infrastructure sectors, Kalpataru is part of a larger group that includes listed Kalpataru Projects International. With backing from top investment banks like ICICI Securities, JM Financial, and Nomura, this IPO is attracting serious institutional interest.

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📈 Final Thoughts: Is This the Rebound Moment?

With strong macro fundamentals, easing inflation concerns, and investor liquidity returning, July could mark a turning point for Indian primary markets. Whether you’re a first-time retail investor or a seasoned fund manager, this wave of IPOs brings something for everyone.

Keep your demat accounts ready — Dalal Street’s next chapter is about to begin.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve may have kept interest rates steady, but Chair Jerome Powell had some sobering words at his latest press conference — especially about tariffs and their delayed impact on inflation.

“Everyone I know expects inflation to rise meaningfully in the coming months due to tariffs. Somebody has to pay for them, and it often ends up being the consumer,” Powell warned.

Despite strong recent data — like 139,000 jobs added in May, stable unemployment at 4.2%, and only a slight inflation uptick — Powell made it clear that this could just be the calm before the storm. Why? Because tariffs don’t hit overnight.

“Retailers are still selling goods they imported months ago, before tariffs were imposed. But as that pipeline clears, we’ll start seeing the real cost show up on shelves,” he explained.

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📉 Stagflation Worries Are Creeping In

Powell and his team aren’t seeing immediate signs of a slowdown, but growth is expected to taper — possibly paving the way for stagflation, the dreaded mix of rising prices and weaker growth.

In fact, the Fed just raised its inflation forecast for 2025 to over 3% (up from 2.8%), and lowered its growth outlook to 1.4% (down from 1.7%).

Is “I Got Stagflation on My Mind” the new summer anthem on Wall Street?

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📊 Markets React Cautiously

• U.S. stock markets were flat:
  S&P 500 edged down 0.03%, the Dow dropped 0.1%, while the Nasdaq ticked up 0.13%.
• In Asia, markets slid — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 2%, while Japan’s Nippon Steel rallied on its U.S. Steel acquisition.

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🗺️ Geopolitics in Focus: Iran, Israel & India

As tensions between Israel and Iran rise, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said regime change is not an “official objective,” but hinted it could bring peace. Meanwhile, Trump met his national security team again but said no decision had been made on striking Iran.

On another front, Trump had a tense call with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who pushed back hard against Trump’s claim of U.S. involvement in the India-Pakistan ceasefire.

“India does not and will never accept mediation,” said India’s Foreign Secretary.

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🌍 Emerging Markets: A Silver Lining?

Despite Trump’s tariff threats to countries like India and Vietnam, institutional investors are warming up to emerging markets again. Bank of America’s latest Fund Manager Survey shows growing interest — possibly a sign of longer-term optimism beyond the current noise.

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🧭 Bottom Line

As summer heats up, so does economic uncertainty. The Fed may be holding steady, but its tone has shifted: inflation risks are real, growth will slow, and tariffs are about to get personal — right at the checkout counter. Markets are cautiously watching, and so should you.

Stay tuned — the second half of 2025 could be anything but boring.

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Asia-Pacific markets saw mixed trading on Wednesday (June 18) as heightened geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, along with a looming U.S. interest rate decision, kept investors on edge.

Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Sentiment

Concerns deepened after former U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly considered a military strike on Iran, according to NBC News. Trump also posted on Truth Social, demanding “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—a move that spurred fears of greater U.S. involvement in the escalating conflict.

“Comments from President Trump have triggered speculation that the U.S. will get more involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel that escalated significantly five days ago,” analysts at ANZ noted.

Asian Markets: Winners and Losers

Despite the geopolitical cloud, some major Asian indices posted gains:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to close at 38,885.15
• Topix gained 0.77%, ending the day at 2,808.35
• South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.74% to 2,972.19, while the Kosdaq climbed 0.53% to 779.73

Japan’s May exports dropped 1.7% year-over-year, beating expectations of a 3.8% decline. However, the data reflects growing concerns about the country’s trade-driven growth outlook, especially after the Bank of Japan warned of a slowdown in global and domestic corporate activity.

Other regional performances were more muted:

• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.12%, finishing at 8,531.2
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.12% to 23,710.69
• China’s CSI 300 edged up 0.12%, closing at 3,874.97

Wall Street Weak Ahead of Fed Decision

Overnight, U.S. markets closed in the red as traders turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due later today:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 299.29 points (0.70%) to 42,215.80
• S&P 500 slipped 0.84% to 5,982.72
• Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.91% to 19,521.09

U.S. stock futures also traded slightly lower in Asia, reflecting the global market’s wait-and-watch approach.

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Looking Ahead

With global markets reacting to both rising geopolitical risks and central bank policy shifts, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Investors are now closely watching the Fed’s tone and projections, which could offer cues on whether rate cuts are still on the table for 2025.

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Gold prices remained largely unchanged on Wednesday, June 18, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s key policy announcement. A mix of geopolitical uncertainty and soft US economic indicators kept bullion prices in a narrow range globally, while domestic markets saw a mild correction.

Gold Holds Ground in Global Markets

In the international market:

• Spot gold held steady at $3,388.04 an ounce (as of 03:41 GMT)
• US gold futures traded around $3,406.50 per ounce

The market’s focus is squarely on the Fed’s interest rate outlook. While a rate pause is widely expected, any dovish hints about future rate cuts in 2025 could provide a strong tailwind for gold.

“Gold prices remain volatile as markets await clearer signals on what action the U.S. may take amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel,” said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion and Jewellers Association.

Domestic Gold Prices Dip on Profit Booking

In India, gold extended losses for the second straight day due to profit booking:

• 22-carat gold: ₹92,500 per 10 grams
• 24-carat gold: ₹1,00,910 per 10 grams
  (Source: Goodreturns)

Despite the pullback, analysts say domestic prices are finding support due to a weaker rupee, which offsets some of the international softness.

“Gold has near-term support at ₹98,920–₹98,590 and resistance around ₹99,950–₹1,00,000 per 10 grams,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities.

Fed Policy & US Data: What to Watch

Recent US economic indicators have sparked renewed speculation around monetary easing:

• Retail sales fell more sharply than expected
• Housing and industrial production also showed weakness

These trends bolster the case for rate cuts later in 2025, which traditionally support gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

“Tepid US data strengthens the case for rate cuts,” noted analysts at ANZ, adding that Middle East risks are also keeping gold prices supported.

Middle East Tensions Add to Market Jitters

Geopolitical risk remains a key driver of gold sentiment. Iran and Israel exchanged fresh missile attacks on Wednesday, now marking six consecutive days of open conflict. The U.S. is reportedly stepping up its military presence in the region, raising the threat of broader escalation.

This has kept safe-haven demand for gold intact despite a lack of strong momentum in prices.

Gold ETF Demand Shows Positive Signs

The SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, saw a 0.43% increase in holdings on Tuesday (June 17), suggesting continued institutional interest.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs remains bullish on the long-term outlook for bullion:

• $3,700 per ounce by end-2025
• $4,000 by mid-2026, driven by central bank demand and ETF inflows

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Conclusion

With global uncertainty on the rise and expectations of a more dovish Fed policy later this year, gold is likely to remain in focus. While near-term volatility may persist, the broader outlook remains constructive—particularly for long-term investors.

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BSE Ltd witnessed a sharp drop of up to 6.1%, hitting an intraday low of ₹2,500 on the National Stock Exchange, following regulatory changes by SEBI regarding expiry day scheduling for derivatives. However, the stock rebounded shortly after the dip.

Why Did BSE Shares Fall?

The decline came after SEBI approved the proposal to change BSE’s F&O expiry day to Thursday, aligning it with global market norms. Meanwhile, NSE has secured Tuesday as its expiry day. This shift could impact BSE’s market share in derivatives trading, prompting caution among brokerages.

Motilal Oswal Downgrades BSE

In response, Motilal Oswal downgraded BSE to a ‘Neutral’ rating, cutting its target price by 14% to ₹2,300, signaling limited upside from current levels. The brokerage expressed concerns over BSE’s shrinking market share due to the revised expiry calendar.

“We estimate BSE’s market share could drop to 18–19% from 22.6% in May 2025,” said Motilal Oswal, citing recent trends and data from the derivatives market post the March 2025 F&O regulation changes.

According to their data:

• On Wednesday and Thursday (influenced by Nifty expiry), BSE’s market share averaged around 8%.
• On Friday, Monday, and Tuesday, its premium turnover market share was higher: 21%, 24%, and 38%, respectively.

BSE CEO Defends Thursday Expiry

BSE MD & CEO Sundararaman Ramamurthy clarified that the decision to shift to Thursday expiry was taken in the best interest of market participants, especially with NSE requesting Tuesday. He highlighted that Thursday aligns with global trading algorithms and allows investors more time during the week to structure their strategies.

“Thursday expiry has supported market growth historically and fits better with the weekly trading rhythm,” Ramamurthy added.

What Happens Next?

The expiry change will apply only to contracts expiring after September 1, 2025. Existing contracts, including long-dated index options, will be adjusted accordingly. Exchanges will release detailed circulars soon to guide market participants through the transition.

SEBI also reiterated that exchanges must seek prior approval before introducing or modifying contract expiry or settlement days.

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Strong Q4 Performance by BSE

Despite the regulatory overhang, BSE delivered a robust Q4 FY25 performance:

• Net Profit: ₹494 crore (vs. ₹107 crore YoY) – a 5x jump
• Revenue: ₹846.6 crore – up 75% YoY

The board also declared a ₹23 per share dividend, including a ₹5 special dividend. The record date was May 14, and payment will be completed by September 18, 2025.

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Stock Performance Snapshot

• Last 5 sessions: Down 7.8%
• 1-month return: +6%
• 3-month return: +91%
• 1-year return: +189.5%

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Final Word

While regulatory shifts may create near-term volatility, BSE’s strong financials and strategic alignment with global markets could offer long-term stability. Investors should keep an eye on how trading volumes evolve under the new expiry framework.

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