Month: June 2025

After a promising start, domestic benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex cooled off in the afternoon session on Tuesday, June 24, as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighed on investor sentiment. The markets closed modestly higher, but well off their intraday peaks.

The dampened mood followed reports that Israel intercepted two missiles fired from Iran, just hours after a ceasefire between the two nations was declared. An official from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the interception, as reported by CNN.

Reacting strongly, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated, “In light of Iran’s blatant violation of the ceasefire declared by the President of the United States… I have instructed the IDF to continue high-intensity operations targeting regime assets and terror infrastructure in Tehran.”

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Closing Bell Snapshot: Nifty & Sensex End in Green

• Sensex rose 158 points (0.19%) to close at 82,055.11
• Nifty 50 gained 72 points (0.29%) to settle at 25,044.35

Market breadth was positive, with 2,570 stocks advancing, 1,289 declining, and 129 unchanged.

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Midcaps, Smallcaps Outshine; PSU Banks Rally Over 2%

Despite the pullback in the frontline indices, the broader market outperformed, with both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 ending about 0.7% higher.

Sectorally, most indices held firm. Notably:

• Auto, PSU banks, and metal stocks were among the top gainers.
• The Nifty PSU Bank index surged over 2%, driven by renewed buying interest. The rally was bolstered by a report from HDFC Securities, which highlighted signs of a ‘secular turnaround’ in the public banking space.

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Defence Stocks Decline as Geopolitical Risk Eases

Defence-related stocks took a hit after a two-day rally, with investors booking profits amid hopes of de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that a ceasefire had been reached between the two nations also contributed to the dip, calming crude oil prices and reducing fears of a broader regional crisis.

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Technical View: Key Levels to Watch on the Nifty

The Nifty’s breakout attempt above its recent consolidation zone faced resistance, with the index once again retreating to the 24,500–25,000 range. However, analysts remain cautiously optimistic.

According to Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, the index continues to find strong buying support around 24,700–24,750.

“A close above 25,250 could reignite bullish momentum and push the index toward 25,500,” he said. “On the downside, any meaningful weakness would only emerge if Nifty breaks below 24,700—until then, dips are likely to be bought.”

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Outlook

While today’s session reflected the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical news, underlying strength in mid- and small-cap segments, as well as in PSU banks, suggests that investors remain cautiously optimistic. Traders will be watching for clarity on the Middle East situation, along with global cues, before making their next move.

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At the Adani Group’s Annual General Meeting (AGM), Chairman Gautam Adani addressed recent allegations and laid out an ambitious roadmap for the Group’s future. Refuting claims tied to an alleged bribery scandal, Adani asserted, “Despite all the noise, the facts are that no one from the Adani Group has been charged with violating the FCPA or conspiring to obstruct justice.”

His remarks follow reports that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are investigating Adani Green Energy for potential violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The DOJ alleges the Group ran a $250–265 million bribery scheme between 2020 and 2024 to secure solar energy contracts in India.

Adani emphasized that the Group is fully cooperating with legal proceedings and reiterated its commitment to global compliance and governance standards, calling them “non-negotiable.”

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Innovation & Sustainability: Green Energy and India’s First Hydrogen Mining Truck

The AGM wasn’t just about damage control. Adani used the platform to spotlight a series of bold initiatives in energy, infrastructure, and sustainability.

Among the highlights was the launch of India’s first hydrogen-powered mining truck, a significant step toward decarbonizing industrial operations. The Group also continues to scale up in green energy, with Adani Green Energy building the world’s largest renewable energy park in Khavda, Gujarat. The company aims to hit 50 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, contributing to a broader goal of 100 GW when including thermal and hydro power.

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Big Numbers, Bigger Ambitions: Record Performance in FY25

Despite global scrutiny, the Adani Group posted strong financials for FY25.

• Consolidated revenue rose 7% to ₹2,71,664 crore
• EBITDA increased 8.2% to ₹89,806 crore
• Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio remained healthy at 2.6x

“Even in a year of turbulence, we saw record-breaking revenue, unprecedented growth, and historic profitability,” Adani told shareholders.

The Group plans to invest $15–20 billion annually over the next five years, channeling funds into infrastructure, energy, logistics, and digital services. “These are not just investments in our Group, but investments in building India’s infrastructure,” he added.

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Sector-by-Sector: Key Milestones Across the Adani Empire

• Power: Adani Power crossed 100 billion units of electricity generation and is on track to reach 31 GW capacity by 2030.
• Transmission: Adani Energy Solutions secured ₹44,000 crore in orders and is rolling out smart metering projects worth ₹13,600 crore.
• Solar Manufacturing: Adani New Industries is building a 10 GW integrated solar module facility to support India’s clean energy mission.
• Cement: The Group has already crossed 100 MTPA capacity, achieving 72% of its goal to reach 140 MTPA by FY27-28.
• Gas & EVs: Adani Total Gas now serves 1 million PNG customers and operates 3,400 EV charging stations across 22 states.

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Ports, Airports, and a New Mega-Airport

• Adani Ports handled a record 450 MMT of cargo in FY25, while continuing to expand integrated logistics services under the Gati Shakti Mission.
• Aviation: The Group’s airport business had its best year yet, handling 94 million passengers. The much-anticipated Navi Mumbai International Airport is on track to open this year, launching with a capacity of 20 million passengers and aiming for 90 million in the long term—targeting 35% of India’s passenger traffic.

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Looking Ahead

While facing external challenges, the Adani Group appears committed to its high-growth trajectory and national infrastructure goals. Gautam Adani’s message was clear: “We are building businesses that matter—for India’s future, and for global sustainability.”

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The Union government is reportedly considering new relief measures to support Vodafone Idea (Vi), in a bid to prevent the struggling telecom giant from going under. According to a report by The Economic Times, these steps could include a significant extension of the repayment period for adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues—from the current 6 years to as long as 20 years—as well as a shift from compound interest to a simpler, more forgiving interest structure.

These discussions come at a critical time. Vodafone Idea’s stock rose over 4% on Tuesday, trading at ₹6.83 as of 11:20 AM, signaling investor optimism over potential government intervention.

The government holds a 49% stake in Vi, making it the company’s largest shareholder. There is increasing concern within official circles that without additional regulatory support, Vi could be heading toward insolvency. The proposed relief could potentially bring down the telco’s annual AGR burden from ₹18,064 crore to around ₹15,000 crore—or even less, depending on how the terms are finalized.

Still, doubts remain. Some officials are reportedly sceptical about whether Vi can meet even these reduced payments, given the company’s constrained cash flow and massive debt load.

This comes on the heels of a major legal blow: the Supreme Court recently dismissed Vi’s plea to waive approximately ₹30,000 crore in interest and penalties related to AGR dues, calling the request “shocking” and “misconceived.”

Vodafone Idea is also grappling with additional liabilities of around ₹1.19 lakh crore, including dues from the 2021 spectrum auction. In a recent letter to the Department of Telecommunications, Vi CEO Akshaya Moondra issued a stark warning: without timely support from the government, the company may not survive beyond FY26.

“Without GoI’s timely support on AGR, VIL will not be able to operate beyond FY26,” Moondra wrote. He further warned that a collapse would freeze capital expenditures, reduce the subscriber base, hit earnings, and ultimately render the government’s equity stake worthless.

Perhaps most significantly, Moondra cautioned that Vi’s exit could turn India’s telecom sector into a duopoly—leaving just Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel to dominate the market. That could have far-reaching implications for competition, pricing, and future spectrum auctions.

As the government weighs its next move, the fate of India’s third-largest telecom operator—and the competitive balance of the entire industry—hangs in the balance.

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As tensions flare in the Gulf, concerns are rising that Iran might retaliate against recent U.S. airstrikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s busiest oil shipping lane. If that happens, the global economy could face a major shock.

But why is this narrow waterway so important? And what would a blockade actually mean for oil markets, global inflation, and some of the world’s largest economies?

Let’s break it down.

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🌍 What Is the Strait of Hormuz—And Why Is It So Important?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, flanked by Iran to the north and Oman and the UAE to the south. At its narrowest, it’s just 33km (20 miles) wide—but it’s deep and wide enough to allow the passage of the world’s largest oil tankers.

This tiny stretch of water is a global energy lifeline. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 20% of global oil and a significant chunk of natural gas—roughly 20 million barrels per day—pass through it.

That includes oil not just from Iran, but also from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar—key suppliers to markets like China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

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🛑 What Happens if Iran Blocks the Strait?

A full or even partial closure could:

• Skyrocket global oil prices, potentially pushing them into triple digits
• Trigger inflation worldwide, especially in oil-importing economies
• Disrupt global trade, with thousands of ships forced to reroute or delay
• Rattle financial markets, from stock indices to currency exchange rates

According to analysts, China, India, and Japan—among the biggest buyers of oil from the Gulf—would be hit especially hard. China alone reportedly buys 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and about half of India’s crude flows through the strait.

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⚔️ Can Iran Really Do It?

Technically, yes.

International maritime law gives Iran control over its territorial waters—up to 12 nautical miles—which includes much of the Strait. Iran has previously hinted at using its navy, fast boats, submarines, and sea mines to enforce a blockade.

But any such move would almost certainly provoke a swift military response. The U.S. Navy has a strong presence in the region, and history offers a precedent.

In the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq war, a similar crisis known as the “Tanker War” saw attacks on commercial ships. The U.S. responded by escorting oil tankers through the strait—the largest naval convoy operation since World War II.

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🧨 Will It Really Happen?

Iran has made such threats before—but never followed through.

Analysts say a blockade would be economically disastrous for Iran itself. Iran exported $67 billion worth of oil in the year ending March 2025—its highest revenue in a decade. Disrupting traffic through the strait could alienate allies and buyers, especially China, which depends heavily on Gulf oil.

“Iran risks turning its neighbors into enemies and upsetting its key market China by blocking the strait,”
— Vandana Hari, energy analyst

Even U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that such a move would be “economic suicide” for Iran, urging China to use its influence to prevent escalation.

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🔁 Are There Backup Plans?

Yes, but they’re limited.

Several Gulf countries have spent years developing alternative oil export routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s a look at what’s available:

• Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline: Can transport up to 5 million barrels/day to the Red Sea.
• UAE’s Abu Dhabi–Fujairah pipeline: Handles 1.5 million barrels/day to the Gulf of Oman.
• Iran’s Goreh–Jask pipeline: Recently completed, but has limited capacity—350,000 barrels/day.

Together, these routes can move about 3.5 million barrels/day—only a fraction of the 20 million barrels that normally transit the Strait.

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📉 The Bottom Line

The Strait of Hormuz may be just a sliver of ocean, but its importance is colossal. A blockade—even temporary—could ripple across the globe, raising energy costs, disrupting supply chains, and unsettling markets already on edge.

While a full shutdown is still unlikely, even the threat is enough to send shockwaves. For now, investors, governments, and energy markets will be watching every move in the Gulf, hoping this flashpoint doesn’t ignite a global crisis.

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After a sharp sell-off in early trade, Indian equity markets bounced back strongly on Monday, as easing crude oil prices, stable global cues, and lower volatility helped soothe investor nerves.

The Sensex, which had plunged by over 900 points during the day, trimmed losses significantly to trade around 81,931 by 3 PM—down just about 430 points. The Nifty, too, clawed back above the 24,950 mark after dipping to an intraday low of 24,824.85.

What Turned the Tide?

Here are five key reasons behind Monday’s recovery rally:

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1. Crude Oil Prices Retreat

Oil prices cooled off after an initial spike, offering relief from fears of imported inflation. Brent crude, which had surged to $77.66 per barrel amid rising geopolitical tensions, later eased to $75.69. The retreat in crude helped calm inflationary worries and supported equity sentiment.

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2. Market Volatility Tapers Off

The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, fell to 14.06—still up 2.83% for the day but signaling a moderation in investor anxiety. A lower VIX is typically viewed as a sign of stability and confidence returning to the markets.

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3. Global Markets Hold Steady

Global sentiment improved as Wall Street futures reversed losses later in the day. Earlier, US markets had dipped following reports of US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, but the impact was limited. Asian markets also traded in positive territory, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite both gaining around 1%.

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4. Geopolitical Risk Seen as Contained

Despite the heightened tensions following the US strikes on Iranian sites, market experts believe the situation is unlikely to spiral further.

“Even though the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities has worsened the crisis in West Asia, the fallout for markets appears limited,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
“The market believes Iran’s response will remain measured, given its economic ties with China and limited options against the US and Israel.”

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5. Strait of Hormuz Stays Open

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, remains open despite Iranian lawmakers voting in favor of a potential closure. This eased concerns over any immediate disruption in oil supplies.

“The threat of the Hormuz Strait closing has always existed but never materialized,” Vijayakumar added. “Its closure would hurt Iran—and its ally China—more than others. This underpins the market’s continued ‘buy on dips’ strategy.”

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Key Gainers

Among the day’s top performers were Trent, Bharat Electronics, Hindalco Industries, Bajaj Finance, and Adani Enterprises, with gains of up to 4%.

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Final Take

While the day started on a jittery note, markets showed resilience, rebounding sharply as fears around oil and geopolitics eased. With volatility cooling and global cues turning supportive, investors appear willing to stay the course—especially on dips.

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