China’s rare earth exports jump ahead of US trade negotiations

China’s exports of rare earths (a group of 17 minerals at the centre of a trade dispute with Washington) rose 23% in May from a month earlier, according to customs data released on Monday, reported Bloomberg. 

This increase comes two months after Beijing suspended exports of a wide range of rare earths and related magnets, underscoring China’s dominance in the global critical minerals industry with an aim to counter the US in the ongoing trade war with President Donald Trump.

Rare earth shipments increase

China exported 5,865 tons of rare earths in May. Although total shipments so far this year remain below 2024 levels, last month’s jump helped push the year-to-date figure 2.3% higher to 24,827 tons.

The data compiled by Bloomberg does not include rare earth products, which include high-value magnets for electric motors and hard disk drives.

Agenda of the trade talk

US and Chinese officials are set to meet in London this week as the world’s two biggest economies seek to diffuse tensions over tariffs and export restrictions, reported Bloomberg.

Rare earths are expected to top the agenda in the meeting among a list of grievances, which include China’s export controls on rare earth minerals and magnets, which are used widely in high-tech and defence manufacturing.

China’s dominance in rare earths reserves

According to Bloomberg, the export figures offer an incomplete picture of the impact of China’s curbs as they only apply to global sales of seven of the elements. 

Those curbs were imposed on April 4 in retaliation for high tariffs levied on Chinese goods by Donald Trump. China accounts for almost 70% of the world’s production of rare earths.

May data for rare earth products is due to be released on June 18. The breakdown of export destinations should be available June 20, as reported by Bloomberg.

China plans to loosen export restrictions

As reported by Bloomberg, China appeared to loosen its curbs last month, after an announcement on May 12 that the two countries had agreed to charge lower tariffs and negotiate other barriers to trade. The US subsequently accused Beijing of stalling on sales, although delays may have been due to long lead times in China’s permitting system.

European trade officials and carmakers have also complained about disruption to supplies from China.

On Saturday, the Chinese government said it had granted approvals for some rare earths exports, without specifying which countries or industries were covered, in a move that could help smooth Monday’s talks with the US, according to Bloomberg.

Decline in rare earths product sales

Customs data showed that rare earth and product sales to the US in April dropped 37% from a month earlier to about 1,700 tons. Within that, rare earth magnet sales fell more steeply by 58% to 246 tons. Magnet sales to the whole world were 51% lower at around 2,600 tons.

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Starlink to launch in India with ₹3,000 monthly plans, ₹33,000 setup cost

Elon Musk’s satellite internet venture Starlink is moving closer to launching its services in India, with expected pricing of ₹3,000 per month for unlimited data and a ₹33,000 one-time cost for the receiver kit, according to CNBC Awaaz. The service is expected to begin operations within the next 12 months, as reported by NDTV. 

Starlink recently secured a key licence from the Ministry of Telecommunications on June 6, marking a major milestone in its efforts to enter India’s broadband market. With this clearance, Starlink joins Bharti Airtel’s OneWeb and Reliance Jio’s satellite arm as one of the three players authorised to offer satellite-based internet services in India.

Targeting regions with LEO satellite tech

Starlink plans to deliver 600–700 Gbps of bandwidth through its low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, targeting rural and remote areas where conventional fibre and mobile networks remain limited or unreliable.

While India is known for offering some of the world’s most affordable data rates, Starlink is positioning itself as a premium provider in regions where terrestrial internet is not an option.

Initial expectations for Starlink’s India pricing had varied. Former Starlink India head Sanjay Bhargava had estimated a first-year cost of ₹1.58 lakh, which would reduce to ₹1.15 lakh in subsequent years. The updated figures bring pricing in line with Starlink’s recent launch in Bangladesh, which offers the service at ₹3,000 per month and a ₹33,000 hardware cost.

Starlink expands footprint in Asia

Starlink currently operates across select Asian countries, including Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. Pricing for its Residential Lite plans across the region typically ranges from ₹2,600 to ₹3,000 per month, while standard plans are priced between ₹4,000 and ₹6,000 depending on the market.

In Bangladesh, where the pricing model closely mirrors that proposed for India, the first-year cost totals around ₹66,000.

Despite receiving its operating licence, Starlink must still navigate further regulatory hurdles before it can launch services in India. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s (TRAI) spectrum allocation recommendations are still awaiting approval from the DoT.

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RBI’s double bonanza: Can it spark the next rally in the Indian stock market?

Indian stock market bulls were buoyed after the country’s central bank delivered a surprise policy move last week, pushing the frontline indices to break out of their recent narrow trading range amid ongoing global trade tensions.

The RBI-led uptrend extended in today’s trade (June 9) as well, with both frontline indices gaining nearly 0.70% each to the day’s high, largely led by financials, as the sector attracted renewed interest from Dalal Street investors. Optimism grew that the latest policy moves would support credit recovery in the economy and lead to a rebound in banks’ earnings.

On Friday, the Indian central bank announced a deeper-than-expected 50 basis point cut in the repo rate to 5.5%, bringing it to a nearly three-year low, along with an unexpected 100 basis point cut in the CRR. These moves reflect the RBI’s shift in focus toward reviving the country’s growth engine after successfully bringing inflation under control.

The CRR cut surprised the Street, even though the RBI had already infused over ₹7 lakh crore of liquidity through OMOs and forex swaps since January 2025. These policy tailwinds, combined with domestic positives such as strong Q4 GDP growth and higher GST collections, are expected to drive market momentum in the near term.

However, experts said that the sustainability of the rally will depend on a further revival in earnings in the ongoing fiscal year to ease persistent valuation concerns.

Valuation still remains stretched across sectors

India Inc.’s better-than-expected March quarter results have slightly eased valuation concerns. However, several sectors and stocks still remain overvalued, as earnings downgrades continue to exceed upgrades. According to domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal’s coverage universe, earnings estimates for 63 companies saw an upward revision of over 3%, while 110 companies faced a downgrade of more than 3%, highlighting the ongoing trend where downgrades outpace upgrades.

The Street is anticipating that Nifty 50 companies could deliver mid-teen earnings growth over the next two years, which analysts believe will be hard to achieve given the ongoing demand challenges, suggesting the downgrades likely to persist. 

Following a modest 1% year-on-year growth in EPS for FY25, Nifty 50 earnings estimate for FY26 and FY27 have been revised downward by 2% and 1.1%, respectively, to 1,135 and 1,314.

RBI’s stimulus may lift floors, but earnings growth needed to break ceilings: Experts

According to Dr. V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, the monetary bazooka fired by the RBI on Friday will keep the market spirits alive in the near-term. But this is not sufficient to sustain the rally triggered on Friday. More important is the trend in earnings growth. Q4 results indicate better earnings growth for midcaps. But large and small caps continue to struggle. 

Vijayakumar believes that FY26 earnings are unlikely to reach mid-teen growth levels, which are necessary for the market to remain resilient and move meaningfully higher.

He added that the market needs clear signs of revenue and earnings acceleration to break out of its current range. In the absence of such indicators, the Nifty may only edge higher to a range of 24,500–25,500.

While abundant liquidity could support the downside, concerns over earnings are likely to cap any significant upside. On a positive note, he sees weak macroeconomic data from the US and China as supportive for emerging markets like India.

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