Month: May 2025

The NSE Nifty 50 index surged over 1 per cent in intra-day deals on Friday to hit a high of 24,589 – its highest point in calendar year 2025. The index, however, trimmed gains as trade progressed as investors took profits off the table. 

The Nifty has rallied by 13 per cent from its April 7 low of 21,744 in less than a month. In doing so, the Nifty this Friday stands on the brink of a major technical breakout on the charts after 28 weeks – i.e. since October 25, 2024. 

The Nifty is seen quoting firmly above its weekly super trend line resistance, which stands at 24,169 – a key technical indicator the NSE benchmark has been languishing below for the last 28 weeks. A close above 24,169 today shall confirm the breakout on the weekly chart. 

The weekly super trend line is a key technical indicator as it helps in determining the medium-term trend of the underlying index or stock. In general, stocks or indices quoting above this key indicator are said to be trading with a positive bias, and vice versa.

Given this background, here’s what likely may happen in the event of a successful breakout on the Nifty. 

Nifty 

Current Level: 24,440 
Upside Potential: 6% 
Support: 24,051; 23,550; 23,300 
Resistance: 24,800; 24,980; 25,200 

Technically, a breakout on the weekly scale for the Nifty shall open the doors for a likely rally towards 25,900 levels; above which a new high cannot be ruled out. Chart shows the index could face interim resistance around 24,800, 24,980 and 25,200 levels.

The short-term bias for the index is expected to remain favourable as long as the index holds above 23,550, with near support anticipated around the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (200-DSMA) at 24,051 levels. Whereas, the medium-term chart indicates strong support for the index at 23,300 levels.

Sensex 

Current Level: 80,700 
Upside Potential: 6.7% 
Support: 79,190; 78,150; 77,400 
Resistance: 82,000; 82,400; 83,770; 84,240; 84,860 

With today’s high at 81,173, the BSE Sensex has triggered a ‘Buy’ signal on the quarterly Fibonacci chart, by surpassing its quarterly Resistance-2 (R-2). Technically, the Sensex shall now target the R-3 level, which stands at 82,000-mark. 

The 82,000-mark, may offer stiff resistance in the near-term, as it coincides with the yearly hurdle at 81,900 levels. Break and sustained trade above the same, can potentially trigger a rally towards 86,100 levels. Interim resistance for the index can be anticipated around 82,420, 83,770, 84,240 and 84,860 levels. 

The near-term bias for the Sensex is expected to remain favourable as long as the index holds above 79,170 levels; below which the Sensex shall seek support around 78,150 and 77,400 levels.

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Tesla sales plunged by more than half last month in several European countries in a sign that Elon Musk could struggle to revive the company after he shifts from his Washington work to running the automaker again.

Tesla sales collapsed in April by more than two-thirds from a year earlier in Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark, according to auto groups and government agencies Friday. Sales at the Austin, Texas, company dropped by 59 per cent in France and 38 per cent in Norway.

The countries are not major drivers of sales overall, but they are the first to report April results and thus a foretaste of possible trouble elsewhere as Tesla reels from protests and boycotts over Musk wading into politics.

In Germany, where he told voters their country was lost if they didn’t vote for a candidate widely derided for her extreme views, sales plunged 62 per cent in the first three months this year. German sales for April are not out yet.

Financial analysts covering Tesla are worried about the Musk backlash but caution it’s not clear exactly how much to blame politics for the hit. Other factors suppressing sales include Tesla’s aging model lineup and new offerings from rival electric vehicles makers, such as China BYD.

Tesla also had to shut down factories for several weeks this year while upgrading its best selling Model Y sport utility vehicle, pinching supply. And the company is still waiting for European regulators to approve its partial self-driving features in its cars, a big selling point in the US and China.

We could see sales come back once they get it, said Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein, though he added about the April figures, It’s never a good thing when you have large sales declines like this.

The disappointing numbers come a little over a week since Musk told investors on a first-quarter conference call that he would be stepping back from his work in Washington as President Donald Trump’s chain-saw wielding cost-cutting czar. Musk has shut down whole government departments as head of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, and thrown tens of thousands of public workers out of their jobs.

On the call, Musk said he would be spending only one or two days a week on DOGE work starting in May, acceding to demands that he refocus on his job as Tesla’s chief executive officer.

The stock has been rising since that announcement despite crumbling financial figures. Profits in the first quarter fell 71 per cent.

The sales hit in April was the worst in Sweden, where Mobility Sweden said they fell 81 per cent. That was followed by a 74 per cent plunge in the Netherlands and a 67 per cent drop in Denmark, according to the Dutch trade association BOVAG and Mobility Denmark respectively.

The Norwegian Road Traffic Information Council reported a 38 per cent drop in that country.

One bright spot: Tesla was able to sell more cars in Italy, according to an Italian Ministry of Infrastructure and Transportation report, registering a 3 per cent gain for the month.

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IndusInd Bank stock surged over 3 per cent to ₹ 864 in intra-day deals on Friday, and was the top gainer among banks in the Sensex that gained nearly a per cent to hit the 81,000 mark. On the other hand, In comparison, the Nifty Bank index was trading around 0.8 per cent higher in intraday trade at 55,508 levels. 

IndusInd Bank stock has zoomed nearly 36 per cent from its April-month low of ₹ 637.

IndusInd Bank has been in the news amid resignations of the top management. The bank’s Managing Director (MD) and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Sumant Kathpalia, and Deputy Chief Executive Officer Arun Khurana had resigned last week. 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) then approved the formation of a temporary leadership team at IndusInd Bank. The developments follow accounting lapses that triggered a sharp fall in the stock in April. 

Given this background, what should be your trading strategy in IndusInd Bank stock? Should you buy, sell or hold IndusInd Bank stock? Here’s what the technical chart suggests. 

IndusInd Bank

Current Price: ₹ 859 
Upside Potential: 9.9% 
Downside Risk: 12.7% 
Support: ₹ 822; ₹ 763 
Resistance: ₹ 901; ₹ 944 

IndusInd Bank stock is seen trading above its 50-Daily Moving Average (50-DMA), which stands at ₹822, for the last three trading sessions. That apart, the stock also trades firmly above its 20-DMA (₹ 763), and saw a positive breakout in mid-April above ₹ 740 levels – since then the stock has gained 16.5 per cent in the last 11 trading sessions. 

Technically, the stock short-term bias for the stock is expected to remain positive as long as the stock sustains above ₹ 750 – ₹ 763 support zone. However, chart shows that the stock may see limited gains on the upside owing to presence of major hurdles. 

The stock is now seen nearing its crucial 100-DMA resistance, a key hurdle the stock has been languishing below for the last seven months. The 100-DMA resistance now stands at ₹ 901 levels. Above which, the up side for the stock seems capped around ₹ 944 levels – wherein stands the weekly super trend line hurdle – a key indicator the stock has failed to conquer for more than a month.

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Tech giant Apple is procuring half of its iPhones for its US market from India, as the tariffs are lower than in China, its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Tim Cook said. 

Speaking to CNBC after quarterly earnings, Tim Cook also added that it is sourcing its other products from Vietnam for its US market. However, he added, the company still makes the “vast majority” of its products for other countries in China. 

Cook also confirmed that India will be the ‘country of origin’ for a large number of iPhones that will be sold in the US. This comes as the country tries to move away from China, owing to its high tariff rates as compared to the 10 per cent tariffs imposed on Indian and Vietnamese-made goods.

Why Apple is moving iPhone production away from China’s high tariffs

Tim Cook’s remarks follow US President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Talking about the impact on the company, Cook said that it saw a “limited” effect in the March quarter, as Apple was able to optimise its supply chain. 

iPhones to cost less if production is moved to India

An India Dispatch report citing JPMorgan analysis suggests that the tech giant would be able to keep the price of its phones almost the same if it completes the final steps of moving the facility to India. A cost breakdown suggests that iPhones assembled in China cost $938, whereas it would cost $1,008 if the production were moved to India. This increase of 2 per cent in the prices is relatively cheaper as compared to the 30 per cent hike in the prices of iPhones, if the company decides to manufacture phones in the US. 

A report from the Financial Times suggests that Apple is planning to shift the assembly of all of its US-sold iPhones to India by 2026 as the company pivots away from China following a trade war between the two countries. Following Trump’s tariff announcement, the company witnessed a wipeout of $700 billion from its market value. 

This comes after the company spent almost two decades in China and spent heavily on creating a production line which helped the company to become a $3 trillion tech giant. 

Moving its assembly to India would mean that the company would have to double its production output. In 2024, Apple sought to pivot towards India for the production of its iPhones, for which its main supplier, Foxconn, and Tata started importing already assembled component sets from China. 

Apple Q2 results: Revenue grows to $95.4 billion, iPhone leads the charge

For the quarter ending March, Apple reported revenue of $95.4 billion, up from $90.75 billion a year ago. iPhone revenue stood at $46.84 billion. Mac revenue was $7.95 billion, while iPad revenue was reported at $6.4 billion. 

In the current quarter, ending in June, Cook expects overall revenue to grow in the “low to mid-single digits” on an annual basis. However, he admitted that forecasts beyond June are murky, indicating that the tariff situation remains fluid. 

The company follows a fiscal year cycle that begins in October and ends in September. The first quarter is from October to December, and the results were reported in January. 

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs: What it means for Apple and iPhone supply chains

On 2 April, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on more than 100 countries, including India and China. On 9 April, he announced a 90-day pause on these tariffs as several countries tried to negotiate a deal with the US. However, the list did not include China, which retaliated with its own reciprocal tariffs. 

Currently, the US has imposed 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese products, while China has imposed 125 per cent tariffs on US goods.

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India’s manufacturing sector hit a 10-month high in April 2025, despite the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) only rising slightly to 58.2 from 58.1 in March, according to data compiled by S&P Global on Friday.  

The seasonally adjusted index signalled the strongest improvement in the sector’s health since June 2024, driven by faster growth in employment, production, and stocks of purchases. 

This follows a dip to a 14-month low of 56.3 in February, when output, new orders, and input purchasing had slowed. 

Outputut demand, export boom drive PMI

New orders, especially from overseas, rose sharply. International demand grew at the second-fastest rate in over 14 years, with businesses from Africa, Asia, Europe, West Asia, and the Americas placing more orders for Indian goods, the HSBC survey noted. Adding that factories increased production at the fastest pace since June 2024, with consumer goods leading this growth. 

Commenting on PMI, Chief India Economist at HSBC Pranjul Bhandari, said, “The notable increase in new export orders in April may indicate a potential shift in production to India, as businesses adapt to the evolving trade landscape and US tariff announcements. Manufacturing output growth strengthened to a ten-month high on robust orders. Input prices increased slightly faster, but the impact on margins could be more than offset by the much faster rise in output prices, of which the index jumped to the highest level since October 2013.” 

Manufacturers optimistic on future growth

About 9 per cent of surveyed manufacturers hired more workers, both permanent and temporary, to meet rising demand.  Companies increased their buying activity and built up inventories to keep up with future demand. 

The April data showed strong optimism about future output, driven by expectations of higher demand. Companies were also more confident due to better marketing, improved efficiency, and more new customer enquiries.

What is manufacturing PMI?

The manufacturing PMI is a key economic indicator that reflects business activity in the sector. It is based on survey responses from purchasing managers and covers areas such as production levels, new orders, employment, supplier performance, and inventory levels. Given its forward-looking nature, PMI data is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers to assess economic trends and momentum. 

Industrial output recovers in March

Meanwhile, industrial output showed a modest recovery in March. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 3 per cent, up from February’s six-month low of 2.72 per cent. However, overall IIP growth for FY25 slowed to 4 per cent, the weakest in four years, compared to 5.9 per cent in FY24. The subdued performance highlights a broader deceleration across several industrial segments. 

In March, the uptick in IIP was supported by growth in electricity output (6.3 per cent) and a mild recovery in manufacturing (3 per cent). However, mining sector growth remained weak at just 0.4 per cent. For context, IIP had risen by 5.4 per cent in March 2024 and had contracted by 8.4 per cent during the pandemic-hit FY21.

Reserve Bank open to rate cuts

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent in April, while shifting its stance from “neutral” to “accommodative,” signalling potential further easing. This marked the second rate cut in 2025, following a similar reduction in February to 6.25 per cent from 6.5 per cent.

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for June 4-6, 2025.

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