Day: May 30, 2025

Market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has barred actor Arshad Warsi, along with his wife, and his brother from accessing the securities market for one year for allegedly artificially inflating the share price of Sadhna Broadcast Ltd (SBL) before dumping it. SEBI passed a final order in the matter of Sadhna Broadcast Limited. Company has now changed its name to Crystal Business System Ltd.

SEBI has also imposed monetary penalty of Rs 5 lakh each on these individuals. SEBI has further ordered disgorgement of Rs 1.05 crore collectively from them.

SEBI has alleged that Warsi and others colluded with an individual named Manish Mishra who was allegedly involved in creating a false positive narrative about SBL and luring investors to buy the shares of the company. SEBI found chats between Mishra and Warsi.

SEBI alleged that Warsi was aware that Mishra was carrying out structured trades in the scrip. However, Warsi, his wife and brother have claimed that they are new to the stock market and are not aware about its nuances. They submitted that they have been victims of the alleged fraud perpetrated by Mishra and have incurred substantial loss on account of the trades directed by him.

SEBI in its final order said that Arshad Warsi in his statement recorded before SEBI on June 27, 2023, stated that apart from placing trades in his own account, he was also trading from the accounts of his wife and brother. SEBI order said, “It is noted from the WhatsApp chats between Manish Mishra and Arshad Warsi that Manish Mishra was proposing to transfer Rs 25 lakhs each in the bank accounts of Arshad Warsi, his wife and his brother.”

In total, SEBI has banned seven persons from accessing the market for 5 years, and 54 people have been barred for a year.

SEBI alleged that pump and dump was going in the shares of SBL. SEBI found that a coordinated scheme involving misleading YouTube videos and structured trading was going on to pump the share price. And then the promoters of the company offloaded their stakes to retail investors.

SEBI order says that false content on YouTube, and a paid marketing campaign was devised and used to attract investors. ​SEBI investigation period was from March 8, 2022, to November 30, 2022.  SEBI had received a complaint that  YouTube videos were being uploaded with false content to lure investors and a paid marketing campaign worth crores was undertaken to make the videos reach a wider audience. The complainant also provided links to YouTube videos, names of YouTube channels and dates when the videos were uploaded. SEBI had passed interim order in the same case in March 2023.

SEBI has alleged that Mishra, along with associates Dipak Dwivedi and Vivek Chauhan, created and promoted misleading YouTube videos to manipulate the share price of SBL. ​They promoted false information about the company.

SEBI has identified 5 YouTube channels — The Advisor, Midcap Calls, Profit Yatra, Moneywise, and India Bullish.

​SEBI alleged that these channels created false claims about SBL’s financial health and future prospects. The investigation revealed that Manish Mishra was the administrator of multiple YouTube channels involved in the promotion of SBL. ​Significant trading activity was observed among connected entities, with 45 percent of total volume attributed to structured trades. ​SEBI found there was a collusion.

SEBI alleged the involvement of the promoters of the SBL in the stock manipulation. SEBI found WhatsApp messages between Manish Mishra, Subhash Agarwal, and the promoters of SBL. Promoters used to trade immediately after release of YouTube Videos by associates of Manish Mishra.

SEBI found that the biggest beneficiary of the scheme was Gaurav Gupta, who earned Rs 18.33 crore, and Sadhna Bio Oils Pvt. Ltd earned Rs 9.41 crore. SEBI has ordered for the disgorgement of the illicit gains made by the individuals and entities.

SEBI has imposed a penalty of Rs 5 crore on Manish Mishra, Rs 2 crore each on Gaurav Gupta, Rakesh Kumar Gupta, Subhash Agarwal, Piyush Agarwal and Lokesh Shah. A penalty of Rs 1 crore has been imposed on Jatin Manubhai Shah.

An IPS officer involved in stock manipulation in the same matter had settled the case with SEBI.

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Shares of Suzlon Energy Ltd climbed 10 per cent in Friday’s trade after a couple of stock brokerages lifted their target prices on the stock post a solid March quarter earnings and optimistic management commentary. 

The stock climbed 13.57  per cent to hit a high of Rs 74.30 today, which pushed the market capitalisation of the company close to R 1,00,000 crore-mark. The Suzlon stock, which traded in a wide range of Rs 43.50-86.04 in the past one year, is up 44 per cent in the past three months and 55 per cent for the one-year period.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) highlighted the company’s strong performance, with deliveries and EBITDA beating estimates by 15 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively. The management remains optimistic, projecting at least a 60 per cent year-on-year improvement in deliveries, revenue, EBITDA, and adjusted PAT for FY26.

“This guidance aligns closely with our and the Street’s estimates and reflects strong management confidence in the sector,” MOFSL said.

Suzlon reported a staggering 364 per cent year-on-year jump in Q4 profit, supported by a 73.20 per cent increase in sales. In response, Nuvama Institutional Equities revised upward its FY26–27 estimates, factoring in 5–7 per cent higher sales and an 8–15 per cent improvement in EBITDA, alongside tax adjustments.

“We remain long-term positive on Suzlon Energy and retain a ‘HOLD’ rating with a revised target price of Rs 68, up from Rs 61, based on 40 times FY27E EPS (WTG + F&F EPS) plus DCF of O&M,” Nuvama said.

MOFSL set a higher target price of Rs 83, applying a 35 times P/E multiple to FY27E EPS—above Suzlon’s historical two-year forward average P/E of 27 times—reflecting improving execution and earnings visibility.

Although Suzlon did not provide explicit FY27 guidance, management expects India’s wind installations to grow steadily to 6GW in FY26, 7-8GW in FY27, and 9GW in FY28, up from 4.2GW in FY25.

Suzlon’s stock closed at Rs 65.44 on Thursday, marking a 16 per cent gain in the last month and a 44 per cent rise over the past year.

In Q4, the company posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,181 crore compared to Rs 254 crore a year earlier. This includes a deferred tax gain of Rs 600 crore. Sales surged to Rs 3,773.50 crore from Rs 2,179.20 crore.

The company executed 573MW in Q4FY25, exceeding the estimated 475MW. Its operating profit margin improved to 18.3 per cent against the estimated 14.7 per cent, driven by a higher Wind Turbine Generator (WTG) mix and operating leverage. This resulted in a 25 per cent beat to Nuvama’s PBT estimates despite elevated depreciation and interest costs related to the Renom acquisition.

Nuvama explained that a deferred tax asset creation of Rs 640 crore contributed to a 2.7 times PAT beat by advancing the benefit of lower tax incidence to FY25 instead of FY26, with minimal impact on FY27 estimates.

Order inflow in Q4FY25 was below 100MW due to cancellations and truncations, leaving Suzlon with a 5GW order book over 24 months, ensuring revenue visibility.

“Nuvama believes Suzlon Energy will continue to benefit from the growing share of FDRE/RTC/Hybrid technologies in government tenders. Suzlon also holds a dominant position in the Commercial & Industrial (C&I) segment, accounting for 55 per cent of its order book, as well as in the PSU segment. It benefits from a duopoly in EPC plus WTG capabilities, maintaining over 30 per cent market share overall,” the brokerage added.  

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India’s export sector faces challenges from rising geopolitical tensions, protectionist trade policies, and the rising threat of a global tariff war, the Reserve Bank of India warned in its annual report. However, the central bank said India’s active participation in 14 free trade agreements and six preferential trade agreements could help offset some of these headwinds.

India’s ongoing negotiations for new deals with key trading partners such as the US, Oman, Peru, and the European Union are expected to provide fresh impetus to trade growth, RBI said in its report for 2024-25. 

RBI also warned that rising input cost pressures for the manufacturing sector and subdued domestic demand posed risks to India’s economic growth.

Global merchandise trade volume is projected to contract 0.2% in 2025 under an adjusted scenario based on the tariff situation as of 14 April 2025, RBI said. But the US’s trade deal with the UK and its agreement with China to engage in discussions, both earlier this month, augur well for global trade, it said.

India’s trade talks with the US and the EU are in the final stages and likely to be signed next month. India recently finalised its trade agreement with the UK, concluding three years of negotiations that began in 2022. 

“(India’s trade agreements) will add one more factor to the RBI recommendations. With less than 20% of global trade taking place under free trade agreements, India needs to focus on competing in the broader international market,” said Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade negotiator and co-founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a trade research think tank.

“This requires deep reforms to domestic manufacturing, including lowering production and input costs, rationalizing import duties, reducing delays at ports, and ensuring easy access to loans for small and medium enterprises,” Srivastava added.

Widening trade deficit

India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $282.8 billion in 2024-25 from $241.1 billion a year ago, with oil accounting for 43.3% of that, commerce ministry data show. This means India spent much more on importing goods than it earned from exporting them during the year.

Among India’s major trading partners, the country’s trade deficit with China, Russia and the UAE widened in 2024-25, while surpluses improved in respect of the US, the Netherlands, and the UK.

Coal imports fell 20% year-on-year in 2024-25, driven by both a decline in volumes and lower import prices, per RBI’s annual report. 

The drop was primarily due to higher domestic coal production and reduced demand from thermal power plants for imported coal used in blending. As a result, India’s reliance on imported coal declined significantly, easing pressure on the country’s import bill and helping to moderate the overall merchandise trade deficit.

India’s trade talks with the US

India’s discussions with the US for a bilateral trade agreement is among the country’s most crucial international pacts in the works, but has been under the shadow of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announced last month.

On 28 May, however, a US federal court ruled that Trump’s tariffs and country-specific duties—such as the 26% levy on Indian goods—were not justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act since trade deficits do not qualify as an “unusual and extraordinary threat” under the law.

Indian trade experts are now urging New Delhi to reconsider its approach to ongoing trade negotiations with the US, and not allow for unilateral concessions.

India’s bilateral trade with the US climbed significantly in the just-ended financial year, to $131.84 billion in FY25 from $119.72 billion in FY24. 

This growth was driven by a sharp increase in Indian exports, which rose 11.6% to $86.51 billion from $77.52 billion over that period, while imports from the US grew at a slower pace of 7.42%, to $45.33 billion from $42.20 billion.

As a result, India’s trade surplus with the US widened by 16.6% to $41.18 billion in FY25, compared with $35.32 billion in the previous year.

India’s key imports and exports

India’s gold imports rose sharply in 2024–25, increasing 27.4% year-on-year to $58 billion. The rise was driven largely by a 30% surge in international gold prices, even as the overall import volume contracted, the RBI report noted.

India’s record trade deficit for November was revised downward to $32.8 billion from $37.8 billion after the government made a significant correction in gold import data, as Mint reported on 8 January. Gold imports for November were adjusted to $9.8 billion, a substantial reduction from the earlier estimate of $14.8 billion.

Electronic goods imports also grew significantly, expanding 12.4% to $98.7 billion during the year. Although exports of electronic goods remained strong, the trade deficit in the sector widened marginally to $60.1 billion in 2024–25. The electronic goods trade imbalance was primarily due to continued deficits in components and computer hardware and peripherals, as per the RBI report.

However, telecom instruments recorded a trade surplus of $3.7 billion, partly offsetting the overall gap.

Meanwhile, India’s net services exports reached $135.5 billion during April–December 2024, reflecting a robust growth rate of 12.9% year-on-year. This was largely supported by a 14.5% increase in software and business services exports, which together accounted for nearly 74% of the country’s total services exports.

Among other services, transportation receipts rose by 19.5% year-on-year, buoyed by higher global freight rates amid disruptions in key shipping routes. The average Baltic Dry Index—a benchmark for freight shipping prices—increased by 12% over the corresponding period of the previous year.

Exports of travel services also saw a modest rise of 5.5%, indicating increased spending by inbound tourists.

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