Day: May 20, 2025

ITC Q4 results preview: Tobacco-to-fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) conglomerate ITC is scheduled to release its fourth quarter (Q4FY25) results on Thursday, May 22. 

ITC Q4 results 2025: Profit estimates

Brokerages tracked by Business Standard in the fourth quarter (Q4FY25), expect ITC’s net profit to slip 5.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) on average, to ₹4,758.26 crore as compared to ₹5,020 crore. Sequentially, the profit after tax (PAT) is expected to slip by 12.2 per cent from ₹5,421 crore in Q3. 

ITC Q4 results 2025: Revenue expectations

The company’s revenue for the quarter under review is expected to gain 1.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, on average, to ₹16,588 crore as compared to ₹16,398 crore a year ago. The Y-o-Y rise in revenue is on the backdrop of growth in cigarettes, FMCG, paper and agri-business. However, on a Q-o-Q basis, the revenue is poised to decline 1.3 per cent. 

ITC Q4FY25: Key monitorables  

Demand outlook on rural against urban, competitive intensity; raw material trends, agri-business outlook will be closely monitored by investors and analysts.

Here’s how brokerages view ITC in Q4:

Morgan Stanley: According to the global brokerage, ITC’s cigarette business volume and value are expected to grow 4 per cent and 5 per cent Y-o-Y respectively, with cigarette’s Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) growth of 2 per cent Y-o-Y. Tobacco inflation is likely to weigh on margins. Besides, FMCG revenue growth is anticipated to grow 2 per cent Y-o-Y with a 6 per cent Ebit margin against 5.9 per cent in Q3F25. 

The company’s consolidated Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) for the quarter is expected to come in at ₹5,684.5 crore as against ₹6,162.6 crore a year ago and ₹5,828.4 crore in Q3FY25.  

Phillip Capital: Analysts at brokerage expect cigarette volume growth to moderate to 2 per cent in Q4. FMCG business is likely to deliver price-led mid-single digit growth on account of price hikes in atta, biscuits and snacks.  

Margin pressure is expected to continue in cigarettes due to inflation in leaf tobacco, and FMCG business due to high commodity inflation. Overall, expect the Ebitda margin is likely to stay flattish sequentially. 

Overall Ebitda for Q4 is pegged at ₹5,912.6 crore as compared to ₹6,162.6 crore a year ago. Ebitda margin is anticipated at 35.2 per cent as compared to 34.7 per cent in Q3 and 37.6 per cent a year ago.  

Axis Securities: The brokerage expects 1 per cent consolidated revenue growth on the back of cigarette business’ growth of 6 per cent Y-o-Y, FMCG’s growth at 4 per cent Y-o-Y, paper business’ growth of 5 per cent Y-o-Y and the agri segment’s growth of 3 per cent Y-o-Y. Consolidated revenue for the quarter is pegged at ₹16,547 crore as compared to ₹16,398 crore a year ago. 

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The ongoing rally in benchmark indices has not lifted all boats, as only a handful of stocks have recovered to their levels at last year’s market peak. 

While the Nifty 50 index is currently less than 5 per cent below its high and has recovered 14 per cent from its recent low of 21,750 levels, 41 stocks (82 per cent), are still below their closing prices when the index hit its peak on September 27, data shows. 

In the broader markets, too, over 72 per cent of the NSE 500 stocks are still trading below their closing prices from September 27. Additionally, one in four stocks, or 28 per cent, remain lower by more than 20 per cent from those closing levels, according to data compiled by Business Standard.

Less than 5 per cent of stocks have gained more than 25 per cent, the data shows.

Among the top 750 listed companies, analysts at SAMCO Securities said, stocks of only 30-35 companies have driven the recent rally, highlighting that the reality is this “isn’t a bull market – it’s more like a bull mirage.” 

The index may flirt with 25,000, but most stocks are still nursing their wounds, it said in a recent note. “This isn’t a rotation – it’s a massacre disguised as a milestone,” wrote Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities, in a recent note.

Within the NSE 500 pack, Sterling and Wilson Renewable (down 54 per cent), Adani Green Energy (down 51 per cent), Ola Electric Mobility (down 49 per cent), BrainBees Solutions (down 46 per cent) and IndusInd Bank (down 46 per cent) are the top losers since the market closing on September 26. They are yet to hit their peak levels hit late last year. 

Transformers & Rectifiers (up 67 per cent), BSE (98 per cent), and JSW Holdings (156 per cent) are top gainers along with defence public sector undertakings (PSUs) like Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (61 per cent), Garden Reach Shipbuilders (45 per cent) and Bharat Dynamics (62 per cent).

Momentum still prevails 

However, market experts are of the view that, while the rally may be led by few heavyweights, the bullish momentum still prevails from a long-term viewpoint. 

Indian equity market is showing clear signs of bullish momentum, according to Chandan Taparia, head of derivatives and technicals, wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL). He points to a sharp recovery of over 3,000 points from recent lows in the Nifty index, which is trading above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). 

This is a key technical signal that the market is gaining strength, Taparia said, adding, “This kind of recovery doesn’t happen in a bear market.”

Taparia noted that the current rally has been led by selective sectors, particularly banking and heavyweight counters like Reliance Industries (RIL). The Bank Nifty has surged to record highs, contributing significantly to the market’s gains, he added. 

He also highlighted the sustained Systematic Investment Plan (SIPs) inflows and aggressive buying by both Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs). “The FIIs’ long-short ratio has turned positive and SIP flows are at record highs, which underpins the bullish sentiment,” he said. 

While the market has been range-bound between 22,000 and 26,000 for several months, Taparia believes sector rotation, from defence and banking to metals and IT, will broaden the rally. We’re in a phase where selective buying is driving the index, and broader participation will follow, he said.

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Shares of telecom companies – Vodafone Idea (Voda Idea), Bharti Airtel and Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) (TTML) ended on a mixed note on Monday after the Supreme Court dismissed the petitions moved by them seeking a waiver on long-standing adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues. The telcos were looking for a relief related to payment of interest, penalty, and interest on penalty components as part of their AGR dues.   Voda Idea, in particular, witnessed a sharp fall and the stock ended nearly 9 per cent lower amid reports that the telecom firm flagged it may not be able to operate beyond FY26, without support from banks or the government. On Tuesday, in early trade, these 3 telecom shares were seen trading on a flat note – Voda Idea traded around ₹6.73 levels. Bharti Airtel was at ₹1,818, and TTML at 60.

Against this background, here’s a trading guide in Voda Idea, Bharti Airtel and TTML stocks. 

Vodafone Idea

 Current Price: ₹6.73 Downside Risk: 34.6% Support: ₹6.47; ₹5.96 Resistance: ₹7.25; ₹7.53 Vodafone Idea stock is seen trading with a negative bias on the daily and weekly chart, as the stock trades consistently below the key moving averages. The near-term bias for the stock is expected to remain tepid as long as the stock remains below ₹7.53, with near resistance seen at ₹7.25 levels. On the downside, ₹6,47 remains a crucial near-term support for Voda Idea. Break and sustained trade below the same can drag the stock to ₹5.97; below which a steeper fall towards ₹4.40 levels cannot be ruled out.

Bharti Airtel

 Current Price: ₹1,818 Upside Potential: 15.2% Support: ₹1,778; ₹1,760; ₹1,720 Resistance: ₹1,853; ₹1,901; ₹1,998 Bharti Airtel had recently hit a new life-time high at ₹1,917 on May 7. The stock has since slipped over 5 per cent, and is now seen seeking support around the daily trend line at ₹1,778 levels. The near-term bias for the stock is expected to remain favourable as long as the stock holds above this level. Below which, multiple supports for stock exist around ₹1,760 and ₹1,720 levels. On the other hand, the stock needs to move back above its 20-Day Moving Average (20-DMA), which stands at ₹1,853 to resume the upward trend. On the upside, the stock can potentially rally to ₹2,095 levels, with interim resistance likely around ₹1,901 and ₹1,998 levels.

TTML Current Price: ₹60 Upside Potential: 21.7% Support: ₹58.21; ₹54.40 Resistance: ₹62.70; ₹66.50 TTML stock recently witnessed a breakout on the daily chart as the stock closed consistently above the short-term moving averages and the trend line. Chart shows that the near-term bias for the stock is likely to remain positive above ₹58.21; below which significant support exists at ₹54.40. On the upside, the stock faces an overhead resistance at ₹62.72. Break and sustained trade above the same is the key for further gains. The stock can potentially rally to ₹73 levels, with some resistance likely around ₹66.50.

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