Vodafone Idea shares sink 10% after SC ‘dismisses’ plea in AGR case

Shares of Vodafone Idea saw a sharp fall in trade on Monday, May 19, 2025. The decline in the share price of the telecom company came after the Supreme Court rejected Vodafone Idea’s plea against the Government order to not waive off or provide relief in adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues. 

Vodafone Idea shares dropped 9.9 per cent to ₹6.64 per share on the BSE in the intraday trade, following the development. At 1:30 PM, Vodafone Idea stock was trading over 8 per cent lower at ₹6.76  per share. 

Around 125.98 million shares have changed hands on Vodafone Idea counter, so far, on the BSE. This is higher than the stock’s two-week average volume of 64.94 million shares on the stock exchange.  Shares of Bharti Airtel were trading flat, while those of Indus Towers declined 3.6 per cent.

Supreme Court rejects Voda Idea’s plea

The Supreme Court, on Monday, dismissed writ petitions filed by Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel, asking the Court to direct the Government to exempt interests and penalties on AGR dues.  According to Bar and Bench, the Supreme Court called the petition ‘shocking’ and ‘misconceived’. 

Vodafone Idea News

Earlier, news agency Reuters reported that Vodafone Idea had approached the Supreme Court, filing a case against the Government’s order rejecting the telecom’s plea to waive off more than $5 billion in dues.

As per the documents reviewed by Reuters, Vodafone Idea said its “survival remains at risk” without the government support. The company’s plea in the Supreme Court urges the SC to ask the government to act “in public interest”, given the “sensitive telecom sector”.

The Government, on its part, has said it “cannot consider Vodafone Idea’s request” to waive off interest and penalties on dues worth $9.76 billion that the company owes to the government, Reuters said.

Business Standard could not independently verify the authenticity of the report. According to Reuters, Vodafone Idea’s filing to the Supreme Court isn’t public yet. Vodafone Idea, too, has made no disclosure on the stock exchanges so far.

Vodafone Idea’s pending debt

According to Vodafone Idea’s Investor Presentation, the company owed ₹2,14,700 crore to the Government at the end of December 2024. Further, it owed ₹2,300 crore to banks and other financial institutions.

This presentation, however, was prepared before the government decided to increase its stake in the company to 48.99 per cent from 22.6 per cent by converting dues worth Rs 36,950 crore into VIL’s equity. 

The debt of Rs 36,950 crore comprised certain spectrum dues payable during FY 2026 to FY 2028. VIL completed the allotment of shares to the government in April 2025. 

Vodafone Idea 5G roll out in Delhi

On May 15, Vodafone Idea launched its high-speed 5G services in Delhi NCR. The 5G roll out in the capital region follows similar expansion in Mumbai, Chandigarh, and Patna as part of the company’s initial phase of the roll out.

Vodafone Idea said it is all set to roll out 5G in all 17 priority circles, where it has acquired 5G spectrum, by August this year.

About Vodafone Idea

Vodafone Idea is a telecom services providing company, having a history of over three decades in operations. The company has over 200 million customers in India, with more than 95 per cent district distribution coverage. Vodafone Idea serves customers across 728,000 retailers and 2,400 branded stores.

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LIC portfolio recovers ₹1.8 trillion amid market rebound from April lows

Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), India’s largest domestic institutional investor, has seen the value of its portfolio rise nearly ₹1.8 trillion as the market staged a recovery from its April 2025 lows. 

From ₹13.65 trillion as on April 7, 2025 when the markets hit their recent low, the value of LIC’s well-diversified 206-stock portfolio has risen to ₹15.43 trillion as on May 16, 2025, marking ₹1.78 trillion crore mark-to-market gain. The public sector insurer’s stake in 203 companies was valued at Rs 16.63 trillion as on September 30, 2024, data shows.

The benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, meanwhile, have rallied 13 per cent from their low touched on April 7, 2025. 

The gain calculation in LIC’s portfolio compares changes in value between April 7, 2025 and May 16, 2025 in NSE 500 stocks where LIC holds over 1 per cent stake as per shareholding pattern data on March 31, 2025. 

RIL, ITC among key gainers

LIC’s top equity holding in terms of value, Reliance Industries (RIL), has been one of the biggest contributors in its portfolio, with the stock’s 25 per cent surge adding ₹26,515 crore in value.

ITC, in which LIC held the highest holding in terms of percentage terms, has seen ₹5,759 crore value addition. LIC held 15.52 per cent stake in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) company at the end of the March 2025 quarter. 

A significant part of the appreciation came from over 25 per cent rally in the share prices of Mahindra & Mahindra (₹5,801 crore), Adani Ports and Economic Zone (₹5,192 crore), Tech Mahindra (₹3,267 crore), Jio Financial Services (₹2,472 crore), Hindustan Aeronautics (₹2,036 crore), Tata Motors (₹1,750 crore) and Bharat Electronics (₹1,268 crore). These stocks have accounted for 12 per cent of LIC’s total value appreciation.

Investor’s focus on large-cap stocks in the last few weeks, according to G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, was driven by the need for safety amid turbulent times. This, he believes, could change soon. 

“In the medium-term, beyond one or two quarters, there is a possibility of the large-cap segment coming under pressure. With substantial moderation in trade war between the US and China and geopolitical tensions abating, investors may choose to allocate more to the small-and midcap segments as risk-on sentiment gathers steam,” he said.

Meanwhile, top 10 public sector undertakings (PSUs) contributed ₹14,989 crore in this portfolio value surge. Defence sector stocks Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Electronics, Bharat Dynamics and Cochin Shipyard have seen their market value appreciate in the range of 28 per cent to 52 per cent between April 7 and May 16, data shows. 

Upside triggers 

At a broader level, the rebound in the Indian equity markets has been led by positive signals from the US regarding a potential trade agreement with India amid de-escalation of geopolitical conflict between India and Pakistan. This brought back foreign institutional investors (FII) flows back to Indian shores.

FIIs who were sellers in the first three months of 2025 having sold equity for Rs 1.16 trillion during this period turned buyers in April with a buy figure of Rs 4,243 crore. This change in FII strategy from selling to buying accelerated in May with a big buying of Rs 27,451 crore through 16th May. 

“At 23x one-year forward earnings, Nifty is not cheap. Earnings growth has disappointed, and the economy is seeing a cyclical slowdown. Given that the economy has a chance of accelerating and we might enter an earnings upgrade cycle next year, investment in equities merits caution,” said R Venkataraman, managing director at IIFL Capital.

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IndiGo to announce Q4 results, dividend on May 21; here’s what to expect

IndiGo Q4 results 2025: InterGlobe Aviation-owned IndiGo is set to report its March 2025 (Q4FY25) results this week. Analysts predict the budget airline to report robust revenue growth on higher passenger load factor and better yields.   

IndiGo Q4 results 2025 date:

IndiGo will report its Q4 results on Wednesday, May 21, 2025. 

“A meeting of the Board of Directors is scheduled to be held on Wednesday, May 21, 2025, inter-alia, to consider and approve the Audited (standalone & consolidated) Financial Results of the Company for the quarter and financial year ended March 31, 2025,” IndiGo said in a stock exchange filing.

IndiGo dividend news:

Apart from the announcement of the financial results, InterGlobe Aviation said its Board will consider dividend payout for IndiGo shareholders on May 21. 

“We wish to inform that the Board of Directors of the Company, at its meeting scheduled to be held on Wednesday, May 21, 2025, shall, inter alia, consider the recommendation of dividend, if any, for the financial year ended March 31, 2025,” it said. 

IndiGo Q4 results 2025 expectations:

Nuvama Institutional Equities

Analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities expect IndiGo to report an 18-per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in net profit. It pegs IndiGo Q4FY25 net profit at ₹2,241.6 crore, up from ₹1,894.8 crore seen in Q4FY24.

On a sequential basis, however, this would mean an 8 per cent drop in profit from ₹2,448.8 crore. 

Operationally, the brokerage sees IndiGo’s Q4 revenue surging 20 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹21,373.8 crore from ₹17,825.3 crore. EBITDAR (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortization, and rent), meanwhile, is seen climbing 34 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹5,898.6 crore. 

“We expect Q4FY25 EBITDAR to grow by 34 per cent Y-o-Y on improvement in yields by 1 per cent, higher revenue passenger kilometer (RPKMs) by 23 per cent due to a 17-per cent increase in revenue passengers and 6 per cent lower fuel cost per available seat kilometer (CASK),” it said.

On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, however, revenue and EBITDAR are expected to fall 3 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively. 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Contrary to Nuvama, Motilal Oswal analysts expect IndiGo’s Q4FY25 net profit to fall to ₹1,330 crore amid lower air fares in the March quarter. 

According to the brokerage’s database, IndiGo’s average fare in Q4FY25 was down 13 per cent Q-o-Q at ₹5,887 on one-month forward bookings, while the same was down 4 per cent Q-o-Q at ₹6,402 on 15-day forward bookings. 

It expects EBITDAR to rise marginally to ₹4,630 crore, and Ebitda to stay flat at ₹3,880 crore vs ₹3,980 crore Y-o-Y.

Motilal Oswal expects IndiGo’s Ebitda margin to contract to 17 per cent in Q4FY25 vs 22.4 per cent in Q4FY24 and 23.3 per cent in Q3FY25. 

Nonetheless, revenue is seen rising 27.5 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹22,720 crore. Sequentially, it would be flat compared to a revenue of ₹22,110.7 crore seen in Q3FY25. 

It projects ASK growth at 20% per cent Y-o-Y, passenger load factor (PLF) at 90.8 per cent (up from 86.2 per cent in Q4FY24), and RPK growth at 26 per cent Y-o-Y. 

“Outlook on P&W engine-fitted aircraft (being grounded in CY25) is a key monitorable. Further, the commentary on impending competition would be keenly monitored,” the brokerage said.

ICICI Securities

This brokerage, too, expects IndiGo’s ASK (available seat kilometers) to rise 20 per cent Y-o-Y and 2.4 per cent Q-o-Q to 41.8 billion. With passenger count at 31.5 million, up 18 per cent Y-o-Y/1.3 per cent Q-o-Q, it sees RASK at ₹5.12, flat Y-o-Y. 

Adjusting for fuel expenses (CASK at ₹4.74), net profit is seen at 2,330.4 crore, up 23 per cent Y-o-Y. 

IndiGo share price 

Ahead of the result announcement, IndiGo share price hit a record high of ₹5.665.65 per share on the BSE on Monday, May 19, 2025. IndiGo shares have surged 22.2 per cent so far this calendar year, as against around 4 per cent rise in the benchmark BSE Sensex index. 

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