Day: April 14, 2025

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This helps protect investors from unregulated or biased advice.

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Wall Street share futures rallied in Asia on Monday after the White House exempted smartphones and computers from “reciprocal” US tariffs, though gains were limited as President Donald Trump warned levies were still likely at some point.

On the face of it, the exemption of 20 product types accounting for 23 per cent of US imports from China, was a boon to manufacturers. However, the off-again, on-again policy gyrations left investors confused and analysts bearish on the long run.

“The post-Liberation Day back-pedalling has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan.

“A 10 per cent universal tax is still a very large shock and the huge 145 per cent tax on China is prohibitive,” he added. “You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect damage everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60 per cent likelihood of a US/global recession.”

After an initial jump, S&P 500 futures pared gains to be up 0.8 per cent, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.25 per cent. The S&P 500 rallied 5.7 per cent last week, but was still more than 5 per cent below where it was before the reciprocal tariffs were first announced in early April.

The market also has more earnings to weather this week with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup among the big banks reporting. Numbers from chipmaker TSMC will be a highlight given Trump’s plan to investigate the entire global semiconductor supply chain.

Data out this week includes US retail sales and Chinese gross domestic product, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Wednesday, when he will almost certainly be quizzed on the prospect of rate cuts and the recent stress in the Treasury market.

Early on Monday, there was scant sign of any recovery in bonds with 10-year yields at 4.49 per cent, having seen the largest weekly rise in borrowing costs in decades.

Not so safe

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6 per cent, having shed more than 4 per cent last week. Japan’s Nikkei added 2.0 per cent, after fluctuating wildly in recent days in response to the changing tariff news.

Japanese officials are gearing up for trade negotiations with the United States that will likely touch on currency policy, with some officials privately bracing for Washington to call on Tokyo to prop up the yen.

They might not need to work too hard given the dollar had taken a beating from worries the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy was shaking investor faith in US assets.

“The key questions are around the indirect damage done through generating extreme uncertainty around the policy and economic outlook, the ongoing dislocations in the Treasury market and, ultimately, undermining confidence in US institutions and asset markets,” said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

“It is no longer hyperbole to say that the dollar’s reserve status and broader dominant role is at least somewhat in question, even if the inertia and network effects that have kept the dollar on top for decades are not going away any time soon.”

The dollar was a shade firmer at 143.72 yen after hitting a six-month low at 142.05 last week. It was pinned at 0.8176 Swiss francs, having shed more than 5 per cent last week to the lowest in a decade.

The euro held at $1.1334, just short of a three-year top of $1.1474. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut rates by a quarter point to 2.25 per cent.

Canada’s central bank also meets this week, and markets imply around a one-in-three chance it might trim its 2.75 per cent rates.

In commodity markets, global uncertainty was proving a windfall to gold prices which surged to all-time peaks at $3,245.28 last week. The metal was trading at $3,218 an ounce on Monday.

Oil has had a much tougher time amid fears of a global economic slowdown and increased supply from OPEC, though it found some support from the risk of an end to Iran’s exports. 

Brent was down 9 cents at $64.67 a barrel, while US crude eased 7 cents to $61.44 per barrel.

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Nithin Kamath has advice for investors: “Take a break from trading and recharge”. The co-founder and chief executive officer of Zerodha said this on X amid market volatility driven by global uncertainties, including Donald Trump’s now-suspended tariff announcements. 

Kamath’s advice on Wednesday came when domestic benchmark indices extended their losses, despite the Reserve Bank of India cutting the repo rate and changing its monetary stance. Indian equity indices ended on a negative note with Nifty down 136.70 points at 22,400. BSE Sensex closed 379.93 points down at 73,847.15. Whereas today Sensex rises 1310 pts, Nifty above 22800. 

Indian stock markets have as of April 9 dropped over 15 per cent from the 52-week seen in September 2024. The Wednesday slump wiped out gains made by retail investors during the post-pandemic market rally. Markets rebounded on Friday, with the Sensex gaining 1,300 and the Nifty settling at 22,828.55.

“Over the next 10 days, there are only 4 trading days. It’s not a bad idea to take a break from trading and recharge,” Kamath posted on X. 

Kamath said the market is not suited for active trading. He referred to materials from Zerodhaversity, his stockbroking firm’s investor education platform, to stress the need for mental preparedness and situational awareness in trading “It is vital for one’s survival to know when to stay out of the markets. Trading profitably requires that you monitor the market moods and your psychological moods. When either one is not conducive to trading, it’s best to stand aside and wait for the situation to change.”

Caution against panic and poor decisions 

Kamath warned that many investors who entered the market after the pandemic may not have faced a downturn of this nature before. This unfamiliarity can lead to anxiety and poor risk management, he said. 

He cautioned against assuming that this downturn is simply a buying opportunity. “By the way, if markets fall sharply, investors might stay out of the market for years—just like they did after 2008,” he noted.  

Why Kamath is recommending caution 

Kamath believes inexperienced investors are at risk in such volatile conditions. He reckons that taking a pause now could help avoid lasting financial damage. His message echoes sentiments from an old podcast by Jerry Parker, founder of Chesapeake Capital Corporation and a known ‘Turtle Trader’, which Kamath cited in his post.

Here are the key takeaways from the podcast that Kamath highlighted:

Live to play another day 

Kamath referred to legendary trader Jerry Parker’s rule on cutting positions when losses begin to mount. 

“This is a Turtle Rule. When you have a drawdown, you reduce your positions twice as fast as the drawdown. So, if you’re down 10%, you should reduce your positions by 20%,” Parker said in the clip shared by Kamath. 

According to Parker, many traders hold on to losing stocks hoping they’ll recover, while booking quick profits out of fear they’ll vanish. “When you have a loss, you’re thinking, I’m hopeful that it’s going to come back… but that’s when you should be fearful,” he said. On the other hand, he added, “when we have big profits, we’re very fearful it’s going to turn into a smaller profit, but that’s when we should be very hopeful.”

Avoid self-inflicted mistakes 

Kamath echoed Parker’s view that over-trading and not following a disciplined strategy are common traps. “Most of that was all self-induced anxiety,” Parker said in the podcast. “The two biggest mistakes we make? Over-trading and not following your system.”

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Stock markets will be driven by further developments on the US-China tariff war front along with quarterly earnings announcements from IT majors Wipro and Infosys in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said.

Global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate market movement this week, experts noted.

Equity markets would remain closed on Monday for Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and on Friday due to Good Friday.

“The upcoming week is set to be volatile for global and Indian markets, as the trade war between China and the US intensified with both countries imposing tariffs on each other, causing turmoil in the markets. Domestically, WPI and Consumer Price Index inflation data are set to be released. On the global front major macroeconomic data of US, UK and China is set to be released,” Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, said.

US President Donald Trump unveiled a massive tariff plan in the first week of April. The White House later announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries except China, which in turn decided to impose 125 per cent tariffs on US imports.

China on Friday upped its additional tariff on US goods to 125 per cent, retaliating to America’s 145 per cent levy.

China, however, left the door open for talks between the world’s two top economies as the tariff war between them continued.

“The upcoming holiday-shortened week will remain sensitive to further developments on the US-China tariff front. On the domestic side, the spotlight will also be on corporate earnings, with heavyweights such as Wipro and Infosys from the IT sector, along with private banking majors HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, scheduled to announce their quarterly results,” Ajit Mishra SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

Equity benchmarks closed last week on a subdued note, ending with modest losses amid heightened volatility.

Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex declined 207.43 points or 0.27 per cent. The NSE Nifty dipped 75.9 points or 0.33 per cent.

The US, on April 2, announced an additional 26 per cent tariff on Indian goods entering the US. But on April 9, the Trump administration announced the suspension of these on India for 90 days until July 9 this year. However, the 10 per cent baseline tariff imposed on the countries will continue to remain in place.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, “We expect the Indian markets to remain volatile, tracking global market cues, developments on the US tariffs and the Q4 corporate earnings announcements.

Market sentiment will also be guided by the rupee-dollar trend and movement in the global oil benchmark Brent crude.

“This week brings a host of significant economic data releases from major global economies, which are expected to guide market sentiment and influence monetary policy expectations,” as per a note by Bajaj Broking Research.

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