Day: February 13, 2025

Shares of state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd have lost 37% of their value over the last seven months. But the Dalal Street has a consensus target price of ₹5340 per piece, implying a 50% upside from the current market price.

The stock of defence PSU major ended Wednesday’s (February 12) session at ₹3594.15 on the NSE, down 1.5% from previous day close. The stock has given 14% of its value in 2025 so far, after consistently outperforming in the last five years through 2024.

The state-owned defence major on February 12 reported 14% jump in consolidated net profit at ₹1,440 crore for the quarter ended December 2024, driven by sustained demand for its aircraft from the defence ministry. It reported a consolidated net profit of ₹1,261 crore in the year-ago period. The defence PSU’s revenue from operations surged 15% to ₹6957 crore during the quarter.

JP Morgan, which has an “overweight” rating on the stock with a twelve-month target price of ₹4958 observed that the company’s order inflow has been strong through nine-months ended December 2024. “The nine months order inflow of ₹56,100 crore is healthy, driven by orders for Sukhoi Engines & Aircrafts. The order book in Q3FY25 stands at Rs1.3 lakh crore, up 58% year-on-year,” wrote JP Morgan in an investor note. The brokerage further said that the company expects orders of Rs1.65 lakh crore (additional LCAs and LCHs), underlining significant opportunity ahead.

Of the 16 analysts who track the stock on Bloomberg, 15 have “Buy” ratings on the sock, with a single “Sell” rating. While Antique Stock Broking has set the highest target price at ₹7089, about eight of them have a target price ranging from ₹5300 to ₹5814 per share.

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As Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet tech billionaire Elon Musk during his trip to the US this week, the expansion of Starlink satellite internet to India is likely to be on the agenda apart from topics such as trade and Artificial Intelligence, media reports say. 

In addition, Tesla’s India entry is also likely to be a part of Modi’s discussions with Musk, who is overseeing the ‘Department of Government Efficiency’, or (DOGE), CNBC reported citing a government official.

Modi, who has arrived in the US, will meet President Donald Trump on Thursday with discussions on trade and tariff concessions expected to be high on the agenda.

Later, Musk is likely to hold one-on-one talks with Modi. Musk-owned Starlink’s plans to launch satellite broadband services has been long-delayed in India owing to regulatory hurdles and security concerns. Currently, its India entry application is under government review. 

“Musk is agreeable to give assurances on India security concerns, which includes storing data locally,” Reuters reported citing a source.

Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia had last year confirmed that Starlink is in the process of obtaining the necessary security clearance, which requires it to satisfy the government that the company processes and stores all data locally in India, and that its satellite signals are encrypted and 100 per cent secure.

It is expected to get a permit should it satisfy authorities of the conditions laid out, the telecom minister had stated.

If introduced in India, Starlink will clash with Mukesh Ambani’s Jio. Starlink’s plans, meanwhile, got a major boost last month when New Delhi said it wouldn’t auction spectrum for satellite broadband but rather award it administratively – just as Elon Musk wanted. This, even as rival Ambani had wanted an auction.

Musk in December said Starlink satellite internet was inactive in India after authorities seized two of the company’s devices, one in an armed conflict zone and another in a drug smuggling bust.

Tesla plans

Musk has been a critic of India’s high import taxes on electric cars and his team has over the years held repeated discussions on setting up a local manufacturing base there, but no such plans have yet materialised.

While Tesla has not publicly shared a plan to build a factory in India, and has instead continued to focus on China, India has become a big growth market for US tech. Tesla cars have also elicited significant demand from Indian auto enthusiasts. 

Media reports said it was not clear if Tesla’s planned entry into India would come up during the meeting, though increased sourcing of electric vehicle components from India is likely to be among the talking points.

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Stock analysts are mixed on Vodafone Idea Ltd after the telecom operator’s less-than-expected December quarter results. Nomura India still sees 37 per cent upside on the counter, while MOFSL downgraded the stock to ‘Sell’ and sees it falling to Rs 5 level. Kotak Institutional Equities also has a ‘Sell’ recommendation and a fair value target of Rs 7 on the stock. ICICI Securities, with ‘Hold’ rating, cut its FY25–27 Ebitda estimates by 6-10 per cent but raised its target price on VIL to Rs 8 from Rs 7earlier, saying securing debt funding and AGR resolution are key events to watch out.

Explaining this, Nomura India said the outlook for VIL remains hinged on VIL closing its debt raise soon, which is critically essential for VIL to be able to invest in networks and return to a modest subscriber growth path. It retained its ‘Buy rating’ with a revised target of Rs 12 (INR14 earlier) on lower estimates.

“With GoI prepayments commencing from 1HFY26 and no break-through on debt raise, we believe VIL is likely to face a cash shortfall and may not be able to meet the capex guidance of Rs 50,000-55,000 crore by FY27. We cut our FY26-27 Ebitda by 7-8 per cent on lower subscriber and ARPU assumptions. We downgrade VIL to Sell (from Neutral) with a revised target of Rs 5, based on DCF implied 14 times FY27E EV/Ebitda.

Vodafone Idea shares were trading 3.92 per cent higher at Rs 8.74 on BSE. The Rs 12 target suggests a potential 37 per cent upside but the Rs 5 target suggests 43 per cent downside on the counter.

The Vodafone Idea management indicated that the next tariff hike is likely to follow a 9-12 month cycle, i.e. likely before June 2025. The impact of subscriber loss to BSNL has completely reversed with net port-ins from BSNL now positive and rising. VIL has also recorded positive VLR subscribers adds in 11 circles over December 2024-January 2025.

Vodafone Idea noted that relief measures by the government allow for equity conversion of entire upcoming dues and not just the deferred portion of dues, i.e., conversion of dues can potentially be Rs 29,000 crore in FY26 and Rs 43,000 crore in FY27. It suggested that the 5G launch will commence from March 2025 in Mumbai, followed by Delhi, Bangalore, Chandigarh and Patna in April 2025.

Debt raise has been facing some delays as banks are seeking clarity on the resolution of AGR dues by the government, Nomura India reported Vodafone Idea as saying.

“We cut FY25-27 Ebitda by 2-3 per cent on factoring modestly lower subscribers/ARPU; we factor in 13 per cent growth of ARPU for FY26-27F, with ARPUs rising from Rs 158 in FY25F to Rs 179 in FY26 and Rs 202 in FY27. We expect the pace of subscriber loss to decline in FY26F and VIL to return to modest growth for subscribers in FY27F, driven by investments for expanding 4G population coverage and 5G roll out,” it said.

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