Banks urge RBI to inject liquidity via foreign-exchange swaps amid crunch

Some big lenders in India have asked the central bank to inject liquidity using foreign-exchange swaps as short-term currency financing costs surged to a four-year high, according to people familiar with the matter. 

In recent informal interactions, some lenders asked the Reserve Bank of India to consider using FX swaps, where the parties simultaneously agree to exchange currencies in the spot market and reverse the transaction at a future date, the people said. Such operations could effectively inject rupee liquidity into the financial markets. 

The requests came after an indicator for front-end currency borrowing costs surged on Monday, the people added, asking not to be identified as the engagements were private. A combination of seasonal factors and a surge in global investors’ demand for the rupee as they chase local initial public offerings had contributed to the funding squeeze.  

The higher financing costs are posing a challenge for the RBI to support an economy that’s witnessing a slowdown in manufacturing activities. While it is unclear whether the RBI would agree to the requests, the side effects of such an operation might add pressure on the rupee, which has already been setting new record lows since December.

The central bank didn’t respond to emailed requests for comment. 

On Monday, the rupee’s tomorrow-next forward points surged to a level unseen since early 2021. Meanwhile, the one-year implied forward yields on the rupee hovered near two-year highs, reflecting high costs of guarding against rupee volatility. 

The jump is being driven by an ongoing cash crunch amid lenders’ efforts to facilitate client access to a recent flurry of local share sales, the people said. Banks have also been reluctant to part with rupees and swap them for dollars due to low liquidity, exacerbating the funding squeeze, they said. Analysts have predicted sustained tightness going ahead.  

The swaps would entail the RBI purchasing dollars from banks against the rupee while contracting to sell the greenback at a future date. When the central bank buys dollars, it injects an equivalent quantum of rupee liquidity.  

Such operations would be expected to bring down elevated funding costs. And by acquiring dollars over the first leg of the swap, the central bank would bolster its foreign-exchange reserves, which have dropped to a seven-month low amid interventions to shield the rupee from excess volatility.  

The last time the RBI carried out such a long-term swap was in April 2019 for a tenure of three years and an amount of $5 billion.

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Indian manufacturing ends strong 2024 with a soft note, Dec PMI at 56.4

The manufacturing activity in India registered its weakest growth of 2024 in December as the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 56.4, down from 56.5 in November. The data indicated softer demand in the sector despite easing cost pressures and strong jobs growth. 

The HSBC Final India Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, showed that while the headline figure was down from 56.5 in November, but remained above its long-run average of 54.1 thereby signalling a robust rate of growth. Both output and new orders – a key gauge for demand – continued to rise last month but the improvement slowed. On employment front, the data indicated that the rate of job creation quickened to the fastest in four months. Around one-in-ten companies recruited extra staff, while fewer than 2 per cent of firms shed jobs.

“India’s manufacturing activity ended a strong 2024 with a soft note amidst more signs of a slowing trend, albeit moderate, in the industrial sector. The rate of expansion in new orders was the slowest in the year, suggesting weaker growth in future production. That said, there was some uplift in the growth of new export orders, which rose at the fastest pace since July. The rise in input prices eased slightly, wrapping up the year when Indian manufacturers felt the strain of sharp cost pressures,” said Ines Lam, Economist at HSBC. Manufacturing PMI declined to a joint 11-month low of 56.5 in November, down from 57.5 in October, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing growth. Despite this deceleration, the PMI remained above the 50-mark, signifying continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.

The slowdown was attributed to increased competition and rising price pressures, with input cost inflation reaching its highest since July. Notably, there was a significant rise in selling prices, marking the steepest increase since October 2013. 

What is Manufacturing PMI?

Manufacturing PMI data is an economic indicator that measures the activity level in the manufacturing sector. It is based on a survey of purchasing managers across manufacturing industries and provides insights into business conditions, including production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times, and inventory levels.  

This data is closely watched as an early indicator of economic health, helping businesses, policymakers, and investors gauge trends in the manufacturing industry and overall economy.

GDP slowdown

India’s GDP growth slowed to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter of FY25, marking its weakest performance in nearly two years. Key factors include sluggish manufacturing growth (2.2 per cent) and reduced private consumption due to high inflation and borrowing costs. Headline inflation surpassed the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4-6 per cent target, eroding purchasing power. Government spending also dipped amid election-year fiscal constraints. 

Urban demand softened due to elevated food prices and weak wage growth, though rural consumption showed signs of recovery. Despite these headwinds, agriculture grew 3.5 per cent, rebounding from a prolonged slowdown.

The RBI revised its annual growth forecast to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent, signaling caution over economic momentum. Policymakers face challenges balancing inflation control and demand stimulation.

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Textile exports increase 7% to $21.35 bn in Apr-Oct of FY25: Govt

India’s textiles and apparel exports, including handicrafts, grew 7 per cent during the April-October period to USD 21.35 billion, the government said on Thursday.

The outbound shipments from the sector stood at USD 20 billion in the same period of the previous financial year, FY 2023-24.

“The Ready Made Garments (RMG) category with exports of USD 8,733 million has the largest share (41 per cent) in the total exports (USD 21,358 million) during the period of April-October of FY 2024-25, followed by Cotton Textiles (33 per cent, USD 7,082 million), Man-Made Textiles (15 per cent, USD 3,105 million),” the Textiles Ministry said.

Growth of exports was observed in all principal commodities during April-October of FY 2024-25, as compared to corresponding period of FY 2023-24, except wool and handloom, which declined by 19 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively, the Ministry said.

Meanwhile, the overall import of textiles and apparel including handicrafts declined 1 per cent during the April-October period of FY 2024-25 (USD 5,425 million), compared to the same period of FY 2023-24 (USD 5,464 million).

The man-made textiles category with import of USD 1,859 million has the largest share (34 per cent) in the total imports (USD 5,425 million) during the period of April-October of FY 2024-25, as there is a demand-supply gap in this sector, the Ministry said.

“Growth of imports is observed majorly in Cotton Textiles mainly on account of import of long staple cotton fibre and such trends of import indicates an increase in production capacity of the country amidst rising consumption and self-reliance,” the official statement said.

During FY 2023-24, the import of textiles and apparel products by India stood at USD 8.94 billion, down by nearly 15 per cent in comparison to USD 10.48 billion in FY 2022-23.

India was the sixth largest exporter of textiles and apparel in the world in 2023. The share of textile and apparel (T&A) including handicrafts in India’s total exports stood at 8.21 per cent in FY 2023-24.

“Our country has a share of 3.9 per cent of the global trade in textiles and apparel. Major textile and apparel export destinations for India are USA and EU and with around 47 per cent share in total textile and apparel exports.

“India is a major textile and apparel exporting country and enjoys trade surplus. Bulk of import takes place for re-export or for industry requirement of raw material,” the Textile Ministry said.

It is noteworthy that export is a function of demand and supply and depends on factors such as global demand, internal consumption and demand, order flow, logistics etc.

Exports in FY 2024 were initially low mainly due to the geopolitical crises around the Red Sea, which affected export movement during January, February and March 2024, the Ministry stated.

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