Benchmark indices saw wild swings on Monday to end what was a dismal quarter on Wall Street a day ahead of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Dow Jones recovered 900 points from the day’s low to end with gains of over 400 points. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also clawed back their losses from earlier in the session. Investors seeking safer bets led to a surge in Dow constituents Coca-Cola and Walmart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
US shares saw their worst quarter compared to the rest of the world since 2009.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Energy producers joined a rally in oil as Trump suggested the US may work to curtail crude shipments from Russia. A gauge of the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d megacaps extended a quarterly rout to 16% amid lingering concerns of an artificial-intelligence bubble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It was the first time since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 that bonds rose and stocks fell in a three-month period. The dollar, long a go-to hiding place during market selloffs, has not been acting as such lately. While the greenback saw a mild gain Monday, it suffered the worst start to a year since 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Trump administration\u2019s mixed messaging on what new tariffs will be unveiled Wednesday and how they\u2019ll be announced have traders flustered as they try to position around the biggest risk confronting the market in years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump\u2019s top spokesperson said the announcement would feature \u201ccountry-based\u201d tariffs, but added that the president is also \u201ccommitted\u201d to implementing sectoral duties at another time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cTariffs will likely continue to drive the market discussion,\u201d said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. \u201cWhether tariffs are more or less rigid than expected could go a long way toward shaping the market\u2019s near-term momentum.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.22%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%. Gold topped $3,100 for the first time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ed Yardeni of eponymous firm Yardeni Research cut his year-end estimate on the S&P 500 to 6,000 from 6,400, saying Trump\u2019s tariffs have heightened recession risks. The gauge close at 5,611.85 Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cA happy outcome would be that the US would negotiate tariff reductions, but that won\u2019t happen if the US slaps a 20% tariff on all imports across-the-board,\u201d Yardeni said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid all the concern about the economic impacts of tariffs, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.\u2019s David Kostin now expects the S&P 500 to end the year around 5,700 versus his previous estimate of 6,200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A stock-market signal is flashing a warning to investors hoping for a speedy recovery from this year\u2019s sharp equity selloff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The correlation between individual S&P 500 \u2014 measuring the degree to which they move in tandem \u2014 stands near the lowest level in 25 years even after rising this month, according to data compiled by independent strategist Jim Paulsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The S&P 500 briefly sank below the first ominous milestone traders were watching at the start of the session \u2014 5,504.65, the intraday low touched on March 13. But the broad equities benchmark quickly reclaimed that level. The question now is whether it stays there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Technical strategists also recommend keeping an eye on market breadth, looking for more evidence of washed-out conditions. A 10% or less reading in the percentage of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average would be \u201ca good sign of a capitulation,\u201d said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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