{"id":3187,"date":"2024-12-13T16:35:20","date_gmt":"2024-12-13T11:05:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eqwires.com\/tutorials\/?p=3187"},"modified":"2024-12-13T16:35:22","modified_gmt":"2024-12-13T11:05:22","slug":"rbi-repo-rate-cut-expectations-build-as-cpi-inflation-moderates-economists-expect-shallow-rate-cut-cycle-from-february","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eqwires.com\/tutorials\/rbi-repo-rate-cut-expectations-build-as-cpi-inflation-moderates-economists-expect-shallow-rate-cut-cycle-from-february\/","title":{"rendered":"RBI repo rate cut expectations build as CPI inflation moderates; Economists expect shallow rate-cut cycle from February"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p id=\"speakable-summary\">India\u2019s retail inflation in November aligned with market expectations and remained within the Reserve Bank of India\u2019s (RBI) tolerance band. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation moderated to 5.48% year-on-year (YoY), primarily driven by easing food prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CPI inflation\u00a0for December is projected to range between 5.3% and 5.4%, while economists estimate inflation for FY25 to average 4.8% \u2013 4.9%, with a gradual glide toward the RBI\u2019s 4% target by the second quarter of FY26.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The deceleration in inflation has fueled calls for monetary policy easing amid concerns over domestic economic growth. Analysts anticipate that the\u00a0RBI\u00a0could initiate a shallow rate-cut cycle in its February 2025 policy meeting, provided inflation continues to decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rate-Cut Prospects<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"speakable-summary\">Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist at\u00a0Emkay Global Financial Services\u00a0Ltd., emphasized that while the headline CPI trajectory aligns with the RBI\u2019s upwardly revised forecasts, this does not necessarily indicate a prolonged or deep rate-cut cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"speakable-summary\">\u201cThe policy trade-offs are getting acute with a tricky and small window of conventional rate cuts as global dynamics turn more fluid. Besides, mounting FX pressures and increasing cost of FX intervention will need to be weighed before deeply cutting rates ahead. We do not, for now, rule out a cut in February 2025, but would be more comfortable taking a firm call closer to the policy window, especially with a\u00a0new Governor\u00a0and MPC in place,\u201d Arora said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"speakable-summary\">Arora also highlighted the potential for unconventional easing measures, such as gradually relaxing regulatory lending norms to revitalize credit offtake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"speakable-summary\">Hitesh Suvarna of\u00a0JM Financial\u00a0anticipates that the next step in RBI\u2019s policy action will involve a rate cut, contingent on the continuation of the downward trend in inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"speakable-summary\">\u201cBy then, RBI would have also evaluated the impact of Trump\u2019s tariff policies. Other than growth and inflation dynamics, defending the currency is one of RBI&#8217;s main tasks hence in a scenario where USD is expected to strengthen, RBI would want to stretch its rate easing cycle. We expect a shallow rate cut cycle (50-75 bps) both in the US and in India,\u201d Suvarna said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Global and Domestic Policy Context<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Federal Reserve initiated its rate-cut cycle earlier this year, delivering cumulative reductions of 75 basis points and is widely expected to lower rates by an additional 25 basis points next week, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.25% \u2013 4.50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"speakable-summary\">Domestically, while the RBI has maintained policy rates to address high inflation, it shifted its monetary stance to \u2018neutral\u2019 during the October policy meeting and reduced the\u00a0Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)\u00a0by 50 basis points in December. This move is seen as paving the way for a potential repo rate cut in February 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"speakable-summary\">The upcoming changes in the\u00a0RBI\u2019s MPC composition\u00a0\u2014 marked by the induction of three new external members in October and\u00a0Sanjay Malhotra\u2019s appointment as the new Governor \u2014 along with a possible new Deputy Governor, are also expected to influence policy decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"speakable-summary\"><strong>Fiscal and Inflation Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Radhika Rao, Executive Director and Senior Economist at DBS Bank, noted that by February, the RBI will have access to November and December inflation data as well as the FY26 Budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She anticipates headline inflation to normalize as the effects of weather-related disruptions on food prices subside, with inflation stabilizing in the 4%\u20135% range. Additionally, she expects the FY26 Budget to underscore fiscal consolidation, aligning with the government\u2019s deficit target of -4.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe maintain our call for a 25 bps cut at the February meeting, with cumulative 75 bps cuts in this cycle, keeping an eye on the US dollar and dollar liquidity,\u201d Rao said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While easing inflation strengthens the case for monetary policy adjustments, the trajectory of rate cuts will hinge on both domestic and global factors, including currency stability and fiscal priorities. A cautious approach is expected, with February emerging as a pivotal juncture for policy decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eqwires.com\/tutorials\/who-is-the-best-sebi-registered-investment-advisor-in-i\">Eqwires Research Analyst<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-dark-gray-color has-text-color\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eqwires.com\/\">Top-notch SEBI registered research analyst<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-dark-gray-color has-text-color\"><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eqwires.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Best SEBI registered Intraday tips provider <\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-dark-gray-color has-text-color\"><a href=\"mailto:info@eqwires.com\"><strong>info@eqwires.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-dark-red-color has-text-color\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/eqwires\">Telegram&nbsp;<\/a>|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/eqwires\/\">Facebook&nbsp;<\/a>|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/instagram.com\/Eqwires\">Instagram<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-dark-red-color has-text-color\"><strong>Call: +91 9624421555 \/&nbsp;<em>+91 9624461555<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.eqwires.com\/\">www.eqwires.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India\u2019s retail inflation in November aligned with market expectations and remained within the Reserve Bank of India\u2019s (RBI) tolerance band. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation moderated to 5.48% year-on-year (YoY), primarily driven by easing food prices. CPI inflation\u00a0for December is projected to range between 5.3% and 5.4%, while economists estimate inflation for FY25 to average 4.8% \u2013 4.9%, with a gradual glide toward the RBI\u2019s 4% target by the second quarter of FY26. The &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eqwires.com\/tutorials\/rbi-repo-rate-cut-expectations-build-as-cpi-inflation-moderates-economists-expect-shallow-rate-cut-cycle-from-february\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;RBI repo rate cut expectations build as CPI inflation moderates; Economists expect shallow rate-cut cycle from February&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3188,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[201,172,136,138,134,164,217,368,139,140,324,106,272,266,98,72,97,184,73,268,135,137,133,330,104,141,299,161,160,159,74,75,210,158,166,311,228,227,103,254,102,224,257,298,300,101,105,301,165,327,329,76,77,78,79,247,365,308,361,363,215,216,174,80,81,99,218,82,340,339,320,183,168,167,170,251,83,84,85,86,87,108,88,202,155,154,273,89,100,90,91,92,93,94,95,236,255,385,232,231,250,96,3,260,252,248,249,322,107,192,220,360,275,223,156,157,341,246,238,207,177,176,175],"tags":[4,5,267,6,200,7,12,116,19,149,147,173,145,14,118,11,150,153,265,120,9,271,190,191,13,188,18,318,8,185,316,10,17,269,148,151,146,15,331,319,16,122,144,162,23,41,25,24,27,21,194,50,312,229,226,124,33,253,126,225,119,20,258,28,297,49,127,315,121,230,295,125,115,22,113,29,328,333,317,332,334,314,52,123,131,348,366,357,309,310,359,362,354,349,351,364,213,26,182,111,130,31,62,34,30,42,219,57,112,186,169,56,171,64,132,206,59,53,264,128,43,336,242,237,51,110,32,187,35,55,44,270,288,196,47,37,195,45,39,36,40,203,38,143,152,129,142,46,48,63,67,60,61,65,234,71,235,54,256,117,386,233,68,193,241,335,205,261,263,209,262,337,244,66,204,70,109,259,221,291,274,222,163,69,58,342,239,208,114,178,181,179,180,290],"class_list":["post-3187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-accurate-stock-tips-provider-in-india","category-best-advisory-service-provider-for-beginners","category-best-bank-nifty-future-calls","category-best-bank-nifty-options-tips-provider","category-best-bank-nifty-trading-tips-provider","category-best-equity-advisory-services-in-india","category-best-ethical-investment-advisor-in-india","category-best-financial-advisor-websites-in-india","category-best-index-future-services","category-best-index-options-services","category-best-intraday-advisor-in-india","category-best-intraday-call-provider","category-best-intraday-jackpot-calls","category-best-intraday-research-company","category-best-intraday-tips-for-tomorrow","category-best-intraday-tips-provider-in-india","category-best-intraday-tips-site","category-best-intraday-tips-website-in-india","category-best-investment-advisor-in-india","category-best-jackpot-tips-provider","category-best-nifty-future-calls","category-best-nifty-options-tips-provider","category-best-nifty-trading-tips-provider","category-best-option-trading-telegram-channel","category-best-options-tips-provider-in-india","category-best-options-trading-tips-provider-in-india","category-best-paid-stock-recommendation-sites-india","category-best-performing-pms-in-india","category-best-pms-in-india","category-best-portfolio-management-services-in-india","category-best-sebi-registered-advisory-company","category-best-sebi-registered-investment","category-best-sebi-registered-investment-advisor","category-best-sebi-registered-research-analyst","category-best-sebi-registered-stock-tips-provider","category-best-sebi-registered-telegram-channel","category-best-share-market-advisor-in-india","category-best-share-market-advisory-company-in-india","category-best-share-market-consultants-in-india","category-best-share-market-tips","category-best-share-market-tips-provider-in-india","category-best-share-tips-provider-in-india","category-best-stock-advisor","category-best-stock-advisor-websites-in-india","category-best-stock-advisory-service-in-india","category-best-stock-market-advisory-services-in-india","category-best-stock-market-tips-provider-service","category-best-stock-recommendation-service-in-india","category-best-stock-tips-provider-in-india","category-best-stock-tips-provider-in-telegram","category-best-telegram-channel-for-stock-market-tips-in-india","category-business","category-commodity-market","category-currency","category-equity-market","category-equity-research-analyst","category-eqwires-best-investment-advisor-in-india","category-eqwires-best-sebi-registered-investment-advisor-in-india","category-eqwires-best-stock-advisor-websites-in-india","category-eqwires-most-successful-stock-advisors-in-india","category-ethical-sebi-registered-investment-advisor","category-ethical-sebi-registered-research-analyst","category-fact-about-operator-based-calls","category-fii-based-calls","category-foreign-markets","category-free-intraday-stock-tips-for-tomorrow","category-genuine-intraday-tips-provider","category-genuine-stocks-tips-provider","category-googles-highest-ranking-sebi-registered-research-analyst","category-googles-highest-ranking-sebi-registered-stock-advisory-company","category-high-accuracy-intraday-tips","category-how-can-i-make-profit-in-intraday-trading","category-how-to-earn-profit-from-intraday-trading","category-how-to-invest-in-stock-market","category-how-to-make-profit-in-intraday-trading-in-share-market","category-intraday-tips","category-intraday-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